Getting down to the final few weeks of racing at Colonial Downs with just three more weekends remaining until we close the book on the 2025 season.
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Selections
- Race 1: 7-6-4-5
- Race 2: 2-6-8-1
- Race 3: 2-8-5-6
- Race 4: 2-9-1-3
- Race 5: 2-5-7-3
- Race 6: 8-9-5-6
- Race 7: 2-5-4-7
- Race 8: 3-9-4-2
Colonial Downs Race 4: Morlock (#2) at 3-4 or higher
I’ve admittedly not had much success backing these short-priced favorites as highlight plays in this space during the Colonial meet, but this feels like a colt we’ll be able to lean on. I’m hoping Morlock (#2) proves to be a portmanteau for Andy Beyer’s famous catchphrase “mortal lock.” This colt has racked up the runner-up finishes during the early part of his career finishing second in five of his seven lifetime starts. However, those have all been against much tougher fields than he faces this evening and he appears to have improved based on some encouraging workouts at Keeneland these past couple weeks. I love his pedigree for this demanding one-turn mile being by Bernardini out of St. John’s River who nearly upset the 2011 Kentucky Oaks. As far as exacta partners, I’d be willing to give Gung Ho (#9) another shot as a dirt horse given his only previous try came in his debut. Meanwhile, McZ (#1) and Chowser (#3) have both run well enough at this meet to round out the verticals.
Colonial Downs Race 6: Happy Cat (#8) at 9-2 or higher
In my mind there’s a clear separation between the three contenders and the rest of this field in this claiming race sprinting on the turf. Cactus (#5) is likely to go off favored and makes a ton of sense based on his last four races. All have come in a similar class of race while he didn’t miss the exacta in any of them, I was slightly disappointed he couldn’t get closer to the eventual winner in his last. Frost Mountain (#9) is his chief rival and has already won twice at this meet, once on each surface. His last win was a gritty victory at this level, but I worry a bit that there’s other speed in this race and this might be a tougher field overall. I landed on the contender that I project to be the best price of the three and made Happy Cat (#8) the top choice in this spot. Turning back in distance to 5.5f is not the easiest thing to do, but this Jorge Duarte trainee has already proven adept at this trip when breaking his maiden way back when. He actually showed some tactical speed in his last outing, so I can feel confident he won’t get completely outrun shortening up here. I can see him getting a garden trip in the second flight of horses and trust Karamanos to give him an excellent ride given he hits at over a 30% clip when riding for Duarte.
Colonial Downs Race 8: Its Satisfactual (#3) at 7-2 or higher
This nightcap looks like the most interesting race on the Friday card with seven horses in the body of the race given morning lines between 4:1 and 8:1. I’m not thrilled with either of the shortest two as Celestial Express (#7) disappointed as the favorite against a weaker group last time and Imaginetheodds (#5) hasn’t raced in nearly 15 months. Keri Brion has a pair entered in here that are both dangerous. Bossy Jeans (#2) will be if she can get a cozy trip on the lead, but she’ll have to negotiate an extra half-furlong here whereas Bella Estrela (#4) might appreciate the added ground. It’s always difficult to win right back after a maiden victory, but Ditched (#9) was pretty impressive launching a huge rally to get up after blowing the break last time out and it’s not like this is the toughest N2L you’ll see. I’m using her prominently, but opted to make Its Satisfactual (#3) the top selection. While this filly is just 1/15 lifetime, I feel she’s coming out of the strongest races as she drops down to this $16k level after running for $30k last out. These low-level claiming races with large fields going a route of ground often seem to fall apart late and I trust her to be the one moving fastest at the end.
#TheCheatSheet
2025 Summer Meet Statistics (thru 8/23)
All
Top Picks: 155-40-33-24 (26%, $1.77); Featured Horses: 48-10-7-13 (21%, $2.32)
Fair Odds Met
Top Picks: 96-18-23-13 (19%, $1.75); Featured Horses: 37-8-6-9 (22%, $2.66)
Grid
Percent of Races Won By: A’s: 41%; B’s: 36%; C’s: 19%; X’s: 4%
