Colonial Downs Analysis – Virginia Derby Day 2024 – By Michael Domabyl

The somber feeling of it being closing day at Colonial Downs is counterbalanced with the fact that the meet ends with a bang as an awesome card is assembled for Saturday. The Virginia Derby holds a special place in my heart as it was an annual pilgrimage that I made with my dad every year from 2009-2013. That was when I was growing up in North Carolina and Colonial Downs was the closest track so it was always a highlight to take in their big stakes races (and maybe peek at some NYRA/Churchill simulcasting). Looking back at the record books and it’s pretty awesome the list of VA Derby winners from all time greats Kitten’s Joy, English Channel, and Gio Ponti to personal favorites Battle of Hastings and English Bee. It’s cool to have seen Colonial Downs really blossom these last few years and with the Arlington Million day card becoming the focal point of the summer meet, this card has played second fiddle the last couple years. While this marks the end of the Virginia Derby as it’s traditional turf race for 3YO’s, it will get new life as a prep race (with points!) on the Kentucky Derby trail next March.

Be sure to check out the audio version of my thoughts on the races as Mike Pribozie hosted Will Humphrey and me on a standalone podcast covering the 12% takeout late pick five. You can find that here or wherever you get your podcasts.

Follow me on Twitter: @mdomhokie

Selections

• Race 1: 11-6-4-9
  
• Race 2: 8-2-6-5
• Race 3: 5-1-6-2
• Race 4: 4-2-6-5
• Race 5: 2-3-1-6
• Race 6: 5-3-11-1
• Race 7: 3-1-2-6
• Race 8: 5-2-8-9
• Race 9: 7-1-3-4
• Race 10: 11-12-3-4
  
• Race 11: 4-1-5-2
• Race 12: 5-7-1-2

Colonial Downs Race 6: Sharedashenanigans (#5) at 5-1 or higher

While on the surface the Rosie’s Stakes appears to be a nondescript listed stakes race on a crowded summer schedule, it’s had Breeders’ Cup implications before with 2019 winner Four Wheel Drive going on to win the Juvenile Turf Sprint and 2023 winner No Nay Mets went off favored in that race. Governor Sam (#3) has almost an identical look to last year’s winner as both colts are trained by George Weaver, owned in part by Houston Astros infielder Alex Bregman and enter this race of a win in the Tyro Stakes at Monmouth. However, while his older stablemate towered over his rivals on figures, this appears to be a more evenly matched affair. A horse like Out On Bail (#11) makes a ton of sense exiting races on the NYRA circuit, but I went to one who might have more upside. Initially my top pick was I’m Otter Here (#2), but he’s cross-entered in a stakes at Kentucky Downs on Sunday and will go there. I’m very interested in Sharedashenanigans (#5) who tries turf for the first time in this spot and is a filly facing the boys. She couldn’t be bred any better for it by Into Mischief out of 2019 Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Fillies Turf winner Sharing. Even though it was on dirt and a short field, the maiden race she won has proven to be pretty productive with two of the other four in the field having broken their maiden since and another is multiple stakes placed. The 15-1 on the morning line for a Graham Motion trainee, but anything in the mid single digits range is fair.

Colonial Downs Race 8: Isivunguvungu (SAf) (#5) at 3-1 or higher

Another race with potential Breeders’ Cup implications is on tap as the winner of this race last year, Nobals, went on to claim the Turf Sprint in November. This year’s edition of the Da Hoss Stakes looks to be an absolute war and there’s plenty of early zip in the race. While it’s been reported Bear River (#3) will opt for the bigger purse down at Kentucky Downs, the presence of horses like Cruzin Man (#12) and That’s Right (#14) trying to clear from the outside. Historically, that would’ve worked against a horse like Nothing Better (#8) who did some damage in stakes races last year as a front-runner. However, in his 7YO season he’s proven to be more tractable which is a necessary trait if he wants to win this spot. I don’t have a major issue with Dream Shake (#9) who has a chance to repeat his winning effort in the Van Clief from earlier in the meet especially if a similar pace setup develops. The only problem is you got 8-1 that day and he’s likely to be less than half of that this afternoon. Sweeet Cherry Pie (#2) moves up in my mind after all the scratches and my colleague Will Humphrey made a good case for him on the pod. My top pick is going to be the new face and that’s South African shipper Isivunguvungu (#5). While he hasn’t run since January, this gelding put together quite the 2023 campaign winning multiple Group 1’s in his home country. While it remains to be seen how he classes up with these, I trust he’s in the right hands with Graham Motion calling the shots. Graham’s barn has had success with this in the past posting a record of 4/17 (24%, $3.26 ROI) with foreign shippers coming off 180+ day layoffs on grass. The jockey assignment is also a positive as Manny Franco picks up the mount and we’ve seen that in the past jockeys from the NYRA colony poach these stakes races.

Colonial Downs Race 9: Deep Satin (#7) at 5-2 or higher

Another full field is assembled for the Virginia Oaks where your guess is as good as mine as to who will be the favorite. I made Deep Satin (#7) the top pick and view her as the most likely winner in the race. She showed a new dimension last time when able to put herself in the game early on and that versatility will allow her to adapt to whatever pace scenario develops on Saturday. This Cherie DeVaux trainee has been keeping good company as the horse who defeated her two back Mixologist won an N1X at Saratoga late in the meet and the winner of her debut Waves of Mischief took down the G3-Pucker Up.  She was scratched from a potential start in the G2-Lake Placid at Saratoga due to an illness, but has worked a couple times since and all systems appear to be on go. As far as some others worth including, I’d look to Style Points (#1) who drew well on the rail gets Manny Franco to ride, plus Clement has brought the right runners to Colonial this meet. She was defeated by Belle of Rights (#13) in the Christina Stakes last time, but they flip-flip positions in terms of the post draw. I could also throw in Pendulum (#3) who has won two of her last three with the only loss coming when caught behind a dawdling pace. She should get the right setup this afternoon and Brendan Walsh is a dangerous trainer with these types

Colonial Downs Race 10: Fulmineo (#11) at 8-1 or higher

As PTF, our fearless leader at In the Money Media, would say “It’s time for the race that gives the day it’s name” as twelve 3YO’s line up to attack this G3. I view Deterministic (#3) as squarely the horse to beat in this spot as he’s really found his nice as a turf router. He’s run admirably in both the Manila and Saartoga Derby and today just might be his day as Manny Franco hops aboard another Clement trainee. The short-price horse I’m most against is Grand Mo the First (#2). Horses coming who ran in the Kentucky Derby and are trying the VA Derby have had a checkered past. Only Paddy O’Prado was able to win this event after competiting in the Run for the Roses while many others like Optimizer, Hold Me Black, and Circular Quay ran up the track. The common theme with these runners is that they get bet and punters may be drawn to this colt off his win at Gulfstream on grass last time, but that was a very weak field. I respect Izzy d’Oro (#4) more in the race now with the scratch of Herchee (#1). This colt is lone speed and connections thought highly enough to try a G1 with him. There’s a long run to the clubhouse turn in 9f races at Colonial, so it doesn’t bother me as much that I’ve landed on the outside two runners. Zverev (#12) was never really given a chance in the G2-Hall of Fame last time after getting eliminated at the start. If he can get back to his run two-back at Churchill where he defeated next-out winners West Hollywood (G3+N1X @ SAR) and Degree of Risk (N1X @ KD) then he’s a major player in this spot whereas some bettors may be losing faith. The only negative is that he’s unproven without Lasix, but the price should be fair. I’m giving Fulmineo (#11) one last shot as I’ve been a fan of his and always thought he had a race like this with his name on it. I think if connections could have a do-over, they would’ve opted for the Secretariat rather than the Saratoga Derby where he just didn’t get the right trip up close to a pace that capitulated. He’s now back training in the mid-Atlantic and has a win over the course both the last two meets. I’ve been high on this horse ever since his no chance in the Breeders’ Cup last fall and hopefully it pays dividends on Saturday.

#TheCheatSheet (Now With Fair Odds!)

Meet Statistics

All
Top Picks: 234-67-47-30 (29%, $1.88); Featured Horses: 69-16-10-10 (23%, $2.23)
Fair Odds Met
Top Picks: 125-30-23-14 (24%, $2.24); Featured Horses: 47-11-6-7 (23%, $2.67)
Grid
Percent of Races Won By: A’s: 50%; B’s: 29%; C’s: 17%; X’s: 4%