The biggest day of the year for Virginia racing is upon us and while it’s a travesty that Arlington Park was shuttered a few years back and it’s always bittersweet thinking about this day of racing. I couldn’t think of a better home for these historic events than the lush and expansive turf course of Colonial Downs. For more coverage of these races, you can also check out the In The Money Players’ Podcast hit I did with PTF and Will Humphrey talking about our best bets for the whole card.
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Selections
- Race 1: 3-1-4-2
- Race 2: 8-2-9-7
- Race 3: 3-5-1-2
- Race 4: 1-3-5-2
- Race 5: 3-8-9-5
- Race 6: 3-2-7-11
- Race 7: 5-2-8-9
- Race 8: 5-11-13-1
- Race 9: 1-4-3-8
- Race 10: 5-3-2-6
- Race 11: 8-6-5-7
- Race 12: 5-3-10-2
Colonial Downs Race 2: Sharons Beach (#8) at 3-1 or higher
We’ve got juveniles on the dirt in this maiden special weight and there’s plenty of interesting first-time starters that the public could latch on to. The two shortest on the morning line are Nothing Personal (#4) and Kid Charlemagne (#9), but I don’t want to take them at their perspective odds. Nothing Personal is by a sire of precocious runners in Violence (19% 2YO FTS), but the damside pedigree is more turf and Greg Compton is just 2/16 (13%, $1.48 ROI) with juveniles debuting on the dirt. Kid Charlemagne goes out for Jonathan Thomas who has similarly mediocre numbers with this move and was just a $5k purchase last year. If I was to take a flyer on a first-time starter it would be Very Connected (#2) and while Kenny McPeek’s not entirely proficient with debuting 2YO’s, this one is bred to be good as a full-brother to GSW Hidden Connection. However, with this being mid-season 2YO’s going a demanding 7f distance, I wanted a horse with experience and landed on Sharons Beach (#8). I thought it was notable that this gelding went off favored in his debut going long on turf despite the Thomas FTS numbers and the fact that the pedigree tilts towards dirt on the damside. It could’ve been due to the nice workouts he’s been putting on the main track. Even though, he did no running over the turf in his debut, I’m hoping it’ll provide more foundation than those beginning their careers in this spot.
Colonial Downs Race 6: Reputation (#3) at 5-2 or higher
We now turn towards the stakes portion of the card with a competitive running of the Tyson Gilpin for these 3YO fillies. A couple of these are cross-entered at Ellis Park on Sunday including ML fav Impulse Buy (#2), but regardless there looks to be a fast pace on tap for this affair. I think Reputation (#3) is also in razor sharp form right now and she’s tactical enough to be placed off-the-pace early, but not out the back. If it wasn’t for the poor break two-back, she would be undefeated this year and I can see her being a fair price in this seemingly wide-open affair.
Colonial Downs Race 9: Giocoso (#1) at 4-1 or higher
While certainly not a banner edition of the G2-Secretariat Stakes, it does provide a relatively well-matched group of horses. I’d imagine the favorite will be Dream On (#8) as he enters this race off back-to-back wins. While one could argue he’s the horse to beat, I think he’s a bit dressed up off those victories given the field was bunched at the wire in the Woodhaven and the Penn Mile was run over a bog of a turf course. The “now” horse is Simulate (#4) who enters this event off an eye-catching win in an N1X allowance at Saratoga. Those events often attract stakes-quality fields and this son of Kitten’s Joy demolished them en route to a 2+ length victory. I respect him as a major contender in this spot, but I foresee him getting bet down off the 8-1 morning line and he’s coming off a perfect trip. I landed on Giocoso (#1) as my top pick in this spot given he is not coming off the most ideal journey. That effort also came against much tougher than what he’s facing on Saturday given the winner and second place finishers in the G1-American Turf have since proven to be atop this division. The trip just didn’t work out for him that day as he was forced to race wide throughout the race, but still ran on well through the lane. While I worry a bit about the sharpness of this flat mile, he should get an ideal trip breaking from the rail in this race.
Colonial Downs Race 11: Integration (#8) at 4-5 or higher
Finally it’s time for “the race that gives the day its name” as eight are scheduled to go postward to contest the G1-Arlington Million. The major story-line heading into this year’s running is the turf debut of 2024 Kentucky Derby winner Mystik Dan (#1). I’m as excited as anyone to see a Derby winner running at Colonial Downs for the first time with that excitement bolstered by the fact he might lead to value on other runners. While Mystik Dan has a semblance of turf pedigree and put forth a workmanlike move over the Saratoga training turf course in the morning, this feels like a classic Kenny McPeek sporting move. Given the popularity of these connections and the fact that he’s the most recognizable name in the field, I project him to be a major underlay on Saturday trying something for the first time. While not a particularly deep running of the Arlington Million, I do think Mystik Dan is up against a true G1 turf horse that should finally get his day in the sun. Integration (#8) has really been a victim of circumstance for why he hasn’t notched a win at the top level to this point in his career whether it was due to some questionable rides by Frankie Dettori (Turf Classic, Pegasus) or the distance of the race getting changed after entries were drawn (Manhattan). Even though his last start was contested over 9f, he was nearly able to run down Deterministic who has since went on to win the Fourstardave. I like that Johnny V is named again and he should sit a perfect trip in behind the speeds. Integration is 3/4 over this turf course in his career including winning his debut on the Arlington Million undercard two years ago. In addition to putting most of my money through him in my multi-race wagers, I’d also try to extract value in this race by playing him in exactas with the “other Shug” Fort Washington (#6) and European-import Cairo (#5) while leaving out Mystik Dan.
#TheCheatSheet
2025 Summer Meet Statistics (thru 8/2)
All
Top Picks: 83-22-18-10 (27%, $1.62); Featured Horses: 27-4-5-6 (15%, $1.39)
Fair Odds Met
Top Picks: 46-7-12-6 (15%, $1.26); Featured Horses: 19-2-4-4 (11%, $1.31)
Grid
Percent of Races Won By: A’s: 42%; B’s: 37%; C’s: 18%; X’s: 2%
