Alarms might need to be set in order to bet the races from Colonial Downs on Thursday as high temperatures have forced the card to start at 9am with three steeplechase races before the flat racing commences at 10:25 beginning in race 4. I’ll be covering all five days of closing week at the track as we look to end the meet strong.
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Selections
- Race 1: No Picks (Jump)
- Race 2: No Picks (Jump)
- Race 3: No Picks (Jump)
- Race 4: 4-5-7-1
- Race 5: 8-3-7-6
- Race 6: 1-6-7-4
- Race 7: 2-6-3-1
- Race 8: 11-7-4-8
- Race 9: 9-8-10-11
- Race 10: 8-10-9-7
- Race 11: 8-6-12-7
Colonial Downs Race 7: Phil’s Prince (#2) at 5-1 or higher
I’m willing to admit that Outrunner (#6) is going to be tough to beat in this $50k N2L. He’s even money on the morning line and likely to go even shorter than that, but while this is a significant drop in class I wasn’t a fan of how he finished up the final sixteenth of his last race. Main rival Golf Cart Ryder (#1) also is taking a drop in class, but his last effort was even more unforgivable tiring steadily through the lane. I landed on Phil’s Prince (#2) for whom this class drop makes a ton of sense. He broke his maiden over this course at 19-1 last summer and ran some respectable races in N1X company last fall at Laurel. Now he starts second off the layoff for a barn that rarely has them cranked up to win off a break. I’d imagine he got a good amount of fitness out of that last effort contesting the pace over yielding ground. While I don’t think he’ll be the 8-1 listed on the ML given the connections, If Ever (#3) is also one to consider. He’s yet another class dropper coming off a poor performance, but at least he had the excuse of being 3-4 wide in his first start over a route of ground.
Colonial Downs Race 9: Enigmatic (#9) at 10-1 or higher
There’s no clear standout in this open $16k claimer going 8.5f on the grass and eleven are slated to try it. I could argue Mrs. Katz (#10) is the horse to beat shipping in from Monmouth, but I worry she might have to be a few more lengths back in the early stages than she’s accustomed to given this larger field. Americandreammaker (#11) has been on a bit of a tear as of late winning her last three starts, but I think the win streak stops here as this is a subtle step up in class coming off a negative barn change. Let’s Dance Again (#8) is super dangerous if allowed to set a controlled pace on the front end as she’s done in his last two turf starts en route to victories. I’d use her prominently, but ultimately opted for a larger price for my top pick. Enigmatic (#9) is the type of horse I have to play in this spot as she returns to turf for the first time since her career debut in late 2023. That race came at Kentucky Downs where she was bet down to 5-1 and set the pace before finishing a respectable 4th. She’s made 24 starts since, but just now returns to grass. She worked over the turf earlier this week and I’m hoping this is the surface she was meant for all along. She should get a beautiful one-over stalking trip right outside the main speed and we’ll just have to see if she’s good enough.
Colonial Downs Race 11: Renovator (#8) at 6-1 or higher
Another large field is set to try this turf route in the $16k Mdn Claimer nightcap. Daw Samaa (#12) is likely to go off a heavy favorite in this spot, but given his 0/15 record and my general aversion to taking short-priced Jamie Ness horses at Colonial, I’ll look elsewhere. I nearly made his main rival Hill Country (#6) the top pick as I liked him on opening day of the meet in an open MSW, but as the meet wore on and he’s now 0/6 at even finishing in the top four I’m beginning to think this colt might not have much talent, though it might not take much to still prove best against this group. I landed on Renovator (#8) as the top pick in this spot as I at least know this gelding is in fair form. He made his first turf start against maiden claiming company last out and looked pretty good until late stretch. The race ratings that I look at have that as a tougher field than the one he meets this afternoon and I’ve got his projected trip as in the first flight behind three no-hopers in the early stages. The 8f distance is a bit of a question mark, but he’s by Mendelssohn and the dam won routing on grass, so I’m hopeful he’ll see out the trip.
#TheCheatSheet
2026 Summer Meet Statistics (thru 9/1)
All
Top Picks: 139-31-23-28 (22%, $1.76); Featured Horses: 45-8-7-6 (19%, $1.97)
Fair Odds Met
Top Picks: 104-21-13-24 (20%, $2.04); Featured Horses: 37-6-5-6 (18%, $2.17)
Grid
Percent of Races Won By: A’s: 52%; B’s: 32%; C’s: 13%; X’s: 4%
