Analysis & Selections By: Dean Keppler @Keppskorner
BEST BET: 4-Mamba Cool (Race #2)
Today’s Mandatory Rainbow Pick 6 Payout Begins in Race Number Six
Race #1: 4-Disko Tribute moves back to dirt and cuts back to a sprint on the class drop for trainer Dan Blacker. The gelding was a sharp Maiden winner two-back sprinting on dirt at Los Al. 8-Wearenotbadpeople takes a significant class drop this afternoon and has run well on the main track here. 5-Divine Feminine should appreciate moving back to a sprint and dropping in class. The gelding broke his Maiden over this course sprinting last November.
Selections: 4-8-5
Race #2: Today’s projected swift early pace should set things up nicely for returnee 4-Mamba Cool. The 5-year-old gelding has been freshened for the D’Amato barn and this lucrative jockey/trainer combo are 6 for 13 (46%) with a $3.34 ROI with horses returning off 61-180 day’s rest at Del Mar. The lightly raced 2-Kings River Knight was a strong Maiden winner here when switched to turf in last defeating next-out winner Oubabe who came back to win with a (78) Beyer August 18. 3-Lil Nas has speed and moves inside but today’s trip might be pushing the boundaries as far as his distance limitations.
Selections: 4-2-3
Race #3: 3-Cholly removes the blinkers today and exits a strong Maiden event where she flashed good early zip before tiring to third. The Maiden winner Chismosa from that July 23 event is now a stakes winner and 2 for 2. 9-Just a Little Luck has run well in both career starts flashing good speed and moves outside today with Prat who is back in town for the G1 Pacific Classic. 1-Chedda Cash drops out of a minor stake to face straight MDSW types and makes the all-important 3rd career start for trainer Luis Mendez.
Selections: 3-9-1
Race #4: Los Al Derby winner 2-High Connection has two wins and two seconds from 4 career starts and should appreciate cutting back to a mile today. The colt has worked extremely well over the local footing including a nice 6-furlong stamina drill August 27 in 1:12 flat. The speedy 5-Armagnac goes turf to dirt for Baffert and gets some class relief today. A chalky Baffert exacta could be in play here. 3-Newgrange is a multiple G3 winner for D’Amato and has trained well off the 6-month freshening.
Selections: 2-5-3
Race #5: 3-Man Among Men ran very well in his July 22 debut when bumped and off a step slow at the start. The colt made a sharp 5-wide rally late to close for fourth and galloped out strongly. His valuable racing experience should serve him well today as Rispoli returns to ride back. Irish import 2-Kawazaki (Ire) ran well enough in first U.S start earning a field’s best last out (75) Beyer and can move forward off that try going 2nd time Lasix today for trainer George Papaprodromou. 9-Facetious makes second start off the bench today; moves back to grass and returns as a first-time gelding with the addition of blinkers. He should be forwardly placed with quick gate rider aboard.
Selections: 3-2-9
Race #6: This juvenile Maiden Special Weight dirt sprint is stocked with talent. 3-National Treasure is by multiple G1 winner Quality Road and debuts off barn’s typical snappy a.m. drills including a “best of 97” 5 furlongs in :59 flat August 28. This lucrative jockey/trainer combo are 9 for 13 (69%) with a $3.12 ROI with first time starters. This colt gives away valuable racing experience to a slew of others, however, including stablemate 5-Massimo who was a disappointing beaten favorite to other barn runner Jackstown. 10-Hawker is a $650K Keeenalnd purchase that ran to his lofty price tag with good 2nd in debut finishing in front of next-out winner Carmel Road. Prat and Sadler are 3 for 6 (50%) with second time starters. 8-Practical Move earned a strong (89) debut figure with runner-up finish at 24/1. A little skeptical he can run back to that number, however.
Selections: 3-5-10
Race #7: 5-Hong Kong Harry is 7 for 11 lifetime and cuts back to his preferred mile trip today making his 3rd start off the bench for D’Amato. The gelding’s stablemate 7-Cathkin Peak (Ire) owns the field’s best late TimeformUS pace figure (119) and would be the likely beneficiary of a hotly contested early pace. 6-Goliad has rounded back into top form for Mandella and moves up off sharp wire-to-wire win. The 5-year-old gelding loves this turf course and will take these as far as he can today on the engine.
Selections: 5-7-6
Race #8: 5-Redline comes off a good second where he earned a field’s best last out (92) Beyer and is proven going this tricky 7-furlong trip. The colt adds 8 lbs. today but gets key rider upgrade to Velazquez. 1-Mr. Impossible has been sidelined since July 2021, but this barn usually does well with these extended layoff types and this colt had a solid 3-year-old campaign. 2-Sunshine Journey is unproven going 7 furlongs and moves up in class but comes off a sharp wire-to-wire win and has returned to work well for trainer Steve Knapp.
Selections: 5-1-2
Race #9: 2-Slow Down Andy has speed; draws inside; and has some turf pedigree on the dam side. This 3-year-old colt sports a solid main track record (7-3-3-0) and could shake free here in first grass start. 9-Balnikhov (Ire) is the one to beat after drawing off in the robust Oceanside field for his first win on U.S. soil. 3-War At Sea has won 3 straight for trainer Ron Ellis and defeated both Cabo Spirit and Balnikhov (Ire).
Selections: 2-9-3
Race #10: In lieu of taking 1/5 or 1/9 on Flightline we’ll try 2-Country Grammer for Team Baffert making his 2nd start off the layoff today and second start since smashing G1 Dubai World Cup victory. He likes this 1 ¼ mile trip and looms a mild upset chance if heavy favorite doesn’t bring his “A” game. 5-Flightline has been compared to some of racing’s elite (justifiably) and brings his 4 for 4 undefeated record back to Del Mar where he earned a (114) Beyer in start number two. This super talented son of Tapit is the obvious choice to extend his win streak to five, but they still have to run the race and stranger things of happened in the seaside summer retreat classic. 4-Express Train likes Del Mar (5-3-1-0) and has been freshened for this for trainer John Sheriffs. This 7-time winner always runs well off the bench.
Selections: 2-5-4
Race #11: Trainer Phil D’Amato has four runners entered in the Grade 2 Del Mar Handicap nightcap and none of them include the first three betting choices. 4-Red King appears to have the strongest late kick on paper with his (124) TimeformUS late pace figure and the veteran 8-year-old should get ample pace to close into this afternoon. He’s a multiple winner over the track and distance and will offer good value. 9-Master Piece (Chi) was second in this race last year at 22/1 and comes off a strong upset win the G2 Eddie Read. 1-Dicey Mo Chara (GB) is still looking for his first graded stakes win but moves back to his preferred surface and draws the rail. The gelding has run well over this turf course in the past and can grab a share of this purse at a big number.
Selections: 4-9-1
