Analysis & Selections By: Dean Keppler @Keppskorner
BEST BET: 2-Ultra Power (Race 8)
Race #1: Selections: 6-3-7
6-Blissterinthesun ran one of her better grass sprint efforts over this course two-back for D’Amato when a troubled trip second and should be closing firmly through the lane over a course that’s been friendly to off-the-pace types this meet. She’s continued to train well. The speedy 3-Cyprus Moon has hit the board in four of five career tries for conditioner George Papaprodromou and exits a good second versus similar on Nov. 8. The daughter of Malibu Moon will likely try and take these gate-to-wire again. It’s only a matter of time before she finds a field she can handle. 7-Miss Mandalay (GB) tries sprinting off a 10-week mini-freshening and is eligible to improve here for Hess. A positive sign that jockey Umberto Rispoli takes over the riding assignment.
Race #2: Selections: 1-6-3
Baffert’s 1-Romanesque is by multiple G1 winner Practical Joke, who gets an average of 14% with his juvenile debuting prodigy. This colt must negotiate the rail draw but comes in here with all the barn’s usual flashy a.m. drills and lures Hernandez. His stablemate, 6-Rodriguez, is a $485K Keeneland purchase by Authentic. He gets a cozy outside draw and has also trained well. Sonata Stable’s 3-Stargell (a $375k daughter of Uncle Mo) has trained sharply for Team O’Neill and is eligible to make some noise at first-asking if the Baffert pair fall short.
Race #3: Selections: 6-3-1
6-Crazy Cavalier sports the field’s best last-out grass sprint Beyer (73) off his most recent runner-up finish at this level on Oct. 19. He defeated Andthemofthebrave who came back to beat Maiden Special Weights on Nov. 16 with a lofty (83) Beyer speed figure. A beaten favorite in the last pair, 3-Certitude (Fr) has finished second in half of her career starts and was a good second against this level on Oct. 25. 1-Ocala Kid returns off a long layoff as a first-time-gelding with Lasix for trainer Peter Miller and is eligible to improve in career start number two while dropping in for a tag.
Race #4: Selections: 5-3-4
5-Coalinga Road drops out of a string of small stakes into this softer spot this afternoon for conditioner Carla Gaines and is 6 for 6 ITM going one mile without registering a win. A recent runner-up at Fresno and a string of sharp a.m. drills since that last effort indicate the veteran 7-year-old gelding could be set to get back on winning track today. Fresu sticks here. 3-J B Strikes Back exits a 6 ¼-length romp on Nov. 3 for team O’Neill going today’s one-mile trip and appears to be a strong repeat candidate. The 3-year-old gelding by Goldencents returned to fire a “best of 23” bullet five furlongs in :58.4 on Nov. 17. 4-Speed Grazy has a win and four runner-up finishes in his last five starts for Glatt but these are considerably tougher colts and geldings than he’s been facing.
Race #5: Selections: 3-7-6
A contentious field of allowance runners line up for this turf sprint dash with several different directions one could potentially go. Blinkers on 3-Kid Azteca finished a game third on Oct. 20 when facing a handful of the same rivals for trainer Peter Miller and may appreciate shortening up to five furlongs. He gets the tepid vote. The lightly raced 7-Lonesome Stew returns to grass off a smashing main track victory on Oct. 11 when returning off an extended layoff. He’s bred to handle grass and appears to be a better animal at four than when he last tried the surface in January 2023. 6-Gregory’s Pride returns to Southern California off an 8-month layoff for D’Amato and has run well over this turf strip in the past. This lucrative jockey-trainer combo is 4 for 11 (36%) with a $4.02 ROI, with grass sprint starters returning off >180 days the past four years.
Race #6: Selections: 5-1-2
5-Mayacama finished a much-improved second in career start number two when dropped down to this level on Oct. 13 and appears to be the one to beat with another potential move forward for Mullins. 1-Uptown Preacher attracted decent tote support and finished a credible third in her Oct. 13 debut for trainer Carla Gaines and is eligible to move forward off that effort. 2-Pondicherry goes turf to dirt after flashing good early zip and getting snagged for $50k in her Oct. 25 debut try by Team O’Neill. The 3-year-old filly is by Bayern, who gets a solid 17% with dirt sprint runners.
Race #7: Selections: 4-3-7
Jockey Hector Berrios has transitioned so well to Southern California turf racing he’s almost a must-include when he shows up riding on grass. 4-Geezer hasn’t started in nine months for trainer Hector Palma but is proven off the layoff in the past and should get a legitimate live pace to close into. The 5 for 11 3-Devil Be Me moves back to grass off the Steve Knapp claim, exiting a sharp 3 ½-length score on Oct. 26. The 6-year-old Grazen gelding finished sixth in his only other prior turf attempt but has the breeding to suggest grass should be a non-issue. 7-Supernal is eligible to bounce back in this spot today for D’Amato after finishing a troubled trip eighth in his most recent try on Oct. 27.
Race #8: Selections: 2-1-6
2-Ultra Power finished a close-up third in his most recent try at Santa Anita on Oct. 26 for Baffert and looks like the horse to beat this afternoon with his return to Del Mar. The son of Curlin posted a (104) Beyer two-back over this strip with his seven-length romp when returning off a nine-month layoff and now makes the third start of the form cycle this afternoon. He projects to get a favorable pocket stalking trip. After several close finishes as the beaten chalk, Ultra Power’s stablemate 1-Mirahmadi broke through in a BIG way in career start number nine with a smashing 10-length Maiden win on Oct. 12. There have always been high hopes for the $1.05 million son of Into Mischief, and he exits a career-best Beyer. His speed and the rail draw make him dangerous in here. The Grade 1 Pacific Classic upset winner 6-Mixto was trounced in the BC Classic but returns to this softer spot for Team O’Neill and is eligible to bounce back this afternoon.
Race #9: Selections: 1-10-2
1-Over the Ocean ships west for career start number three for trainer Jonathan Thomas off a pair of third-place turf rout finishes at Keeneland and Horseshoe Indianapolis. This shrewd barn sent out repeat winning filly Rashmi on Nov. 8 and 17. This gelding projects to get a favorable ground-saving trip with today’s rail draw. 10-Dairago (Fr) makes the third start of the form cycle today for trainer Bob Hess after finishing a better-than-looks-on-paper fourth when rank in his most recent try on Oct. 26. The colt shortens back up to a mile this afternoon. 2-Mysterious Husband had a 21-point Beyer jump when finishing a much-improved second at 34-1 in the aforementioned Oct. 26 event for trainer Mark Glatt when facing a trio of the same rivals. A logical threat again if he can repeat that sharp figure.
