On the countdown, only three cards left at Presque Isle Downs. Let’s make this last Tuesday a profitable one with some deep fields.
All times EDT
RACE 1 – 6 furlongs, Maiden Special Weight Post Time: 3:30 p.m
Quinntopia (#3) was on the wrong end of a three-way photo finish last time out while leaving his other competitors nearly 6 lengths behind. There is some promise in first-time starter An Album Cover (#4) after turning a 5 furlong work in a minute, and betting on Tim Girten trainees has paid off in the past with a $2.13 ROI. Red Roy (#5) is a half-sibling to a horse well-known at Presque Isle, Outhustle, who won on debut here and has won 8-of-18 starts on the Erie tapeta. If he’s still 8-1 on the board, that’s where the money should go.
Race 1 selections:3-4-5
RACE 2 – 6 ½ furlongs, claiming $5,000 Post Time: 3:57
Valentine Bug (#8) takes the drop in class and has come in well-prepared with a trio of top three finishes in his last three starts. Summerfest (#5) would have to stay in form to compete here, but I think it’s possible for this horse to manage and kick home late. I think the race Night Ride (#6) comes out of will run back rather well, leading me to slot him in third.
Race 2 selections:8-5-6
RACE 3 – 6 furlongs, Claiming $5,000 Post Time: 4:24
Calvary Kat (#6) at 12-1 is a price that overlooks the depth of her competition at the higher claiming tags, especially considering she’s making only her second start since July. For similar reasons La Crema (#7) at 12-1 just doesn’t make sense on paper given who she’s faced across both allowance and claiming company. Vanishing Wish (#1) is, in all fairness, a tough horse to beat on the lead but she caught a very biased track last time out that enabled her front-running style.
Race 3 selections:6-7-1
RACE 4 – 6 furlongs, Claiming $16,000 Post Time: 4:51
Tworly Bluebell (#5) should be hard to beat, though her worst race this year was most certainly her last one. But Seriously (#3) has potential to emerge from the layoff in strong order and Tim Girten has great ROI with a horse coming off the claim. Downtownritabrown (#4) should be a part of the early pace and I’ll be interested to see how she handles the surface change from turf to tapeta.
Race 4 selections:5-3-4
RACE 5 – 6 furlongs, Allowance Optional Claiming Post Time: 5:18
Chef’s Kiss (#1) ran a game third in the Presque Isle Debutant on Masters day and has continued to work well over the PID surface with a half-mile work clocking in at 47 seconds flat. Thegreatestislove (#5) comes off a winning debut but will need another late kick to find paydirt (pay-tapeta?). Grandes Suenos (#3) had an impressive win two starts back but had a puzzling last-place effort in the FDJ Memorial Stakes. Which version of him shows up?
Race 5 selections:1-5-3
RACE 6 – 1 mile 70 yards, Claiming $5,000 Post Time: 5:45
Hold Your Applause (#7) has hit his stride towards the end of the season with back-to-back wins, but I think the real value is Starship Empire (#6) coming off a clunker race that’s kind of an outlier in his form. Persisten (#4) had a strong first showing in Michael Rodgers’ barn and has some framework to build on in his second start.
Race 6 selections:7-6-4
RACE 7 – 6 furlongs, Claiming $8,000 Post Time: 6:12
This race has some incredible depth. Nicole’s Will (#4) is a good price assuming she returns to form in this race, but the real potential value is Hotline Blink (#5) who turned a 68 Beyer in her only start at PID, a winning effort to boot. Snowname (#3) has won two of her last three starts and should be leaning on her class here to stay in the money.
Race 7 selections:5-4-3
RACE 8 – 1 mile 70 yards, Claiming $5,000 Post Time: 6:39
Everdoit (#4) comes in looking for something to save his form, and it’s possible the tapeta revives his season here. R Admiral (#8) is the face of consistency and a safe bet to slot into second. Despite all the small things against him, I’m slotting in Gliding Afleet (#5) for third.
Race 8 selections:4-8-5
