We’re back in action for another Saturday covering this Colonial Downs meet. Only one stakes race is present, but it’s an interesting mashup of older fillies and mares sprinting on the dirt. Couple that with surrounding races that have full fields aplenty and it should make for an exciting afternoon down in New Kent, VA. Note that post time has been moved up one hour to 11:30am due to the high temperatures.
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Selections
- Race 1: 6-4-7-8
- Race 2: 3-7-6-4
- Race 3: 8-4-5-6
- Race 4: 5-10-12-1
- Race 5: 5-10-7-3
- Race 6: 12-5-9-4
- Race 7: 3-2-5-10
- Race 8: 1-5-8-6
- Race 9: 8-12-4-7
Colonial Downs Race 3: Wisconsin Gal (#8) at 7-2 or higher
The favorite in this starter allowance turf sprint is likely to be Chitchatchitchat (#4) who goes out for dangerous connections in Michael Trombetta for the Live Oak ownership group. This filly has done her best work going short on the grass, but I worry a touch about her being left with too much to do at a short price. Serene Spirit (#6) is in pretty good form since getting to this new barn winning two of her last three with the only loss where she experienced trouble at the 1/2 mile pole. This might be a bit tougher group than what she’s been facing recently. Wickedwithbourbon (#5) gets back on the turf for the first time since the opening two starts of his career and I’ve identified him as a price to use in this spot. Keith Desormeaux’s charges usually put a good showing in at this meet. My top pick is a different horse getting back to turf in Wisconsin Gal (#8). She’s only been on the surface once before and that was a salty stakes race. I thought that was an improved effort for the new barn last time just getting caught late at this level at Churchill going 6.5f on dirt. While there’s other speed in this race, she’s drawn widest of them all which will give her jockey options of when to make the defining move.
Colonial Downs Race 5: Pure Bliss (#5) at 2-1 or higher
This N2L turf sprint looks extremely competitive to me which is why I wouldn’t want to default to Eddie Haskell (#1) who is listed at 2-1 on the ML. While there’s big names on the human connections side with Mike Maker training, his win came in near wire-to-wire fashion and I don’t like that he has to break from the rail in a race where others are faster than him early. Timeframe (#7) is probably the class of the field as he broke is maiden in an open maiden special weight at Woodbine last fall and even contested the G1-Summer Stakes. He showed speed before fading going 8f at Gulfstream and this is now a drop in class, but the flat five will be tough to navigate and he could be out the back early. Ryo Mo (#10) would be the wildcard for me in this spot as his only turf try previously was when he was 94-1 at Kentucky Downs. He’s another where 5f might be a bit short for him, but his form is dirtied up racing on other surfaces. My top pick is Pure Bliss (#5) as I think this one can blast off early and not look back. These 5f sprints are over in the blink of an eye and this filly has experience in them breaking her maiden at the Meadowlands last fall and running a creditable third in a Penn National allowance last time. Now she drops in for a tag, but gets a significant weight break as a filly facing the boys.
Colonial Downs Race 7: Antisocial (#3) at 3-1 or higher
A full field of turf sprinters is scheduled to contest this N2X allowance event and it’s unclear who will even go off favored. I’m not enthralled with the chances of either short price on the morning line as Louie the Sun King (#1) lost to a big longshot in his race last out and I don’t think that field was as strong as this one. And Uwish (#6) is the ML favorite, but all of his best work on the turf has been at the flat 5f distance so that extra sixteenth of a mile could catch up with him. I am a huge fan of Antisocial (#3) in this spot and view him as the most likely winner in a race where he probably won’t be favored. He’s proven an affinity for this turf course in the past with an allowance win and a third in the G2-Secretariat last fall. While those were both going a route of ground, I find it notable that he was sent off at 9-2 against that salty group of turf sprinters up at Saratoga on Belmont Stakes weekend. The effort in his last start was disappointing, but that came on less than three weeks rest and maybe he’s going to be better sprinting. This is the time to take a chance, because if he’s anything near the horse he was at 3, he should beat this group. If any horse is going to wire this field it would be River Seine (Ire) (#2). This is a tougher field than the one she just bossed at Laurel last time, but it’s interesting connections take a shot with this filly against the boys here.
#TheCheatSheet
Rules of thumb for scratches: Fair odds move proportionally to account for the scratched horse(s). If a lone ‘A’ scratches, move up all ‘Bs’ to ‘A’ line.
2026 Summer Meet Statistics (thru 7/16)
All
Top Picks: 35-11-7-10 (31%, $2.15); Featured Horses: 11-3-1-3 (27%, $3.65)
Fair Odds Met
Top Picks: 26-9-3-8 (35%, $2.67); Featured Horses: 11-3-1-3 (27%, $3.65)
Grid
Percent of Races Won By: A’s: 63%; B’s: 20%; C’s: 11%; X’s: 6%
