Fair Grounds Racing Preview – 3/25/21 – By Eric Solomon

The track yesterday was sloppy and the races were off the turf. I’ll handicap today’s 9 race card the same way as yesterday, with notes for both surfaces. Five of the nine races this afternoon are restricted to Louisiana Breds, including the featured allowance race for older fillies and mares in Race 7.

Race 1:

Four year olds and upward that have never won three times race with a $10,000-$8,000 tag in the Thursday opener. Four of the seven entered here are Louisiana breds, taking on open company, and I think all four of them are live here. Cajun Up (4) is my top pick who drops back to the claiming ranks after a dull outing with better. He was a winner of back to back races, both efforts by open lengths, prior to trying state bred N3X allowance company last out (despite being eligible for the state bred N1X condition). He drops back here for a tag that is twice what he was claimed for. I’m expecting a rebound this afternoon. Knockalittlelouder (1) has two solid efforts at the current meet, most recently beating LA. Bred, $12,500 N2L claimers on New Year’s Day. He’s been away for a few months, but he has handled this mini layoffs well in the past. He looks to have the best speed from his rail post. Sturges Ducoing sends out two here, Friendlyproduction (3) and Rose’s Galaxy (7). I like Friendlyproduction a little bit better, as I expect him to improve first off the claim and second off the layoff. He looked like he needed his last race which was his first start in nearly 6 months. His Louisiana Downs form was good enough to make him a competitor here. Rose’s Galaxy will be the shorter priced Ducoing entrant, and he’s definitely live. However, I’m a little bit concerned that he’s entered below his $15K claiming tag, especially when there are plenty of other options for a Louisiana bred at the moment.

Race 2:

This is a state bred optional $20K claiming/N2X allowance. On either surface, Freda’ Smooth Air (2), who has been strong in her three races at the meet, is going to be a tough customer, while moving up in class to this spot. She dominated her two races that were taken off the turf at the OC/N1X state bred level, two and three starts ago. She was claimed last out for $12,500 and moves up to a protected N2X spot after losing in a three horse photo on the turf.  B’s Ten (4) who came up just short to be 4^th in that same race, will be more fit for this race in what is her second race off the layoff. She has a good career record on this turf course and runs for top local connections (Amoss/Graham). She’s not as good on the main track, but still very capable. Alliaceous (8) is also second off the layoff and coming off a solid third place effort at this level last time out. She’s one that I prefer on turf and will likely be leaving off my tickets if this race goes on the main track. If they’re on the dirt and there’s moisture in the track, Distractor Factor (3) is a big upgrade, as she’s handily won her last two in the mud and slop with N1X company. She could have some speed to deal with on the outside, with Bellamy Cay (9) who is a main track only entrant coming off a dull effort sprinting at the level in her last try in January. However, I think she’s the one that needs to be your tickets if this race comes off the turf.

Race 3:

State bred $5K N3L claimers go in the third, where five of the nine exit a common race at this condition on March 4^th. None of them ran particularly well that day, however, the two horses trained by Karl Broberg from that race, seem to have the most upside in this spot. M V P Mookie (8) couldn’t have been much worse when he disappointed backers at 2-1 last out, when he was making his first start after being claimed by Broberg. I like that he reunites this horse with Chester Bonnet, who won the Sunday nightcap with a 34-1 longshot, and has had success riding this horse in the past. He seemed to be fighting Colby Hernandez the entire way around last out, so I think a familiar face may help get this one back on track. Hernandez, who rides regularly for Broberg, is on his other horse, Musical Man (7) who makes his first start off the claim after finishing a dull seventh with this level last out. He was the beaten favorite last time out, but it is interesting to note that he ran that poor effort when blinkers were added. Both of his wins and many of his better races have come when he’s not wearing them. Broberg takes them off for this start, which is a minor equipment change, but might be a fair explanation for a lousy effort last out.

Race 4:

A dozen Louisiana breds are scheduled to go 1 Mile on the turf. Eight of the twelve are three year olds taking on four older foes here. Everlovinghand (9) is one to use on both surfaces. He’s never been on the turf after four starts, all of which have shown steady improvement. He’s by Summer Front out of an Arch mare, so it’s not surprising to see Calhoun try to get him on the grass. If the race comes off the turf, he’s handled the off track well enough in the past, and was second on a fast track against a runaway winner last time. The winner that day caught a fast track while adding blinkers for the first time and dominated that race. Ballinonabudjet (6) has been second in three of his last four starts, one of them in the slop and the other three on turf. He had a rough trip and a visible excuse in the one turf race where he finished 8^th. He’s shown the ability to close well on both surfaces. A few longer priced horses that might be worth a look on both surfaces are Last to Know (5) and Captain Ziggy (8). Last to Know was claimed off Amoss for Faucheux last out when he closed well to be second with $12,500 state bred maiden claimers on the dirt. He’s by Broken Vow, who has been a sneaky good turf sire, so there’s reason to think he could improve while moving to the turf today. Despite facing maiden claimers, he has two second place finishes on the main track here. Captain Ziggy showed some tenacity when facing open maiden claimers on the grass at Sam Houston last out. His first turf start here was a disaster when he bolted and eased up. He showed he can run on the grass last out and now he finds a slightly softer field here. I could play him back on the dirt on deeper tickets as well, as he’s shown some improvement at Delta prior to his last turf race.

Race 5:

$5K multi-conditioned claimers for fillies and mares that have never won four times or have not won a race in six months. My single of See What’s What (2) here isn’t so much because I love her in this spot, as it’s more that I really don’t like anyone else. She was claimed at this level by Faucheux last out when facing a saltier field. She comes back in this spot where she looks to be better than the majority of runners here, many of which are not in the best form. She hasn’t won in a while, but she can be expected to improve off her last.

Race 6:

On turf, this optional claiming/starter allowance is super competitive. It loses some of it’s punch on the main track though. On the grass, Ultimate Irony (2) is the one I want. He was closing well before being bumped by Fieldstone (8) last out. He was placed second that day and has steadily improved in four races on the grass. He’s versatile enough to close from off the pace if there’s more pace on, but his rail draw allows him to stalk the pace from a closer spot if the early tempo is relaxed. Fieldstone is the main danger after running three strong races on the grass. He’s been very competitive at this level and should benefit from adding the extra half furlong. Hot Stove League (5) is a player getting back on the grass. He beat Hidden Enemy two back, who came back to win at even money on the Louisiana Derby Day card. He broke his maiden on the main track when that race was taken off the turf and sort of fell apart. He debuted for a $30K tag, so he’s eligible to be protected here, instead of making the jump to N1X company. Military Bearing (4) is definitely the X-factor in this race after running a monster race on the grass last out to break his maiden. If he runs back to that race, he could very easily beat this group. However, that race came out of nowhere. There’s some mixed signals, but I’d definitely want to cover him. On dirt, I believe Assumption (3) has a lot of upside in in this spot. He was away slow in his turf debut, while coming off a two month layoff. He was behind Cane Creek Road (10) who cruising early after running off. He also had a stumbling start two back when he was defeated handily by Proxy on the main track. He is better when he’s closer to the early pace. I think he could win on the dirt with a clean trip and he’s a play on deeper tickets on the grass looking for a big number. Man On The Moon (1) deserves a look on the main track after breaking his maiden with a solid performance against $30K maiden claimers. He beat Double Tough Tiger that day who came back to graduate last week.

Race 7:

Louisiana bred fillies and mares go 1 Mile and 70 yards in the N1X allowance feature today. Sincerity (7) has had many chances to move past this level and today looks to be her best shot to do so, as this is the softest group she’s seen in a while. She was narrowly defeated by a three year old filly last out, Eileen Alexandra, who went on to stakes company after that effort. She might be the only horse with a little bit of early foot in this race, which figures to have a slow pace. I think it’s her turn to move on today. Darling Joanna (3) is a bit of a question mark for me. Her last was inexplicably bad, after running a solid race two back to break her maiden on turf. Maybe she didn’t care for the slop, so if the track is on the dry side, she could be worth upgrading. I’ll cover with her on deeper tickets, but I’m not sure how high her ceiling is for this race.

Race 8:

I liked the effort from Differentbutok (10) in her debut at the same maiden special weight turf sprint conditions last out. She gets a rider to upgrade to the meet’s leading jockey, James Graham, and draws well for a front running type. I expect her to be stronger in the stretch today. I like her the best on the grass. I think Dynamite Gift (9) prefers the grass and has shown that she’s been able to run on well despite having trouble in the stretch in both of her turf efforts. I think turf sprints will be where she runs her best races, and she might be overlooked in the wagering after a dull dirt try last out. On either surface, Naughty Rendezvous (1A) can be a factor if she draws in off the AE list. She got tired late against a strong field at two turns in an off the turf maiden special weight race last time. She’s run well in two turf sprints, and keeps getting better. On the dirt, Skinny Dip (6) who makes her first start since June can be a factor. She’s been working well for her return, and Foley does well off the layoff. I don’t love her chances trying the grass for the first time, but on the dirt, she’ll be tough here.

Race 9:

The nightcap is a $5K N2L contest for Louisiana breds, which drew an overflow field of 13. There’s a little bit of everything in this race as half the field are three year olds taking on their elders, and two of the runners are females taking on the boys. This is only a five furlong dash, but there’s a potential for this race to fall apart. If Camejo can get Amazing American (10) right off the claim, I think he could be upset minded. He had a nice string of races snapped two back when he completely faltered on the turn. He followed that up with a dull effort last out when there wasn’t a lot of pace to set up his late his run. He’s run well in the past when the pace is quick in front of him, and with a full field here today, I don’t think that will be a concern. Shakin Silver (11) is the logical favorite, coming off a nice win against $12,500 maiden claimers here last out. He had three straight second place finishes before that, so he can definitely run a little bit. This is a logical spot to tackle winners for the first time. Go Ortego Go (12) also makes some sense as he defeated Shakin Silver to break his maiden three starts ago. He went on to be overmatched with open $10K N2L claimers at Delta two back and state bred $20K N2L here last time. He should have a forward move on the drop to this level. Cajun Berti (5) is a little interesting as a price horse shipping from Delta. He’s run two solid races with $10K maiden claimers. Moving to $5K N2L company is a logical move from Alan Klafner, whose horses have run well in a limited sampling at this current meet. He could have another forward move in his if he takes to the local course. He’s worth including on deeper tickets.