It’s a rare Saturday without a stakes race at Colonial Downs this week, but the racing office still has assembled an interesting and competitive card. In addition to the written analysis below, you can check out my thoughts on the entire late pick five sequence in audio form as I joined Mike Pribozie on this week’s In the Money Media Players’ Podcast.
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Selections
- Race 1: 5-4-2-1
- Race 2: 7-2-6-3
- Race 3: 6-4-5-1
- Race 4: 4-10-3-7
- Race 5: 3-1-8-7
- Race 6: 1-8-5-4
- Race 7: 6-3-4-1
- Race 8: 8-1-3-6
- Race 9: 4-3-8-1
Colonial Downs Race 4: Delicate (#4) at 2-1 or higher
The juveniles will be center stage for this event with the majority of the field being first-time starters. Scaratches changed the complexion of this race a bit with the defection of my initial top pick Suzies Pride (#2) and a firster I was willing to bet against in Cumbia (#8). The interesting first-time starter that remains is by freshman sire Volatile who has already sired three debut winners from fifteen to start including impressive Saratoga maiden winner Incentive Pay. Say You Love Me (#10) is a gray filly just like her pops and the Trombetta barn is capable to win out the blocks. However, my top pick is the one horse that already has experience. Delicate (#4) took notable money in her two starts at Churchill Downs and wasn’t disgraced in either effort and this circuit switch might give her the needed class relief. Often times that experience edge is all it takes in this early season juvenile races.
Colonial Downs Race 7: Remuda (#6) at 7-2 or higher
There are no stakes races on the Saturday card, but this turf sprint is more than stake quality in nature. Look no further than the rail-drawn Masen (GB) (#1) to see a runner that was 7-2 in the G1-Fourstardave two summers ago. The question is whether this gelding is going to be suited to the 5.5f distance. He goes out first time for Jordan Blair who can win with these types, but it’s not something I want to take a short price on to figure out. I don’t want to entirely dismiss Alogon (#4). This gelding nearly defeated eventual BC Turf Sprint champion Nobals over this course and distance last summer and has run deceptively well since. I’ll include him in my play, but found two other options more intriguing. A pattern has emerged with the career of Front Run the Fed (#3). He consistently runs in races at the top level of the turf sprint division where he’s overmatched, but when he drops in class for his annual pilgrimage to New Kent, VA, it results in a trip to the winners’ circle. He’s 2/2 over this course and distance and I’m not going to let him run that to 3/3 without me onboard. I’ll use him prominently, but tabbed Remuda (#6) as the top pick. I was taken by this Godolphin charge’s dominant victory back at Laurel last summer when, in his turf sprint debut, he easily dispatched the venerable Arzak. He caught soft turf courses and tough fields in both the Troy and Nearctic, then lacked that same finishing punch when coming off the bench last time. I’m hoping he just needed one off the layoff and will return to that peak performance in this spot. This gray colt should get a nice outside stalking trip under Sheldon Russell.
Colonial Downs Race 8: Judge Davis (#8) at 9-2 or higher
It’s back-to-back high quality turf sprints on this card, so figure-makers rejoice at the added sample size. This event looks loaded with early speed with Power Attack (#1) likely to be the fastest of them all early. This colt has rattled off four consecutive wins, all in front running fashion, but now takes another step up in class and has to deal with some other competition on the front end. I respect him as the potential “speed of the speed,” but wanted to take another option on top knowing Power Attack’s record might lead to an underlay. Judge Davis (#8) hasn’t had the opportunity to run 5.5f on grass too often in his career, but I view those races as most of his best performances. He got a pace to run into when winning an allowance at Keeneland last fall and I’m thinking the same situation could present itself here. While he’s been off the board in his five starts since that win, three of those were at the wrong distance, one he got no pace to run into and last time he actually ran extremely well given the circumstances. I was prepared for some trouble when the comment line says “clip heel, stumble 3/16,” but it was quite jarring to see just how close this guy was to dropping the jock at a pivotal point in the race. That made it all the more impressive when he recovered his momentum and was still able to outfinish today’s rival Maya Prince (#6). If they battle at all up front early on, look for this Shug McGaughey trainee to be mowing them down in the lane.
#TheCheatSheet (Now With Fair Odds!)
Meet Statistics
All
Top Picks: 62-19-11-14 (31%, $2.06); Featured Horses: 18-5-2-6 (28%, $2.84)
Fair Odds Met
Top Picks: 28-9-7-5 (32%, $3.14); Featured Horses: 10-3-2-4 (30%, $3.72)
Grid
Percent of Races Won By: A’s: 48%; B’s: 32%; C’s: 14%; X’s: 5%
