Analysis & Selections By: Dean Keppler @Keppskorner
BEST BET: 7-Eddie’s New Dream (Race #6)
Race #1: The 83rd running of the Del Mar seaside retreat meet kicks off with a 10-race card and full fields thanks in part to the successful “ship and win” program. First post is 2 p.m. 7-Americaredwhiteblu is a twice beaten favorite in last pair but has run two of the best main track Beyers in this field back-to-back (81,80) and makes the all-important 3rd start off the bench this afternoon. The colt adds blinkers and has a versatile running style. 2-Carnivore heads west off recent Churchill claim and runner-up finish for trainer Robert Diordoro who has above average numbers with new barn acquisitions. Golden Gate shipper and recent Maiden winner 1-Rimprotector makes initial start on dirt but has a cozy post and the right closing running style for shrewd barn. He defeated two next-out winners in Maiden breaking turf win in most recent start May 22.
Selections: 7-2-1
Race #2: The lightly raced 4-Fast Buck has won 2 of his last 3 starts and appears to be the speed of the speed cutting back from 6 to 5 furlongs. Maldonando lands here. 2-Gregory’s Pride goes route to sprint off the freshening for D’Amato and returns today as a first-time gelding. This consistent 4-year-old broke his Maiden at this trip last summer. 8-Time to Party just missed and finished in front of top pick in most recent start June 19 earning a field’s best (89) Beyer speed figure in a much-improved 2022 debut for trainer Peter Miller. A potential move forward off that strong start combined with going 2nd time Lasix today makes him the one to beat.
Selections: 4-2-8
Race #3: 5-Big Scott Daddy looks for back-to-back wins for new conditioner George Papaprodromou who is a strong 7 for 19 (37%-$2.72 ROI) with new barn purchases the past 2 years. The 6-year-old gelding has some back class; comes off the mini-freshening and defeated two next-out winners in his most recent start including 7-Pyeong Chang. Chang is also coming off a win and claim and looks to be much improved for new trainer Doug O’Neill. He faces some pace pressure with speed drawn outside him, however. Class dropping 3-Big Flame goes turf to dirt and removes the blinkers today for trainer Steve Miyadi. The 4-year-old gelding gets in light today and has run well over this main track in the past.
Selections: 5-7-3
Race #4: The veteran 8-year-old gelding 1-Secret Touch was legged up for this over at Los Al and now drops back down to $16k claiming level that resulted in a powerful runaway victory here last fall while earning an (84) Beyer. He’s 5 for 9 over this strip and 7 for 18 going a mile. He’ll be on or close to the lead with an alert break. 7-Colonel Bowman heads west for trainer Robertino Diodoro while exiting a key race at Churchill where he faced considerably better claiming stock. The 4-year-old gelding was a strong winner three-back at Oaklawn with a (85) Beyer. 3-Gray Magician goes first off the claim for trainer Mark Glatt who is 8 for 22 (36%) with a $3.21 ROI the past 3 years at Del Mar with new acquisitions.
Selections: 1-7-3
Race #5: 10-The Reign Song holds the experience edge over several of these fillies and is on the improve for new conditioner Steve Knapp who has done very well with new barn arrivals. The daughter of Stay Thirsty owns the field’s best last Beyer (60) with a runner-up finish over at Los Al and followed up that strong effort up with a “best of 32” 5-furlong bullet drill July 16 at San Luis Rey. 4-Danzing Cat debuts for trainer Peter Miller and is by win-early sire and multiple grade 2 winner Danzing Candy who is 5 for 22 (22%) thus far with his 2-year-old juvenile starters. 5-Chedda Cash comes in with some snappy a.m. drills for trainer Luis Mendez and this filly is by Straight Fire who is 4 for 18 (22%) with his 2-year-old debut runners.
Selections: 10-4-5
Race #6: If a contested pace and live flow materializes it should set things up nicely for 7-Eddie’s New Dream for trainer Ben Cecil. This filly is 1 for 1 over the Del Mar sod and gets some serious class relief dropping out of the Grade 1 Gamely and Grade 3 Wilshire. She projects to get a favorable stalking trip. Brazilian import 2-Macadamia (Brz) had some minor traffic issues in first start over American soil on June 17. The 4-year-old filly is likely to improve for trainer Phil D’Amato making 2nd start on Lasix and second start off the bench. She gets an extra 1/8th of a mile to work with today. 10-Tournesol has been plagued by layoff lines but has been freshened for this and should be motoring home late.
Selections: 7-2-10
Race #7: 9-Too Bossy showed improved speed when moved to the main track in most recent start but was run down late after opening a commanding lead. This filly by multiple Grade 1 winner Street Boss should be tough to reel in making career start number three. 2-Infinite Empire is one of two Richard Mandella-trained fillies lined up on here. This gal is a 360k Keeneland purchase by Empire Maker who returns with Lasix off a 11-month freshening after rallying for 2nd in debut here last summer. She’s trained well for her return and this lucrative jockey/trainer combo are 4 for 10 (40%) with $4.38 ROI the past two years with Maiden Special Weight runners. 11-Belle Cherie makes her third start off the layoff and goes turf to dirt for trainer Simon Callaghan. This barn is 4 for 10 (40%) with a $4.38 ROI with the surface change.
Selections: 9-2-11
Race #8: A full field of 14 line up for a very competitive Oceanside Stakes. Trainer Wesley Ward ships the improving 6-Castle Leoch east for his first crack at stakes competition off an impressive N1X turf route score at Belmont when defeating next-out winner Credit Event who came back to win at Saratoga with a (81) Beyer. This talented colt broke alertly; was wrestled back when rank in the early stages and then closed stoutly on the outside for the win. It was a visually impressive performance, and he looms an upset chance. Multiple stakes winner 1-Mackinnon is 2 for 3 over the Del Mar turf course and established his class when beaten less than 2 lengths in the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile last fall. The 3-year-old colt by American Pharoah loves this mile trip; has trained well for return and draws the advantageous rail where he should be able to save a ton of ground before unleashing his late kick. Beaten favorite 8-Balnikhov (Ire) is eligible to bounce back this afternoon for D’Amato after a disappointing try in last. The 3-year-old gelding removes the blinkers today and put in two strong runner-up efforts two and three-back at Churchill and Santa Anita when making his initial U.S starts.
Selections: 6-1-8
Race #9: Trainer Bob Baffert has two talented colts represented in here. Recent Maiden winner 6-Recall and Reload moves up off sharp score over next-out winner Show Time and should have little trouble negotiating an additional half furlong. He lands in a tough 1x spot but should be up for the challenge as the likely pacesetter. The other Baffert is the lightly raced and well-regarded 12-Murray who has trained sharply for today’s return off a 10-month layoff and was a runaway Maiden winner here last summer. Kentucky regular Florent Geroux has the mount. A Baffert exacta? 7-Indulge returns to dirt where he earned an (80) Beyer breaking his Maiden at Santa Anita in career start number two.
Selections: 6-12-7
Race #10: Friday’s nightcap is extremely wide open consisting of a full field of Maiden 3-year-olds-and-up routing on grass. There are several different directions the bettor could potentially go. 3-Pray for Me Ray returns to the turf and stretches out today in start number three for trainer Mike Puype after a troubled trip closing 3rd in most recent start on June 19. A better break would make the gelding dangerous in here. 9-Clutch Hitter adds blinkers today and comes out of the same race as top choice where he was finishing fast and galloped out in front past the wire. He’s another moving to grass on the stretch-out. 6-National Generaux (Ire) adds Lasix for U.S. unveiling for a barn that has above average numbers with newly acquired stock. This gelding was competitive against big fields on synthetic over in Ireland and seems well-spotted here. He’s by National Defense (GB) who was a Grade 1 winner routing on turf in France.
Selections: 3-9-6
