The richest day of the Kentucky Downs meet is upon us as there are six consecutive seven figure stakes from races 6-11 on the card. In addition to my thoughts on some of those races, check out the pod PTF recorded with Jack Jenkins. If you haven’t had enough of me by now, be sure to check out the analysis I’ve got up on Colonial Downs, in both the written and podcast form as they close their meet out with a bang. Also, good luck to all those hunting BCBC/NHC seats this weekend via the multiple live money contests on offer for this card.
Follow me on Twitter: @mdomhokie
Selections
- Race 1: 1-6-4-2
- Race 2: 10-4-12-9
- Race 3: 10-1-8-5
- Race 4: 9-7-11-1
- Race 5: 1-2-8-11
- Race 6: 2-4-3-7
- Race 7: 4-9-10-8
- Race 8: 11-10-3-7
- Race 9: 1-11-6-2
- Race 10: 4-11-2-10
- Race 11: 12-4-7-8
- Race 12: 12-9-5-6
Kentucky Downs Race 2: Mama Bella (#10) at 7-2 or higher
The wagering appears as if it will center on three horses in this spot. Of those, I prefer Novara (#4) who is hoping the sixth time is the charm to break her maiden. Like most Godolphin runners, this filly is impeccably bred by Speightstown out of G2W/G1P Sentiero Italia who produced MG1W Santin. I believe Novara has been improving with each and every start and might’ve been best last time if not making an early move into the hottest part of the race. I think this is a subtle, but significant jockey upgrade as Machado takes over and I view her as the most likely winner. I’m willing to relegate the other two that figure to take money to backup status as Luz Divina (#9) comes from connections I wouldn’t want a short price on at this meet and Scarborough Fair (#12) will have to overcome that outside post and figures to be an underlay ridden by Irad and trained by Chad Brown. I like Mama Bella (#10) quite a bit in this spot. This Violence filly was caught behind dawdling paces in each of her first two turf starts while also finding trouble in both. While there’s no blue color-coded fractions in her most recent start, the flow of the race still favored those close to the pace yet she was the only one making up ground in the lane. Now that’s she’s leaving Gulfstream the track profile will be more in her favor. She was running figures as an early season 3YO that already put her in the mix and I wouldn’t be surprised if she can jump up 10pts with 6mo to develop. Jose D’Angelo isn’t the household name of some of the other conditioners in this race, but recently he’s proven that his barn is more than just a South Florida operation and the relative obscurity ensures we get our fair price.
Kentucky Downs Race 3: Ocean Atlantique (#10) at 3-1 or higher
The two keys for me when looking for horses to key in this spot are if they will handle the distance and if they project to take to this quirky Kentucky Downs course. Dynadrive (#9) is listed as the morning line favorite, but I have to oppose here as his two races at Kentucky Downs were both dreadful efforts compared to his surrounding form. Looks like connections will wheel back Ocean Atlantique (#10) on short rest and I’m keen to include him.This 7YO gelding had a nightmare trip in that race last Sunday breaking miserably then left without a clear path to finish in the lane. His other effort at Kentucky Downs was a solid second at the meet last year and while he hasn’t gone quite this far in a while, he did win over 10f in Europe early in his career. A couple other longshots with a chance worth mentioning include Barberini (#1) who has a couple of lines from this season that make him a player and he’ll be a price with the lower profile connections and also Kitodan (#8) who always seems to hop back into form when reappearing at this meet.
Kentucky Downs Race 8: Goliad (#11) at 6-1 or higher
I don’t have a major knock on Ancient Rome (#10) who looks to go back-to-back in this race for Jamie Spencer and Charlie Hills. Unlike last year, he’s been prepped for this with a run in the states and did not disgrace himself with a solid third in the G1-Arlington Million. I just think this is a deeper and more contentious race that the edition he won last year and went shopping for an alternative. Funtastic Again (#7) scratched out of a restricted spot to run in this Grade 2 and he certainly is in the form to compete here coming off a solid second place finish behind the talented Johannes in the Shoemaker Mile. However, I have two horses to highlight that have already run at this meet and are wheeling right back while the iron is hot. Irish Aces (#3) got the job done in the Tapit Stakes two Thursdays ago and retains Tyler Gaffalione despite having other options. My top pick is Goliad (#11) who we got the money with last Sunday and look to do again here. While you could argue there’s other speeds in this race, I don’t view Strong Quality (#6) as the same type of free-running leader as Goliad meaning he should still be able to clear and set an uncontested pace. We’ve seen time and time again that these animals can produce top performances on short rest and if left alone on the front end Goliad’s connections can be taking home a bundle of cash back to California.
Kentucky Downs Race 11: Mo Stash (#12) at 9-1 or higher
It’s clear that Cogburn (#4) is the most talented turf sprinter that we have in the United States this year, but it seems foolish to stomach a potentially odds-on chance in this full-field at Kentucky Downs. This is clearly not the end goal as the Asmussen barn has it’s sights set on the year-end target of the Del Mar Breeders’ Cup plus there’s just one blemish on his record since switching to grass and it came in this race when finishing fifth. Is he talented enough to overcome that and still bury this field? Of course, but I feel like it’s worth taking a small shot against that proposition. I landed on Mo Stash (#12) thinking if I’m taking a shot against Cogburn, I at least want to get paid. For much of this horse’s career he’s been bouncing back and forth between sprints and routes on turf. Well there’s no more perfect amalgamation of those two types of races than a 6.5f race at Kentucky Downs. I hearken back to listening to Paul Matties saying that he’d wish connections would have run this horse in the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Turf Sprint rather than the mile event and have always kept that in the back of my mind. He’s proven the affinity for those shorter races this year with four solid efforts going 5.5f and I just feel like this elongated sprint distance will be perfect.
#TheCheatSheet
Meet Statistics
All
Top Picks: 43-8-8-4 (19%, $2.22); Featured Horses: 12-3-2-3 (25%, $4.97)
Fair Odds Met
Top Picks: 24-2-3-3 (8%, $2.38); Featured Horses: 7-1-1-2 (14%, $6.68)
Grid
Percent of Races Won By: A’s: 49%; B’s: 12%; C’s: 35%; X’s: 5%
