Keeneland Full Card Analysis – Wednesday, 10/21/26 – By Eric Solomon

The final week of the 2026 Fall Meet at Keeneland starts with an eight race card this Wednesday afternoon. First post this afternoon is set for 1:00 (EDT).

I’ll be covering this exciting meet on the ITM Blog, along with posting some updates and thoughts from time to time on Twitter @EricSolomon718. Feel free to reach out!

Race 1:

The Wednesday card starts with a $75K maiden claiming race for two year olds going six furlongs. Night Knight (#8) gets back on the dirt after trying open maiden special weight company on the grass in his last start at Kentucky Downs. His debut in a maiden auction race at Ellis wasn’t awful, especially considering that the winner came back to score in a stakes race at Delaware. He defected from a tougher spot last week in favor of this spot. Black Jacket Crazy (#1) debuts for Steve Asmussen in this race after some decent works here and at Ellis. Asmussen trains his full brother who just missed in his debut at Churchill. That one is still searching for his first win, but he’s been close in several starts. By My Standards gets 17% winners with firsters in maiden claiming company sprinting on the dirt. Magical Mikel (#2) is the morning line favorite dropping in for a tag for the first time. He was well beaten in a two turn maiden special weight at the beginning of the meet. He drops for a tag and adds blinkers for the first time. 

Race 2:

Three year olds and up will go 1 1/16 miles on the dirt in this $20K beaten claiming race. All nine runners qualified under the N3L condition. First of His Name (#7) makes his third start off the layoff for Andrew McKeever. He was claimed for $15K at Turfway back in February, but he was sidelined for six months. He was rusty in his first start at Ellis, but he ran better last out when getting back to two turns at Horseshoe Indy. He had a strong race on this course last year and at longer odds, I’ll hope that he is trending back in the right direction. Mr Randy (#4) ships here from Presque Isle where he was rather sharp when facing beaten $25K claimers there at two turns. All of his transitional dirt races came in sprints, but his form in those races suggests to me that he’ll handle this. On deeper tickets, Aerate (3) is worth considering. The distance is a question mark, but his first race off the layoff when going a one turn mile was not bad. He closed well to get into 4th that day after being a bit sluggish in the early going. He’s only started twice at two turns, but the pedigree is there.

Race 3:

Two year old fillies will go 6 ½ furlongs in a $150K maiden claiming race. There are six first time starters facing five experienced runners in this race. The standard that the firsters will have to come up to comes from Fair Practice (#5). She was close in her second career start which came at this level over at Saratoga last month. She was narrowly defeated by her stablemate, who came back to win an allowance race earlier at this meet. Tyler Gaffalione comes into the week tied with Irad Ortiz for the leading rider and he’ll get the assignment today. There’s two first timers that I’ll be using here, Midnight Sage (#2) and Livvo (#4). Midnight Sage is a bomb in this race, starting off at 30-1. Michael Campbell doesn’t debut many two year olds, but he has won with 3 of the 10 that he has debuted in the last five years. The dam has foaled 11 runners to make it to the track and three of them were winners at first asking. Maxfield gets 23% winners from his runners debuting in dirt sprint races. Albin Jimenez is riding with a lot of confidence, winning with three of nine starters at this meet thus far. She has all of the makings of a live longshot in this race. I’ll play her on top, while using the others on the A line. Livvo would also make sense debuting in this race. Her Belmont works are solid for Mark Casse, who turns to John Velasquez to ride. Johnny V. was red hot to start off at this meet, but he’s cooled off over the last two weeks. The dam was a debut winner and her sire, McKinzie, gets 13% winners with his debuting dirt sprinters. 

Race 4:

The Late Pick-5 begins with a $20K starter allowance going seven furlongs. Two Seven O (#2) takes on elders and stretches out to seven furlongs for the first time in his career. While the distance is a question mark, it’s a question mark for just about everyone in this field. He’s been a very sharp horse for David Fawkes, who claimed him for a small $20K tag back in November. He won that race, but he turned a corner for his new connections, winning his first four starts, including two stakes wins. After winning the Bachelor Stakes at Oaklawn, he followed that up with a win in the Dade Park Dash on the turf at Ellis. He’s 0-3 in his last three starts, all of which have been at 5 ½ furlongs on the grass. He’s faced tough fields in each of those races and I think he might be better on the dirt. He closed a ton of ground to get up for 4th last out in a stakes quality allowance race. I trust him more than most in this race. The backup for me is another three year old, Tiz Mary’s Comet (#1). The top pick has bested him the three times that they have met. It certainly seems odd that Two Seven O would be 6-1 on the morning line and he would be 4-1. However, his last effort in N3L $30K starter allowance company at Churchill was sharp. The human connections could also come into play as Jose Ortiz and Sharp have a lot more wins at this meet than Francisco Arrieta and David Fawkes. However, I trusted Arrieta with the rapport that he has with Two Seven O.

Race 5:

Two year olds will go 1 1/16 miles on the dirt in this maiden special weight contest. Kenny McPeek always seems to have success in late season two year old races, especially with horses going two turns. Today, he’ll debut Majestic Valor (#3), who has the look of a very capable colt that he trains on behalf of Stoneleigh Farm. His full sister was a debut winner at two turns on Tapeta at Turfway. She would go on to be second in the Bourbonette Oaks and she won the Valley of the Vapors Stakes at Oaklawn in her third and final start. The works are sharp and Jose Ortiz takes the mount, which is a good sign at Keeneland as they have connected 25% of the time when teaming up. Jackpot Rocket (#2) makes his third career start and his first at two turns. His debut at Saratoga in August was ordinary, but he was definitely sharper when stretching out to seven furlongs in his second start. As a son of Tapit, it can be assumed that he’ll move forward in route races on the dirt. Mott is only 1-14 at the met, but his horses have been running better in the second half of this meet. On deeper tickets, Grand Larceny (#5) could be a live longshot on the stretchout. He debuted at Belmont on the re-opening day program last month. He broke okay, but was trending in the wrong directions throughout. It’s never easy to debut at a one turn mile, so perhaps the addition of blinkers along with the move to two turns can help him out. The fact that he cost $650K at the OBS Sale in April tells me that there should be some more ability than he showed on debut. 

Race 6:

The $3 Late Pick-3 starts with a race N4X allowance race for fillies and mares sprinting 5 ½ furlongs on the turf course. Big Trouble (#6) and Lovely Emma (#8) met here in the spring in an allowance race with Lovely Emma winning by two lengths. I think she has the tactical edge in this race as well. She is at her best when she’s close to the front end, but she hasn’t quite been able to work out those trips over the last few starts. He did not look comfortable over the Tapeta in the Presque Isle Downs Masters last month and three starts back, she missed the break and tried rushing to the leaders, which rarely works out. When you put a line through those two races, she has been steadily improving in her four year old campaign. There isn’t a wealth of early speed to contend with, so I think Irad Ortiz will have her forwardly placed in this spot, making it harder for Big Trouble to run her down. She is the class of this field as cleared the second and third level allowance conditions in stakes races. She has finished second and third three times as many times as she’s won races, which makes me a little nervous about taking too short of a price on her. 

Race 7: 

Three year olds and up will go 1 1/16 miles on the dirt in this N1X allowance race. This is another race where there’s a favorite who is a very nice horse that runs big races, but he often seems to come up short. Pagode (#4) keeps firing, but he keeps coming up short at this first level allowance condition. There are some gaps between starts and he was sold for $255K this year. He broke his maiden in a 6 ½ furlong sprint on debut on the Tapeta. He’s one to use underneath and I’ll put him on a few deeper saver tickets, but I’m going to try to beat him. Freddie B (#3) is another live horse on the card for Kenny McPeek. He had two nice one mile races at Saratoga this summer out of the Wilson Chute. He moved back to Belmont where he ran 6th at this level in a one turn mile race. I like the two turns will suit him better in this race. He should be ahead of Pagode when they turn for home and that isn’t great with passing horses. Wonder Mist (#5) is a three year old that needs to move up a bit, but he’s a well bred Candy Ride gelding who just missed in the St. Louis Derby when trying two turns on the dirt for the first time in his career. Since a dismal debut last summer at Kentucky Downs, he’s been in the money in his last six starts. 

Race 8:

Two year old fillies will go 1 1/16 miles on the turf in this maiden special weight race that closes out the afternoon. There’s a lot to like with Waterman’s Song (#11) for Cherie DeVaux and Jose Ortiz. The Derby winning duo teams up with this daughter of Blue Point. His North American runners are 4-14 in their first route races on the turf. The dam has produced Special Wan, who was a debut winner overseas and a multiple graded stakes winner here in the States. Her other foal to race here, Yerwanthere, was also a debut winner and she was graded stakes placed here in the U.S. DeVaux has a strong record with debuting runners in turf route races. The post isn’t great, but I think she’ll be a runner. Follow Your Heart (#10) is a Flightline filly that ran well to be second in her debut when sprinting at Saratoga. The winner of that race came back to win the Grade 3 Matron Stakes at Belmont two weeks ago. The dam has produced a runner that was a two turn winner on turf and two of the six Flightline babies that routed on the turf were winners. Majorbrowniepoints (#2) defected from a race at this condition last week that was taken off the turf. I think this race came up tougher, but she was impressive when making her first turf start at Kentucky Downs in a 6 ½ furlong sprint last month. She closed a ton in that race and while Jose Ortiz takes the assignment on the top pick, Johnny V. is not a bad fallback plan. 

How to Read the Picks-Grid:

This grid has become my favorite tool for helping to handicap a race card in advance. Keep in mind that these designations for me are flexible and may change depending on how the value in the betting market shifts leading up to post time. 

The “Top Pick” Column is fairly self-explanatory, meaning that it’s the horse that I think will win the race. 

The “A” Column is reserved for the horses that I feel have the best chances of winning. The more horses that are in this column per race, the more wide open I think the race might be. For multi-race wagers, these horses will be on the bulk of my tickets. If I’m betting on the vertical wagers (exactas, trifectas, superfectas), these horses would likely be candidates to be keyed on top.

The “B” Column are horses that I think have a chance of winning, but I don’t like them as much as the runners on the A line. If I put a morning line favorite in this column, I’m trying to find ways to beat them. For me, favorites on the B line typically will either be used underneath in the vertical exotics, or perhaps not at all. They’ll typically be used on some back up tickets in the multi-race wagers, especially in races where the other options aren’t as strong. I might also relegate a horse to the B line if I don’t think there’s good value on that horse with their morning line odds or how I think the race will be bet. For example, If I think a horse should be closer to 5-1, and their morning line odds are 3-1, he might start on the B line for me. If the betting public moves the line closer to the odds that I feel are fair, and I like the horse’s chances, I could move them up when I’m playing the race. 

The “C” Column is reserved as a deep backup for me. Again, if a favorite is on the C line, that’s me telling you that I don’t like them that much in this race. I definitely won’t be using them on top in any vertical wager, as I’ll be trying to beat them with most of my tickets. Sometimes this spot will be reserved for a crazy longshot that checks one of the boxes I might be looking for when playing horses at long odds.