Analysis & Selections By: Dean Keppler @Keppskorner
BEST BET: 4-Baby Kristen (Race 5)
Race #1: 4-Greatheart ships in from Lone Star for a new barn and certainly fits well in the Thursday opener based on recent figures going today’s one-mile trip. 5-Zimba Warrior is a multiple winner over the track and distance and now goes first off the re-claim for conditioner Bob Hess while exiting a beaten favorite fourth on June 1. This usually lucrative veteran jockey-trainer combo is a surprising 0 for 21 with this claiming angle over the past five years. 1-Slew’s Joy is making his first start beyond 6 1/2 furlongs but has speed and the rail while sporting the field’s best last-out main track Beyer.
Selections: 4-5-1
Race #2: 1-Mr. Machupicchu has speed from the rail and drops in for a first-time tag for trainer Jeff Bonde after showing competitive efforts against straight MDSW types. 8-A Votre Sante was a much-improved runner-up at Los Al when he dropped to this level on June 30 and projects to be forwardly placed once again. 9-Kangaroo Coast is one of two firsters debuting for the Tim Yakteen barn. This 2-year-old colt is by grade 1 winner Bodexpress, who is off to a fast start as a freshman sire going (8-2-2-1) as of this writing.
Selections: 1-8-9
Race #3: The $144,919 Pick Six Carryover begins in race three. 3-She’s Got a Way exits a decent second-place effort against $40k claimers at Santa Anita back on May 17 and now shortens up to five furlongs this afternoon for trainer Peter Eurton. This 5-year-old mare won going this trip over this strip last August with Fresu. The hard-trying 8-Paleo’s Princess was a game second when last seen trying today’s $32,000 claiming level and should get a favorable stalking trip with today’s outside draw. 5-Recinto Rompere takes a substantial class drop today for conditioner Leonard Powell and performed well in both attempts at five furlongs.
Selections: 3-8-5
Race #4: Blinkers off 2-Visceral (by Violence) stretches out for start number two and should show more gate speed this afternoon for trainer Mark Glatt. This barn is a strong 7 for 26 (27%) with a $3.21 ROI with second-time dirt starters at Del Mar. 4-Canada Gate was no match for trainer John Sadler’s runaway winning colt Pony Express on June 15, but now makes his second start off the bench for Baffert and has worked four times since that last effort. His stablemate 6-Winterfell was beaten double digits with a wide trip in the aforementioned June 15 event but can rebound in this spot based on his sharp efforts two and three back.
Selections: 2-4-6
Race #5: The speedy 4-Baby Kristen moves back to turf off the claim and the dominating 3 ¾-length gate-to-wire win at Pleasanton on July 4. This outfit has solid stats with new barn acquisitions, and this 5-year-old mare might be hard to run down if able to shake free. The stakes-placed 5-Mirinda might work out a nice trip this afternoon behind likely front-runner Baby Kristen for trainer Gary Mandella while making her turf debut. She’s by multiple Group 1 winner Mitole, who gets a decent 15% with his turf sprint runners. The 3-year-old filly is also adding Lasix this afternoon. 9-Sassy Prancelot steps up in class off a sharp-looking 2 ¾-length Maiden turf score on June 2.
Selections: 4-5-9
Race #6: A beaten short-priced favorite in the last, 10-Ocasek slashes his claiming tag in half today for trainer George Papaprodromou and should be much tougher while making his second start off the 11-month freshening. The 4-year-old gelding will also make his second start in Southern California since shipping west. Blinkers on 2-Antibes will make his first dirt try in 10 starts and takes a suspicious drop off the $50k May 24 claim for trainer Kelly Bainum. Nonetheless, this 4-year-old gelding fits well against this suspect group and blew out a sharp three furlongs in :35.2 over the Del Mar main track on July 19. 7-Eddie’s Wave drops in class and adds Lasix while making his first start in eight months for trainer Jerry Hollendorfer. The 3-year-old gelding attracted some decent tote support in his Del Mar unveiling last November.
Selections: 10-6-7
Race #7: 3-Reincarnate owns a triple-digit Beyer advantage over the rest of this short field for Baffert and has simply been facing better in his last three graded stake starts. The 4-year-old colt broke his maiden in his lone start over this course and looks tough to beat at a short price. He’ll likely be a Pick Six single on many tickets. 2-Midnight Mammoth exits back-to-back sharp main track wins and looks like the controlling speed. He’ll be the main threat to top choice as a potential gate-to-wire threat if able to carve out some reasonable non-taxing fractions. 1-Calm Sea makes a rare dirt appearance after winning two straight on grass. His lone dirt try came all the way back in his November 2022 debut. The gelding draws a favorable inside post, however, and will likely fall into a stalking pocket trip behind Midnight Mammoth.
Selections: 3-2-1
Race #8: 3-Nation returns off an eight-month freshening for new trainer Michael McCarthy and, when last seen, finished a sharp fast-closing second in his Keeneland debut try despite a troubled trip. The gelded son of Constitution has trained well over at San Luis Rey for today’s comeback effort. 7-In Suspense flashed improved speed on the stretch-out June 1 before tiring to third. Hernandez takes over the riding assignment. 9-Sweet Odyssey stretches out for start number two for D’Amato. This son of Twirling Candy is bred to route, and he finished an OK fifth in his June 8 unveiling at Santa Anita despite racing greenly throughout. Improvement is likely this afternoon for a barn with solid second-time starter turf route numbers.
Selections: 3-7-9
