This Saturday is the biggest day of racing for Colonial Downs with its ‘Festival of Racing’ that comprises multiple graded stakes highlighted by the G1-Arlington Million. To help drum up some excitement for the marquee event, I’m providing picks and plays for all four Colonial cards this week beginning with this eight-pack of flat races scheduled to go on Thursday.
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Selections
- Race 1: NO PICKS (Jump Race)
- Race 2: NO PICKS (Jump Race)
- Race 3: NO PICKS (Jump Race)
- Race 4: 3-7-8-1
- Race 5: 6-3-5-2
- Race 6: 5-3-4-1
- Race 7: 5-9-8-3
- Race 8: 4-6-1-5
- Race 9: 4-7-6-1
- Race 10: 8-4-3-5
- Race 11: 4-8-3-5
Colonial Downs Race 8: Sorry Not Sorry (#4) at 8-1 or higher
There’s some question marks surrounding a few of the logicals in this $12.5k claimer. While Valiant Honor (#1) looks to be loose on the lead, you have to wonder what kind of form she’s bringing here after that dismal effort first time outside of the Saffie Joseph barn. Battleshipper (#5) drops in for a tag after competing exclusively in allowance optional claimers the past year, but switching from the 4.5f Charles Town races can be a bit of a burden. I have fewer knocks on the morning line favorite Lady Zeta (#6) and view her as strictly the horse to beat given she just missed over the course and distance last time at a level arguably higher than this. However, I’m not keen on taking super short prices in races like this so will take a shot with Sorry Not Sorry (#4) as the top pick. This IN-Bred caught sloppy racetracks in each of her last two dirt tries and those Oaklawn races prior were much tougher than this spot. I like to see that Jareth Loveberry picks up the mount for a barn he’s had success with in the past year and while she might not be 20-1, anything near double-digit odds is worth taking the plunge.
Colonial Downs Race 9: Luca Machine (#4) at 7-1 or higher
There’s plenty of ways to go in this N1X turf sprint with no real standout on paper. I’m guessing Virtuosity (#5) goes off the favorite in this spot after a 3rd place finish at this level last time out. I know Firmantown (#6) was a longer price than him in their common race, but I think he ran just as well and will likely present longer odds this afternoon as well. Daring Venture (#7) is in good form for the dangerous Brittany Russell barn, but will likely need to rally from last and I can’t see him going off higher than 7-2 or so. He should get the pace setup he needs, assuming this field holds together as both Neonate (#1) and Mischievous Richie (#3) want to go forward. I landed on another runner who will likely be closing in this spot and made Luca Machine (#4) my top pick. I liked what I saw from a couple of his runs late last year to notch wins at the distance at Laurel before he didn’t get his requisite setup in the 2025 finale. Now he’s second off the bench after a useful return effort at Penn National last time which came at a distance probably shorter than his best. They don’t team up often but jockey Forest Boyce and trainer Ned Allard hit at a 25% clip together over the last year.
Colonial Downs Race 11: Sav’n Money (#4) at 7-2 or higher
The finale on the Thursday card looks to feature a pretty heavy favorite as Sun Above (#8) will try to notch his second victory in four starts. I think he’s far and away the most likely winner given he won at this distance on debut, then faced a salty group in a stakes at Aqueduct before narrowly missing at 12-1 in an open allowance at the end of June and now drops into VA-Restricted company. However, he’s a deep closer and while I respect this barn, I usually back its runners when more of a price. The logical alternative would be Then What Time (#9) who actually ran pretty well on the stretch out last time. I made Sav’n Money (#4) the top pick hoping we get a price on this runner who I believe is returning to his best surface. One could argue he hasn’t been in a reasonable spot since he broke his maiden as a 2YO over a year ago at Lone Star. That race came routing on the grass where he was able to get a nice stalk-and-pounce trip similar to the one I envision for this afternoon. He actually didn’t run all the bad finishing 4th in the Star De Naskra Stakes last time out which shows he’s still in good form and actually still has upside as a 3YO.
#TheCheatSheet
2026 Summer Meet Statistics (thru 7/29)
All
Top Picks: 61-17-11-14 (28%, $1.88); Featured Horses: 19-5-4-4 (26%, $2.81)
Fair Odds Met
Top Picks: 45-13-5-12 (29%, $2.30); Featured Horses: 16-4-2-4 (25%, $3.14)
Grid
Percent of Races Won By: A’s: 57%; B’s: 28%; C’s: 10%; X’s: 5%
