We’ve reached the conclusion of this elongated Colonial meet and it ends with a bang! It all culminates today with the big Labor Day stakes extravaganza that serves as the send-off for 2026 racing at the track. I’ve also participated in a video preview of these races over on the In the Money Media YouTube channel alongside PTF & Will Humphrey. Be sure to check that out here!
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Selections
- Race 1: 5-8-11-10
- Race 2: 5-6-2-9
- Race 3: 2-1-5-9
- Race 4: 3-2-7-6
- Race 5: 1-8-5-7
- Race 6: 2-5-4-7
- Race 7: 6-3-2-4
- Race 8: 10-2-8-4
- Race 9: 11-5-14-13
- Race 10: 9-4-7-1
- Race 11: 2-8-5-3
Colonial Downs Race 5: Baytown Parfait (#1) at 5-1 or higher
This is a pretty interesting allowance race with some promising runners. Edgy (#5) is likely to go off favored after a solid 3rd at this level back closer to the beginning of the meet. However, it’d be tough to stomach this short of a price on a 5YO who has only run four times to date. Other logical contenders include Break Out (#6) and Azam (#8). The former enters on a three-race win streak with the latest coming over the course and distance. I’m a tad against him in this spot just based on how far back he projects to be early. Azam’s connections thought highly enough of him to try the G3-Peter Pa earlier this year and he ran well enough in his last to be a player here. I landed on Baytown Parfait (#1) as the top pick in this spot hoping Paco can send him away from there early and wire this group. I’m intrigued that Michael Campbell picked this spot for this gelding first off the claim for a barn that rarely delves into the claim box. He hasn’t run on dirt since the first two starts of his career back in the first half of 2023, but appears to have put in some very promising works since joining his new trainer.
Colonial Downs Race 8: Fond of You (#10) and/or Soloist (#2) at 7-1 or higher
Based on the morning line, this year’s edition of the Old Dominion Oaks looks to be a wide open affair. I’ve got a slight disagreement with the morning line as I project Storm’s Wake (#8) to go off favored in this spot and probably deservedly so. This filly has been facing the best of her division in the last few starts and even sprung an upset win in the G2-Appalachian earlier this year. I just struggle taking a short price on a filly that might be in the last flight early. Embrace Time (#7) is the favorite on the morning line as a progressive sort for Brad Cox. She too will have to rally from the back of the pack at a short number and it’s interesting that Florent Geroux is opting to ride Dagmara (#11) instead. There’s a chance that filly could prove a thorn in the side of my top pick who is Fond of You (#10). This well-bred Godolphin trainee looked like a new horse switching to the grass breaking her maiden last out and I think there’s a chance the rest of the field leaves her alone on the front end. While it’s not my style to be taking a maiden winner stepping up against winners for the first time in a stakes race, I really liked the way this filly polished off the field late and she should appreciate the added furlong. I also want to make sure I include Soloist (#2) on my tickets if she’s anything close to the 12-1 morning line. This filly looked to be a very solid prospect as a 2YO winning on debut for McPeek and competing in stakes races for the rest of her juvenile campaign. It seems like she’s been rounding into form this year posting her best race last time our in a nose loss at Saratoga and has trained forwardly out of her last start.
Colonial Downs Race 9: The Big Con (GB) (#11) at 6-1 or higher
It’s pretty awesome to see a field of fourteen entered for the G3-Old Dominion Derby given the plethora of races with similar conditions at tracks around the country this time of year. I guess no one is afraid of going up against Supercharger (#14) who was impressive winning his third straight in the G2-Secretariat last time out. However, he was done no favors at the post draw and will likely have to pass all thirteen of his rivals if he wants to continue his win streak. The likely scratch of Gramp’s Legacy (#7) makes Siyouincanada (#13) much more dangerous as a potential wire-to-wire threat. He’s been pretty short prices in a couple spots since his maiden win back in May, but this could be a nice spot under meet’s leading rider Paco Lopez. Fuzzbuster (#5) finished behind Supercharger in the Secretariat last time out and has yet to post a turf win, but gets 5lbs from the favorite in this spot and could turn the tables given his more preferable post. I landed on The Big Con (GB) (#11) as the top pick hoping the Clement barn chose the right charge to send south for this assignment. This barn has had success in this race in the past with Deterministic who coincidentally has been the workmate of The Big Con this summer. This was the wise guy horse heading into the G1-Saratoga Derby, but the trip didn’t work out that day. Now he’s able to go second off the bench and has been training forwardly.
Colonial Downs Race 11: Souper Quest (#2) at 5-1 or higher
We’re hoping to close out the card and the meet in style as a big field of turf sprinters takes center stage in the Da Hoss Stakes. Governor Sam (#8) projects to be a heavy favorite in this spot off his narrow defeat in the Van Clief Stakes last time. He’s proven to have an affinity for this turf course in the past winning the Rosie’s Stakes as a juvenile and figures to be tough in here given he’s re-found that solid form. With the fact Determined Kingdom (#4) is a likely scratch opting for a similar spot up in Saratoga, I’ve landed on Souper Quest (#2) as the top choice. This gelding possesses an abundance of early zip and could be dangerous to wire this group. While he might be better at a flat 5f, he’s proven to see out this distance with the right pace situation. His win in the off-the-turf stakes last time out just proved he’s still in sharp form and I’m pleased to see the barn’s first call rider Sonny Leon opts for this runner instead of the other Casse charge.
#TheCheatSheet
2026 Summer Meet Statistics (thru 9/1)
All
Top Picks: 139-31-23-28 (22%, $1.76); Featured Horses: 45-8-7-6 (19%, $1.97)
Fair Odds Met
Top Picks: 104-21-13-24 (20%, $2.04); Featured Horses: 37-6-5-6 (18%, $2.17)
Grid
Percent of Races Won By: A’s: 52%; B’s: 32%; C’s: 13%; X’s: 4%
