I will be like most of the racing world this afternoon with the majority of my attention on Saratoga and the big Travers matchup, but that doesn’t stop the train from providing in depth analysis of this Saturday Colonial card. In addition to the written word, I also recorded my thoughts on the entire pick five sequence with Mike Pribozie on this week’s In the Money Players’ Podcast.
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Selections
- Race 1: 2-8-5-6
- Race 2: 7-6-1-5
- Race 3: 1-5-6-7
- Race 4: 3-10-1-7
- Race 5: 5-6-3-2
- Race 6: 3-2-8-5
- Race 7: 3-1-2-9
- Race 8: 7-8-2-5
- Race 9: 4-3-9-1
Colonial Downs Race 4: Start to Win (#3) at 5-2 or higher
This has the look of one of the most productive juvenile maiden races of the whole meet as many high profile connections ship in. Graham Motion’s barn will saddle two in this spot as Paraclete (#1) and Love Pack (#7) both make the trip over from Fair Hill. The former is by hot freshman sire Volatile and the latter is out of a mare who was G2P as a 2YO. The problem with both of these runners is debuting juveniles on the dirt is not what the Motion barn does best posting a 7/58 (12%, $1.21 ROI) with that move. The numbers are even worse for Arnaud Delacour who sends out another that’s likely to take money with Pascaline (#2). His barn is 3/29 (10%, $0.70 ROI) with the same filters applied. I like the other West Point Thoroughbred entry and the one that will be donning the black and gold silks. Start to Win (#3) is by Upstart who wins with 16% of his 2YO debut runners and the dam has produced quite a few winners. It’s Cherie DeVaux’s stats with this move that put me over the top as her barn is 9/52 (17%, $2.29 ROI) with 2YO FTS on the dirt. I also could make a case for the runner on the outside as Montador (#10) is by another amazing first our juvenile sire in Nyquist (17%). However, Stidham doesn’t have the same numbers first out that Cherie does and this pedigree tilts a little more towards turf routing than dirt sprinting.
Colonial Downs Race 7: Planet Clare (#3) at 7-2 or higher
The morning line favorite is going to be tough in this spot as Big Brass Bed (#1) has the racing credentials and human connections deserving of being the public choice. She’s also posted well on the inside with this short run to the first turn and possesses the best late kick in the field. I’m just hoping my top pick will get the jump on her as I’ve put Planet Clare (#3) on top for the Keri Brion barn. From watching this filly’s races it seems apparent to me that she doesn’t like to pass horses. That shouldn’t pose a problem today and I foresee her clear on an easy lead which just might allow her to get brave in this spot. The wildcard in the race and one I’d want to include on a good amount of my late pick five tickets is Orderofthephoenix (Ire) (#2). I find it interesting that sharp connections in Team Valor purchased this filly from overseas and bring her back in this spot. Plus, Arnaud Delacour has had success with this move in the past posting a 3/11 (27%, $2.02 ROI) with foreign shippers on the turf.
Colonial Downs Race 9: Kongi (#4) at 6-1 or higher
I’ll admit that finding my top pick in this spot was essentially an exercise in process of elimination. I’m not too keen on the fields that Grey Flannel Boss (#1) and Courageous Mission (#3) come out of and I’m not convinced Bold Rock (#5) really wants turf. Moon Factor (#9) showed speed on debut, but now you’d need to swallow a short price on a barn that’s been cold this meet. That led me to Kongzi (#4) as the top pick who goes out first time for Karen Godsey. While this barn has terrible numbers with 2YO FTS on turf (0/9, 0 ITM) the sire of this colt does not. In addition to being an above average turf sprint sire generally (16%), he’s also 19% with his 2YO debut runners. This colt’s dam was also a turf sprinter running Beyers in the low 70’s in mid-Atlantic allowance races. That’s enough for me to take a shot with in a race crying out for a fresh face.
#TheCheatSheet (Now With Fair Odds!)
Meet Statistics
All
Top Picks: 167-50-32-25 (30%, $1.83); Featured Horses: 48-10-8-8 (21%, $2.35)
Fair Odds Met
Top Picks: 90-23-15-13 (26%, $2.21); Featured Horses: 32-7-5-6 (22%, $2.94)
Grid
Percent of Races Won By: A’s: 51%; B’s: 29%; C’s: 17%; X’s: 3%
