By Eric Solomon
It’s been a bit of a fall from grace for the horse that entered the starting gate as the 9-5 favorite in the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile in November. He came into that race a perfect 2-2 after winning the Grade 1 Breeders’ Futurity at Keeneland. However, a bad start and rough trip at Del Mar and an inexplicably bad effort at the Fair Grounds in the Risen Star back in February have made him a longshot that needed a second place finish in the Toyota Blue Grass in order to qualify for this year’s Derby.
Racing Record and Notable Performances
His first two races as a two year old were as good as you could ask for, He was a dominating winner in a fast maiden special weight race at Ellis in August. That effort was good enough to earn a start in the Grade 1 Claiborne Breeders’ Futurity at Keeneland. Tyler Gaffalione put him on the lead that day and never looked back as he coasted home an easy 5 ¼ winner as the second choice in the wagering. Drawing the rail seemed like a perfect fit in the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile, but a stumble from the gate forced him to race from the back of the field for the first time and he wasn’t having any of it. He was hard to handle and visibly uncomfortable that day, finishing 9th, well behind Citizen Bull. He had some time away and returned in the Grade 2 Risen Star Stakes at the Fair Grounds. He was asked to rate behind Magnitude, who was a 43-1 longshot in that race. Ben Curtis had that horse on the muscle in the early stages and was able to clear to the inside from his outside draw. East Avenue was again uncomfortable while not on the lead and he lost interest fast, fading to finish 10th. It’s fair to point out that Magnitude ran a monster race, seemingly out of nowhere that day, but the effort from this colt was not good. He was much better when making the early lead in the Toyota Blue Grass last time out. He set a quick tempo, but was much more relaxed when he was on the lead. He led until the final strides when Burnham Square nailed him on the wire.
Pedigree and Connections
- Sire: Medaglia d’Oro
- Dam & Damsire: Dance Music (by Ghostzapper)
- Owner: Godolphin LLC
- Trainer: Brendan Walsh
- Jockey: Manny Franco
Medaglia d’Oro has been a tremendous sire of thoroughbred racehorses for the better part of the last 20 years. His best horse to race was Rachel Alexandra, who was the winner of the 2009 Kentucky Oaks and 2009 Preakness, while putting together one of the best seasons in recent history. He also sired the favorite for this year’s Kentucky Oaks, Good Cheer. East Avenue is the first foal from the unraced mare, Dance Music. She was foaled by the mare Dance Card, who produced graded stakes winners Cody’s Wish and Endorsed.
Brendan Walsh continues to ascend as one of the top trainers in the game. Training many of the top horses in the U.S. for Godolphin certainly helps that rise. He’s coming off a strong Keeneland where he battled for the leading trainer title. This will be his second Derby starter as Plus Que Parfait finished 8th in his only Derby try. He trained Maxfield who was the early favorite for the Derby after his win in the Claiborne Breeders Futurity, but setbacks kept him from getting into the starting gate on the first Saturday in May. Walsh trained the winner of the 2023 Kentucky Oaks, Pretty Mischievous. Luan Machado rode East Avenue last time out, but he is committed to ride Final Gambit for Cox. Tyler Gaffalione was his jockey for the Grade 1 Breeders’ Futurity, but he remains sidelined with an injury. Walsh will turn to Manny Franco to ride in his 5th Kentucky Derby. He was tasked with piloting the heavy favorite, Tiz the Law in the COVID 2020 September Derby. He finished second to Authentic that day, which was his best Derby finish. This will be the first time that Franco rides East Avenue.
Final Prep Analysis
- Final Prep Race: G1 Toyota Blue Grass at Keeneland (April 8th)
- Finish Position: 2nd out of 7
- Final Time: 1:51.33
- Beyer Speed Figure: 96
After failing to set the pace in his previous two starts, Luan Machado’s instructions were clear; put this horse on the lead. He rode East Avenue hard from the gate and he was able to set a fast tempo on a course that was kind to front end speed. His clear lead began to dwindle as they made their way around the turn, but he re-broke at the top of the stretch, and dug in, only for Burnham Square to nail him at the finish line. It is worth noting that he ran with blinkers for the first time that race, and he certainly ran one of his better races.
Strengths and Concerns
Strengths: This Grade 1 winner has the pedigree of a horse that could win the Derby. Medaglia d’Oro has sired 176 stakes winners and while his dam was unraced, she’s a sibling to some very good horses. He has early speed which can definitely be a weapon in the Kentucky Derby. His recent race was a return to form after two dull efforts in big races. He’ll need to take another step forward to win this race, but that kind of improvement could be within his reach.
Concerns: It’s hard to get behind a horse that has only one way to win. He needs the lead and he’s going to have to compete with a pair of talented Baffert runners for that spot. In the two starts where he didn’t make the lead, he was awful, and it’s hard to imagine that the Derby is where he’d be able to experience a win for the first time when he wasn’t the pacemaker. The other issue is that both of Baffert’s runners are going to be hunting the lead, and both of his horses also seem to need to make the front end in order to win. This could cause a pace that is too hot for any of these runners to sustain. Post position and what happens in the long run down the stretch for the first time are going to play a role in what kind of success he will or won’t have.
Expert Opinions and Odds
East Avenue is currently sitting in the 20-1 to 25-1 range in the Vegas Futures markets. I’m interested to see how this one will be bet in this race. In terms of post position draws, I’d want to see him breaking inside of both Citizen Bull and Rodriguez. American Promise is another runner that could be sent for speed in the early stages too. The pace should be honest and he’s going to have to hold off some high quality opponents coming from off the pace. I want to see how he’s doing in his final work and in the days leading up to the big race.
Conclusion
With East Avenue, I have more questions than I do answers. Five of the last six winners of the Derby lost their final prep race leading up to the Derby. Many of those runners were flying under the radar on Derby Day and this one figures to be in that category. There are a lot of things that will need to go his way to win. He’s likely going to need to draw inside of the Baffert horses, but regardless of post position, he is going to have to be used hard in the first quarter mile. From there, how much of a breather is he going to get between the third and sixth furlongs of this race. When they turn for home, he’s likely going to have a talented horse like Journalism breathing down his neck. Will he have enough energy to hold him off? A track that is playing kind to front end speed could help his cause, but it’s another factor that needs to be working to his advantage. If he can secure the track, and if the closers have traffic woes late, I could see him winning. We have seen this scenario play out before in the Derby. My concern with investing too much in him is that I have no confidence in him if any one of these things don’t go his way. Going into this weekend, I see him as a backup at best. I think upwards of 25-1 would be what I need to get to think about using him to win.
Kentucky Derby Contender Profiles
Journalism – Sandman – Sovereignty – Burnham Square – Luxor Cafe – Tappan Street – Citizen Bull – Tiztastic – Coal Battle – Rodriguez – American Promise – Final Gambit – Grande – East Avenue – Publisher – Chunk of Gold – Owen Almighty – Flying Mohawk
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I agree…with your analysis. The pedigree is certainly one of the better ones in this race for getting 10 furlongs, and he has that high cruising speed. And Keeneland had that 50 foot runup to the clock starting to run for the first call, one of the shortest of all the final preps (for instance, the FL Derby is 150 feet). As a result, EA was flying into that first turn and set a rapid early pace. Equibase has it as the fastest of any of the Derby preps. Also, if he did not return to his wrong lead, he wins…as he was beat by a nose. Lastly, this is the third race of his cycle, so there is much room to move forward given his first race where he stopped just before 1 mile. The concerns are as you stated…but the light may have gone on, he will be a better price than Rod or CB, and Mike Welsch (DRF) says every day what a great appearance EA makes on the track and how he just gets over the CD surface very easily…so who knows? Certainly for a price…
As longshots go, he is definitely one of the more interesting runners. He feels like he is coming into the race in the right way. We’ll see how everything else comes together once the field is formally drawn.