While most eyes, including yours truly, will be trained on the G1 extravaganza being conducted at Saratoga, I’ll have at least some of my attention on these Colonial Downs races that include a couple stakes events for juveniles.
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Selections
- Race 1: 12-5-4-10
- Race 2: 1-8-2-7
- Race 3: 5-3-1-2
- Race 4: 2-5-6-4
- Race 5: 10-1-4-6
- Race 6: 2-4-8-9
- Race 7: 2-1-3-5
- Race 8: 5-2-1-4
- Race 9: 6-4-8-3
Colonial Downs Race 2: Athenix (#1) at 1-1 or higher
I think the most likely winner on the card comes in this second race and my hope is that there’s enough first-time starters with flashy workouts to allow Athenix (#1) to go off at a fair price. This filly was bet down to 3-2 in her debut and I thought she ran an admirable race, it’s just that she ran into a really nice one from the Stidham barn. This barn is very dangerous with juveniles at Colonial with a record of 4/13 (31%, $2.29 ROI) with all 2YO’s who’ve started at the track. Honestly, I would try to link her up in an exacta with Musical Power (#8) who improved last time over grass, but I could see her taking this field a long way on the lead before succumbing to my top pick.
Colonial Downs Race 5: Gosh Sakes (#10) at 4-1 or higher
I’m not thrilled with those likely to vie for favoritism in this spot as both Original Score (#9) and Undertaker (#2) have questions to answer. The former is likely to be bet heavily off being favored in a maiden special weight event with trouble in the comment line, but that was just a VA-Restricted MSW and the trouble in the lane just prevented him from finishing 5th rather than 7th. Undertaker was sent off at 46-1 out the box and ran admirably until the furlong pole, but he gave it up precipitously in the lane and now will be a fraction of that debut price. I’d much rather take Colt Forty Seven (#4) or More Than Cute (#6) out of that spot given they’ll be much higher prices. I think Smols (#1) is super interesting stretching out on the grass here as he’s got a nice post, good early speed, and his dam won over this Colonial turf course a few years back. However, I ultimately landed on Gosh Sakes (#10) as the top pick. This colt’s debut race was washed off the grass, but I’m glad he’s got the experience under his belt. His unraced dam’s two best foals both made their hay as turf/synthetic types. This is a potent move for the Kelsey Danner barn posting a record of 7/18 (39%, $5.09 ROI) with juveniles going dirt-to-turf in maiden races.
Colonial Downs Race 10: Tasker (#6) at 6-1 or higher
This nightcap looks pretty wide open on paper as there’s quite a few dropdowns in this maiden claiming event. One of those is Salming (#3) who goes out for dangerous connections in Brittany and Sheldon Russell, but he really didn’t put in much of a run last out despite getting a pace to close into. Message of Hope (Ire) (#4) and Harbe (#8) both go out for Florida-based connections and figure to vie for favoritism here. The former took a step forward first time in Saffie’s barn down at Gulfstream and certainly has the pedigree to handle this switch back to the turf. Meanwhile, Harbe is trying the grass for the first time and while there’s a little bit of pedigree to handle it being by Maclean’s Music, Crichton is just 1/17 first-time turf in maiden races when excluding first-time starters. I landed on a bit of a wildcard in this spot and made Tasker (#6) the top pick. I doubt we get the 20-1 he’s listed on the morning line, but anything in the high single-digits will be fair against this group. He was just beaten two lengths in a maiden special weight at Laurel last time and his only try for a tag saw him get placed second after being bumped hard by the foe who crossed the wire first. Here’s hoping history repeats itself as jockey Rosado and trainer Madison Meyers teamed up for a nice priced winner to close Friday’s card.
#TheCheatSheet
2025 Summer Meet Statistics (thru 8/22)
All
Top Picks: 146-38-31-24 (26%, $1.78); Featured Horses: 47-10-7-13 (21%, $2.37)
Fair Odds Met
Top Picks: 91-17-22-13 (19%, $1.71); Featured Horses: 36-8-6-9 (22%, $2.73)
Grid
Percent of Races Won By: A’s: 41%; B’s: 36%; C’s: 19%; X’s: 3%
