Despite most of my focus being on the racing at Saratoga this weekend, I found a few spots on this evening’s twilight card at Colonial Downs.
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Selections
- Race 1: 4-5-8-2
- Race 2: 3-2-5-6
- Race 3: 10-7-3-1
- Race 4: 6-5-2-7
- Race 5: 2-6-5-7
- Race 6: 1-2-6-3
- Race 7: 2-8-7-6
- Race 8: 10-8-3-7
Colonial Downs Race 3: Anotherhope (#10) at 4-1 or higher
This N2L claiming event drew a bulky field of ten and looks super competitive as evidenced by the rare appearance of three co-favorites on the morning line. Of them, I think Countrycub Couple (#7) is the most dangerous, but also the one most likely to go off the public’s choice. This filly went off favored last out at this level, but now gets an extra sixteenth of a mile to aid her case. She also goes out for popular connections with Brittany Russell near the top of the trainers’ standings. I can see the other two ML favorites compromising each other’s chances with Long Gone Sally (#1) and Tinkatwo (#9) both doing their best running on the front end and you could even throw Genuine Peril (#3) into that foray. That led me to look for an off-the-pace runner and I landed on Anotherhope (#10) as the top pick. She showed two admirable attributes in her maiden-breaker two back with the ability to sit off the pace and some grittiness to win the stretch-battle. I’m willing to draw a line through her turf effort last time with that failed experiment allowing this to not be her first try vs winners.
Colonial Downs Race 5: Wiley Willard (#2) at 6-5 or higher
I’m not trying to beat the likely favorite in this maiden claiming event and view Wiley Willard (#2) as the most likely winner on tonight’s card. This is his first try over the turf course, but I foresee him appreciating the surface switch as his dam, Frivolous Alex, was exclusively a turf horse throughout her career. This gelding also possesses an abundance of early speed which should suit this flat 5f event. It appears that speed will be on full display given the :47.6 breeze six days ago. If he is going to be defeated, it’d likely be by Shear Magic (#6) who returns to grass for the first time this year. While his race at Laurel back in November was a fine enough effort, I don’t foresee him being an attractive enough price to take on the favorite.
Colonial Downs Race 7: Lady Ensign (#2) at 7-2 or higher
A fun group assembled for this VA-Restricted allowance sprinting. I think one of the keys to this race is determining which runners prefer going shorter versus a route of ground. While Quadra (#7) was an odds-on favorite in a VA-Bred stakes last out, I think she might find this 5.5f trip a bit too sharp. Secure’s Hope (#1) and Flame Dancer (#6) both looked good breaking their maidens over this course earlier in the meet, but both got great setups and now this is a much tougher test. I have some trust in the Trombetta barn that they’re willing to give Divine Works (#8) another try on grass and even though the lone turf try was a disaster, it came against open company. However, my top pick is going to be Lady Ensign (#2) who I believe is the best bet on this card. She was ultra-impressive winning an N2L three-back at this distance defeating a 12-horse field by almost 4 lengths. I’m willing to draw a line through the route effort two-back as she’s never handled that distance and her run last time was ruined by severe traffic trouble around the turn. Now she gets in with VA-Restricted company for the first time in her career and to the distance she’s recorded both career wins.
#TheCheatSheet
2025 Summer Meet Statistics (thru 8/16)
All
Top Picks: 129-34-28-19 (26%, $1.72); Featured Horses: 42-9-7-12 (21%, $2.11)
Fair Odds Met
Top Picks: 80-15-21-8 (19%, $1.61); Featured Horses: 31-7-6-8 (23%, $2.45)
Grid
Percent of Races Won By: A’s: 43%; B’s: 36%; C’s: 18%; X’s: 3%
