Analysis & Selections By: Dean Keppler @Keppskorner
BEST BET: 3-Dance to the Music (Race #5)
Race #1: There’s a good chance we’ll see a Peter Miller-trained exacta in Thursday’s opener. 5-Bochombo drops from an $100K optional claimer to $50k this afternoon and is reunited with winning rider from three-back where he earned a field’s best (86) turf Beyer going 6 furlongs. 2-Street Art shortens up to 5 furlongs today and has good tactical early zip. The gelding looks primed for top try making his 3rd start off the layoff and should get first run on the closers. The speedy 3-Cowboy Charlie adds blinkers back on; drops in class and shortens up in distance. He might be tough to reel in here.
Selections: 5-2-3
Race #2: 3-Cajun Treasure removes the blinkers; gets in light today and shows a series of works since voided claim on June 5 for trainer Peter Miller. The 7-year-old gelding was a sharp winner two-back and has never been offered this cheaply. 5-Outright has not been out in over 7 months since last seen at Golden Gate but makes first start for the Puype barn that’s done well recently with newly acquired stock. The gelding takes a substantial class drop off the layoff and has run well on the dirt in prior starts. 4-Paint Me Lucky is a three-time winner going a mile and comes here this afternoon in good form off back-to-back runner-up finishes at Pleasanton. He broke his Maiden over this track last summer.
Selections: 3-5-4
Race #3: 2-D D S Express has not been seen in 9 months after finishing a troubled trip 5th last October. This barn does well with these layoff types, however, and he returns in a weak field with blinkers. 6-Buttonwood Tree makes career start number three for new barn after disappointing effort as the public’s choice July 2. The gelding takes a substantial class drop today. 1-Cross Examine is a $475K Keeneland purchase by Quality Road who debuts as a 4-year-old for a $20k claiming tag. There’s obviously been some setbacks and Baffert is 0 for 5 the past 5 years with Maiden Claiming debut runners. Proceed cautiously.
Selections: 2-6-1
Race #4: 8-Maven ships west for breeder/trainer Wesley Ward and looks like he’ll be tough to reel in today on the class drop. He’s winless since last April but this barn excels with turf sprinters and hall of fame rider Mike Smith takes the riding assignment for these winning connections. 7-Redline has won 3 of his last 5 and now goes first off the claim for trainer John Sadler. This barn is 3 for 6 (50%) with a $3.60 ROI at Del Mar with this claiming maneuver on grass. 2-Lincoln City has been absent since turf sprint win back in February and returns as a first-time gelding. This 4-year-old scored here going a mile last July.
Selections: 8-7-2
Race #5: 3-Dance to the Music drops out of the Grade 3 Desert Stormer Stakes where she finished 2nd to repeat next-out Grade 2 winner Becca Taylor. This filly projects to be on the lead today; shows improving Beyer speed figures and has trained superbly since that last runner-up effort. She’s back on Lasix today and has had prior success over this strip breaking her Maiden in debut and following up that performance with a 2nd in the Grade 1 TVG Del Mar Debutante. The undefeated and lightly raced 1-Midnight Memories adds blinkers today and has done nothing wrong for Team Baffert with two strong wins earning top Beyer numbers. She’s returned to drill a sharp 5 furlongs in :59 flat from the gate indicating she remains in top form. 5-Grace Adler returns with Lasix and was last seen being eased and walking off the track in the Grade 1 Starlet 7 months ago. She’s worked extremely well for return as she looks to regain her top form and class she exhibited last year at Del Mar when winning the Grade 1 Debutante defeating our top pick.
Selections: 3-1-5
Race #6: The ultra-consistent 5-year-old mare 10-With This Vow looks for back-to-back wins for trainer Ron Ellis and has plenty of early zip to clear from today’s outside post. Her Beyer turf numbers have improved with each subsequent start since early spring. 6-Scarabea owns the field’s best last out turf Beyer (89) with runner-up finish against better in the Possibly Perfect Stakes and is the one to beat in here getting some class relief. 1-Almost a Factor was legged up for this with 3rd place closing effort June 19 and now stretches back out to his preferred route of ground making 2nd start off the bench for trainer Carla Gaines. This mare draws the rail; should be able to save a ton of ground and gets hot turf rider Bravo who is off to a fast start this meet.
Selections: 10-6-1
Race #7: 3-Opening Buzz was a runaway winner in northern California debut for trainer Jonathan Wong earning a solid (92) Beyer over the synthetic surface. She stretches out to 7 furlongs today but is expected to be on the lead. She’ll likely be a fair price in here. Trainer Phil D’Amato has two fillies represented in here and they’re both expected to attract support. The first is 4-Connie Swingle who switches back to the main track off back-to-back sharp turf victories. This 3-year-old filly has been just as effective on dirt and has never been worse than second in 6 career starts (6-4-2-0). She’s a logical threat to win again stretching out to 7 furlongs today. 5-Fun to Dream is back under Baffert’s care after an impressive looking debut victory over next-out winner Lady Maryann on May 28. The 3-year-old filly has worked extremely well since that encouraging unveiling and Hernandez sticks. The other D’Amato filly 1-Rose Dawson has two wins and a second from 3 career starts and goes turf to dirt making her 2nd start off the layoff. She’ll be the better price of the pair.
Selections: 3-4-5
Race #8: 9-Queen’s Code goes two sprints to a route for trainer Carla Gaines coming off two sharp grass tries where he earned two of the field’s best turf Beyers. The 5-year-old gelding makes his 3rd start off the layoff today and should be set for top effort. It’s always difficult to endorse a Maiden with 5 runner-up finishes from 7 starts and 10-Oubabe brings a 4-race streak of seconditis to Thursday’s nightcap. A beaten favorite in six consecutive races the colt’s hard to recommend on the win end at low odds despite top connections. 4-Fore Flag is 0 for 10 but stretches back out this afternoon off a troubled trip and has been competitive routing on turf at this level while unable to get over the hump and find the winner’s circle. Perhaps the switch to top grass pilot Florent Geroux can make the difference this afternoon.
Selections: 9-10-4
