Fair Grounds Racing Preview – 3/24/21 – By Eric Solomon

It’s the start of the last week of the 2020-21 Fair Grounds meet. We have five days of racing this week starting with a special Wednesday card. The weather forecast is not the greatest, so I’ll handicap all turf races for both surfaces. I won’t have time to update my selections this week, so the top part of the chart will be filled out for the turf and the bottom will be filled out for the main track.

Race 1:

$12,500 maiden claimers start the final week of racing for the current meet. Hawk Trail (3) is the one I want from this race. He has two solid efforts at this level, where the horse who has beaten him in his last two, Vehement, graduated the other day at this level. He was claimed by Steve Flint and gets an upgrade at jockey to Riquelme. Windchill Zar (7) looks to be the only other one in here with a reasonable shot. He’s had 10 chances to graduate, and has hit the board in half of them. Perhaps he struggled with the mud last out, when he lost action for a bit. However, I’ll only be using him on deeper tickets, as he’s burned money in the past.

Race 2:

The first turf contest of the day is a sprint for multi-conditioned $30,000-$25,000 older filly and mare claimers who have either never won twice or three year old fillies. On either surface, I think Double Dare You (4) is dangerous in here. She was overmatched in her first few starts with better, before dominating a $15K maiden claiming field last out. Her lone turf start wasn’t as bad as it looks, as she was forwardly placed on a good course, before fading late. She makes sense at this distance on grass or a track that isn’t too wet. I will downgrade her to a “C” on the main track if the track comes up muddy or sloppy. On turf, Winnager (1A) is a logical favorite with speed figures that are better than what many of these have been running. However, she’s coming in off a four month layoff and has been a beaten favorite in her last two. I’ll use her, but try for a better price. You’re Doing Fine (3) has three solid turf sprints on her resume, closing to get the win in a $25K maiden claimer last out. I think she is eligible to improve in her third race in this form cycle. On deeper tickets on turf, Zebecca (7) drops in for a tag in her third race off a longer layoff. She’s never been on grass before, and her pedigree doesn’t scream turf. However Duhon’s horses usually run well sprinting on the grass. I do like her better on the main track after showing an improved effort last out against better horses. Main track only entrant, Easy to Bless (9) is also a logical player as she’s the only horse in the race with more than one win. She beat three year old $15K N2L claimers last out and was claimed by Broberg, who spots her smartly in this race.

Race 3:

This race is a $5,000 N2X claiming race at 6 Furlongs for three year olds and up. No Exaggeration (2) is the only three year old that drops into this spot after a dull try with better older horses in the slop last out. He has never run in a one turn race, so this is definitely an experiment. I prefer others more, but he has a little bit of live look at or above his 6-1 morning line. Pure Valor (4) is the one to beat here, moving to open company after finishing 5^th with state bred $5K claimers last out. His last four efforts on dirt have been good enough to be right there with this group. He definitely moves up on an off track and he should improve a little starting for Faucheux for the first time (26% win percentage on an off track). Smart Call (5) takes a significant drop in his first race since being gelded. He was dull last out, but ran a few solid races in a row prior to that at the $30-$25K claiming level here. He was claimed by this owner in May for $30K and broke his maiden via DQ in November in a $15K maiden claimer. He’s definitely one to watch in the paddock and on the track to see if he seems like himself or not. I’ll cover with him, but it’s hard to feel good about a favorite who has never crossed the line first in 11 tries.

Race 4:

$15K N3L claimers are slated to go on the grass here. I really don’t have a strong opinion if this race stays on the grass. Botswana Taps (2) is a player on either surface. I don’t like his two turf races here this meet, although he definitely had an excuse in allowance company when he drew post 14. He has run well on this course in the past though, and his last two dirt tries have been sharp. Curlington (6) is probably the most consistent horse in the race. He went off at 8-5 at this level last out and got within two lengths of the winner. The extra half furlong should be beneficial for him if he gets to run on the grass. Holy Spirit (7) has come back in good form over his last three starts at this meet. He was sharp on the main track three back, and has run two credible efforts on the grass since. He had some trouble in his last start, but that was a deeper field for this level that what most of these have been facing. I think he’s a player on either surface. Canihaveitlikethat (10) is also live on either surface. He hasn’t been on the grass since October, but his turf form in Illinois wasn’t bad. His last two against better on the main track haven’t been great, but class relief will be helpful for him here. I think he, too, is a player on either surface. On horse to think about upgrading on the main track is Trivista (4). He’s been popular at the claim box in his last three and now moves up in class. He has some better races deeper in his form lines, and could take a step forward with a possibly depleted field.

Race 5:

State bred $10K maiden claimers go two turns in the 5^th. Half of this field is coming out of an eventful race on 3/13 where four horses were within less than a length of each other on the wire. Muletrain (1) and Putthehammerdown (4) both had significant trouble lines in that race, and still managed to be in that battle at the wire. Muletrain gets some post relief on the rail today and has paired his Beyers in his first two turn efforts. I think he can be right there again with a better trip. Putthehammerdown ran surprisingly well after being all but eliminated at the start. He closed a ton of ground when dropping to this level for the first time.  He’s had 14 chances, which isn’t ideal, but I think this is the level where he can graduate. Antietam Road (8) is likely going off as the favorite in this spot, but you’ll be taking a short price on a horse that has never gone two turns before. He does get a rider upgrade to Beschizza, which is encouraging. He may be better than these, but this is a big field, and the sprint to route angle isn’t great for Faucheux. On deeper tickets, perhaps give a look to second time starter, War Tribute (7) who debuted in a sprint last out for Shane Wilson and now goes to two turns. Apprentice Kody Kellenberger has been riding with more confidence of late, and this is a gelding that could improve after getting some racing experience last month.   

Race 6:

$50,000-$40,000 maiden claimers are slated to go on the turf here. If this race stays on the grass, it’ll run through the morning line favorite, Fed Money (6). He’s been very good in his two career turf tries, just missing at this level last out. He was a little less than three lengths better than Novgorod The Great (1) that day, who was fighting the rider early on, before settling down and running a credible third. There’s reason to think that he could improve in this start, while getting a rider upgrade to Pedroza. He ran well enough on the main track in his debut to be considered if this race is switched to dirt. On the main track, Directional (8) is worth upgrading after a decent effort last out, just missing at this level on the main track. He could take the turf, in his first start, but I’d prefer to see him stay on the dirt here after running his best career race to date last time. On deeper tickets, Leroy Jenkins (3) is a little interesting on the dirt. He needs to avoid shooting himself in the foot at the break, like he’s done in three of his first four tries. However, he goes two turns for the first time, which gives him a little more recovery time if he is away slow. He also drops from maiden special weight to run for a tag for the first time. If he goes here in an off the turf race, that would be significant class relief.

Race 7:

Moliere (5) from the Asmussen barn is strictly the one to beat in the optional claiming/allowance featured race this afternoon. He ran a monster race two starts back to break his maiden, and then followed that effort with a narrow defeat to 2019 Holy Bull winner, Harvey Wallbanger, in his first start against winners. He ran back with a similarly strong effort that day, either of which should be enough to win with this group. On deeper tickets, there are some solid horses with many wins in the claiming game that might be able to have an impact in this race. Luck of the Draw (7) has been steadily improving while facing Louisiana bred company. He’s won two straight and takes a big step up here. New Eagle (2) has been running quality races with strong fields on the grass. He moves back to the main track, where he has shown he is more than capable.

Race 8:

If this optional claiming/starter allowance stays on the turf, I think Breonna (8) is one that can run an improved effort here. She won her debut on the grass (2^nd career start), and then followed that up with a respectable fourth at this level last month. She worked out a good trip, but looked a little uncomfortable along the inside in the later stages. I think she can benefit from an outer draw as long she can avoid being too wide in the first turn. I’m expecting another step in the right direction from her. I don’t like her as much on the dirt, however, I’d still her give her a look based off her pedigree. Her dirt debut while sprinting wasn’t much, but she’s improved at two turns. On turf, Hohohoho (5) did a lot of the heavy lifting in that same race last month at this condition, before fading late to finish second. Her game is front end speed and she’ll be tough to run down again. Gastown (7) was claimed when she broke her maiden rallying strongly down the crown of the track to win by open margins. If they go too quick, I think she’d be the benefactor. On dirt, Klayton’s Kandy (3) looked good in an off the turf maiden race three starts back. She’s second off the layoff and stretching out from sprints. I’m thinking she’ll be better in this spot. Princess d’Oro (1) was a respectable second behind Spun d’Etat in her last dirt try three back against better. I’d look for a forward move from her on the main track as well.

Race 9:

Moonoverthebayou (1) returns here from Gulfstream to take advantage of the state bred program in this N1X Louisiana bred allowance. He just missed three starts ago here at this level and returns after decent tries against significantly better horses in South Florida. Mister Intuition (7) was flattered when Who Took the Money, who handily defeated him last time out, came back to win the Crescent City Derby here on Saturday. He’s been struggling to break through at this condition, however, that could be said about many of these in this race. Saintsgotrobbed (3) had two efforts that were solid at this level before running a dud with claimers last out. Broberg claimed him, and opts to protect him here, which is a good sign that he’s ready to run a more competitive race.