I’m posting a little later than usual this afternoon as some travel delays thwarted my best laid plans. However, this sequence is also starting a little later in the afternoon than usual today. The sequence includes three stakes races, starting with the Blue Sparkler Stakes at Monmouth and ending with a pair of graded stakes at Saratoga. This sequence is scheduled to start at 4:42 (ET) today.
Leg A: Monmouth Park, Race 9, The Blue Sparkler Stakes:
Three year old fillies will sprint 5 ½ furlongs in the co-featured stakes race on this program. If this race stays on the turf, I’ll take a shot with Shuangxi (#8) in this spot. She had a tough trip at the top of the stretch in the Stormy Blues Stakes last month. She ran very well on this course two starts back when clearing the N1X condition. I think she can track the speed in this spot and make her move on the turf. Tiffany Gold (#4) might be the speed of the speed here. She’s a perfect 2-2 to start her career. She handled the Tapeta on debut and then took care of business when moving for the turf for the first time in May. This is a logical next step for her, but there is a bunch of other early speed to contend with. Discreet Ops (#7) is worth using in her second try on the turf, because if this race falls apart, she’d be the one to pick up the pieces.
Leg B: Saratoga, Race 9:
While it’s a little boring, I’m going to be singled to the favorite in this N2X allowance race. I was on Irish Aces (#8) in the Grade 3 Arlington last month at Churchill. He stalked a slow pace from the outside in a small field and he barreled hard, only to be defeated by Charles Appleby’s Ottoman Fleet and Mike Maker’s Chasing the Crown. That duo went on to finish 1-2 in the Grade 2 Wise Dan at the end of the Churchill meet. Walsh decided to give this improving four year old gelding a little extra time and he brings him back in an easier spot, possibly with the idea of looking ahead to a graded stakes on turf later this summer. He has enough tactical speed to sit any kind of trip and I think he’s faster than his rivals in this race.
Leg C: Monmouth Park, Race 10:
The Saturday nightcap in New Jersey is a beaten $30K-$25K claiming contest going six furlongs. While I don’t love the 1-18 record, I do think that Threethirtythree (#7) has a solid chance to win this race. His form was tailing off a bit, so Jose Hernandez tried him on the turf for the first time. While he didn’t embarrass himself, it wasn’t necessarily a successful endeavor either. He had a nice string of races on the dirt in the winter and spring where he was just unlucky not to win. I think he can regain that form while moving back to a sprint on the dirt. Palm Island (#6) is the morning line favorite after a big effort to be second to a runaway winner last month. That was his first start in 10 months. He was working well prior to that effort and he fired a bullet work at four furlongs last week in preparation for this start. While I’m not 100% sold he can replicate that last effort in back to back tries, I do think he fits well with this group.
Leg D: Saratoga, Race 10, The Grade 1 Diana Stakes:
Chad Brown always has this race circled on his calendar, so it’s no surprise that five of the ten runners in this Grade 1 event are from his barn. Brown has won this race 7 times in the last 8 years and 8 times overall. However, this race has eluded Graham Motion over the years in some heartbreaking fashion. I think this could be the year he breaks through with Mission of Joy (#3) and John Velasquez. She ran out of real estate in the Just a Game last month when going one mile. I think the nine furlong distance suits her very well as she showed when winning the Regret Stakes and finishing a close third in the QEII last year. She’s making her third start off the layoff and should be primed for her best effort today. Didia (#4) is also not trained by Brown. She was the winner of the New York Stakes, going 1 3/16 miles during the Belmont Festival here last month. She’s had an excellent start to her six year old campaign and Correas has her in top form right now. Chili Flag (#10) might be the best of the Browns in this race. She has a devastating late kick that has helped her win three straight. She had no real pace to close into in the Just a Game and she still finished the fastest. The added furlong is a bit of a question mark at this level, but I do expect an honest tempo. I also want Gina Romantica (#5) on my tickets. She hit her best stride last year in her third race off the layoff. She can be a bit quirky, but she might be the best runner in the race when she’s on her game.
Leg E: Saratoga, Race 11, The Grade 3 Sanford Stakes:
Note that there is a huge scratch in this race as Mentee (#1), who set the track record for five furlongs at Aqueduct and earned an 88 Beyer Speed Figure when doing so, will not go today. Honestly, I was going to try to beat him in that spot using both Three Echoes (#5) and Studlydoright (#6). Studlydoright was very impressive when gobbling up ground to win the Tremont on this oval last month. He loses the main speed in this race, but I think there’s enough other speed signed on to set up his late move. The value won’t be what it was, but he’s the one to beat. Three Echoes paired his first two Beyers when fading late in the Tremont. I think Prat got to know him better last out. I expect him to lay a little farther off the pace, but to start his run to the front before Studlydoright. These are two principal runners here for me. However, don’t sleep on the Parx invader, Baby Dukes (#3) for Robert “Butch” Reid. He debuted at Parx and was an easy winner when going 4 ½ furlongs without ever really being asked for his best. I expect him to take a step forward in this race for a barn that has come up here to win some two year old races in the past.
