Fair Grounds Racing Preview – 3/26/21 – By Eric Solomon

The final Friday of the 20-21 Fair Grounds Meet features 9 races, highlighted by an optional claiming/allowance featured race on the grass in Race 8. Races on yesterday’s card were again taken off the turf. The forecast is more promising today, but I’ll still handicap for both surfaces for all four of the turf races scheduled this afternoon.

Race 1:

The opener is a multi-conditioned $12,500-$10,000 state bred claiming race for four year olds and up that have never won two races or three year olds. Two of the eight horses (seven betting interests) are three year olds. Gem of Carlos (7) is moving up in class for new trainer Kenneth Hargrave, who claimed him for $5K last out. He doesn’t have a ton of two turn experience, but his race two starts ago at 1 Mile and 70 yards was pretty solid, yielding late that day to Our Bermuda and My Guitar, both of which came back to win in their next starts. Half a Bite (2) is logical in this spot, as he has some tactical early foot in a race that is devoid of any serious pace. He was second behind My Guitar at this level last out and now makes his third start in this form cycle. He should be tough in this race as well.

Race 2:

This is not the strongest group of state bred maiden special weight horses that has assembled for a turf sprint. Benbow Cat (6) feels very logical after digging in very gamely to hold third against open maiden special weight horses in the beginning of March. He ran a poor effort last out in an off the turf race. This three year old’s turf form is far superior to his dirt form. Unless someone steps up, I don’t see anyone catching him on the grass. Fluffpoint (2) is the most likely horse that could take that step up on the grass. His last effort on the main track at the state bred $20K maiden claiming level was strong. Duhon has a good record in turf sprints, so he seems to know where to spot his horses. I like that he is now protected, and he looks like a player on both surfaces here. I’ll upgrade morning line favorite Candy Shopper (8) on dirt, and use him on deeper tickets on the turf. He’s run two solid efforts on Tapeta at Golden Gate, so there’s reason to believe he’ll be capable on the grass. He’s burned a lot of money as the beaten favorite in his last three though. On dirt, this field looks very soft, so there’s reason to think he can succeed.

Race 3:

State bred maiden fillies, for the bottom claiming tag ($10K) for maiden races at the Fair Grounds. There’s not a ton of talent in this field, but there is notable class relief for Diamond Lady (4). Toss her last against Louisiana bred maiden special weight fillies where she came up empty. She showed some speed before fading two back at the same condition at two turns. Three back she faced open $12,500 maiden claimers. This should be the softest field she’s seen at this meet, and she gets back to two turns. She has a post advantage over some of the other shorter priced horses. Kittenofthe Court (3) disappointed last out at this level, but she was forced five wide into the first turn, and came up empty late. She adds blinkers and gets a much better post. I think she can move forward somewhat off her last attempt. Looking Hot (7) has made steady progress over her last four efforts if you’re willing to forgive the non-effort she put forth in the slop two back. She was second to a much the best winner last out at this level and there doesn’t seem to be anyone of that caliber with this group today. I’m going to use these three to try to beat the tepid morning line favorite, Langfuhr’s Angel (10). She’s had many chances to graduate and keeps coming up short. She stretches out, back to two turns, which may be better for her, but she gets the worst of the draw here. She hasn’t been sharp since coming back from the layoff, so I feel she is vulnerable in today’s race.

Race 4:

$50,000-$40,000 maiden claiming three year old fillies are scheduled to go on the turf here. Pie Killer (6) is the most likely winner inhere dropping out of maiden special weight company and into the maiden claiming ranks. She looks like she could inherit and easy lead, unless one of the first time starters proves to be eager in the early going. This will be her second race off a layoff and her second race at two turns, so I’m thinking improvement can be expected. Princess Doir (5) is another one that is dropping into maiden claiming for the first time. Her lone turf try was a solid effort with maiden special weights at Sam Houston, where she came with her late move and hung in the stretch. She might be one that’ll benefit from the longer stretch on this course. Sweet Workout (2) is also a logical player in here after two straight second place finishes at this level. If a solid pace does develop, she could be the main beneficiary. On the dirt, I think Jail House Food (10) becomes the one to beat. She was claimed at this level by Maker last out in her turf debut. She wasn’t great on the lawn, but she showed potential on the dirt. This is a smart spot for her. The other main track only entrant, Forever Mesa (9) is also worth a look as she comes off a 2 and ½ month freshening. She’s faced several next out winner in both career maiden special weight starts and would be getting notable class relief here.

Race 5:

Three year old Louisiana bred maiden claimers run with a $12,500 tag in the fifth today. 15 entered, but only 12 can go. The Three Ks (10) makes his 5^th career start this afternoon after running 5^th, beaten 8 at this level last out. He has to gain about 5 lengths on morning line favorite, Banquet Chef (6), which I think is a doable task. He ran similar Beyer figures in his first two tries, jumped up in his third start and paired that Beyer last time out. I think he could be due for a bump, as he’s been pretty consistent. I also like the rider switch to Aubrie Green, who ridden a few winners in the last few days, including a $60 winner for this one’s trainer, Kevin Williams. Ima Sunny Song (3) tried two turns last out at this level and it didn’t go well. He was third two back behind Shakin’ Silver, who went on to break his maiden a few starts back, and beat winners yesterday. I expect one of his better efforts today while cutting back to 6 Furlongs. Banquet Chef has the best consistent figures in the group, but there always seems to be someone that jumps up to defeat him. He too is cutting back in distance, after finishing 3^rd at 1 Mile last out. I’ll cover with him, but I don’t want to take a short price. A longer priced option on deeper tickets with some possible upside is Guilty as Charged (5). His debut was bad in September at Louisiana Downs, but he showed some improvement when dropping to the $25K maiden claiming level. He tried turf next out and ran ok. He’s been off for three months, and has worked okay for his return. His trainer, Whitney Zeringue, has positive angles with turf to dirt, route to sprint, and running off the 61-180 day layoff.

Race 6:

This optional claiming/starter allowance contest brings back six of the nine competitors at this level from the 3/5 race, when Spectrolite (2) threw down the gauntlet and ran huge to get the win. Off that effort, I do wonder if he’ll be able to run back to such a big race. I’ll cover with that one as he might just be in really good form right now, however, if this race stays on the grass, I’ll be trying to beat him with Just Blaze (4) and Tigerbeach (9). Just Blaze was third in the 3/5 race, despite running a typical solid effort. He’s been right there in his last three turf sprints, and should get a better set up today with a little more speed signed on early. Tigerbeach is an interesting longshot and newcomer to this division. He has some solid races on turf and synthetic. He’s 5-11 at this distance and has only finished off the board one time. His recent dirt form hasn’t been great, but it’s getting better. I think he can wake up getting back on the grass here. On the dirt, Loopallu (8) is definitely the one to beat. She’s a speedy six year old mare that may have lost a step, but she still seems faster than whatever would be left of this field. Cheers To Berti (2B) is also on to consider adding on deeper tickets. She wasn’t in great form, but may have been woken up on the grass last out. She’s a proven winner, winning 13 of 38 career starts and 11 of 28 on a fast dirt track.

Race 7:

The start of the day’s last Pick 3 is a pretty wide open multi-condition $15,000-$10,000 claiming race for older horses that have never won twice or three year olds. I’m definitely looking for some value here. Three of the ten entered are three year olds taking on their elders, and I think two of them have a big shot here. Delta invader Lode of Blarney (9) ran two strong races in Vinton in two turn, 6 and ½ Furlong races. Three back, he didn’t run too bad here when facing a field of pretty useful $15K maiden claimers. I think he’s a threat to take another step forward here. In The Arch (10) flopped last out in a two turn contest at this level. He was claimed by Richard, and he turns him back right away to a sprint, where he has shown much more consistent efforts. Leading rider James Graham getting the call won’t hurt his chances either. Daggers Arch (1) drops from $25K claiming for his second race off the layoff. His last was not his greatest effort, but he was away slow, so perhaps that took him off his game. He’s shown ability to be competitive with better in the past, so I believe he can rebound on the drop in class.

Race 8:

The feature optional claiming/N1X allowance, draws, arguably, the most successful horse of the meet, All Fact (9), who has four wins and second in five starts this season. She’s been dominating the optional claiming/starter allowance condition races on grass, and even took home the prize last out when that race was taken off the grass. This is a step up, but she certainly appears to be up to the task on either surface. On deeper tickets, Lebkuchen (5) is an interesting longshot here that usually runs competitive races on the grass. She faced Louisiana bred stakes company last out, and finished fourth. Prior to that, she won two in a row against softer. She’ll have to step up to win here, but as a four year old, she’s certainly eligible to do so. Chikara (3) is the most logical threat to the favorite in here. She was claimed three back when she beat $20K conditioned claimers. She tried allowance company on dirt two back, which was a toss, and ran a decent 4^th against a next out winner (Yes It’s Ginger) while sprinting last out. The 7 and ½ Furlong distance should be right up her alley if she’s good enough. If the price differential between All Fact and her widens, she will be more enticing. On dirt, Break At Dawn (4) is one to upgrade in her third race off the layoff here. She was in better form at Remington this fall, but would be capable against a depleted field if this race came of the grass.

Race 9:

The nightcap is an evenly matched state bred optional claiming/N2X allowance for fillies and mares. 12-1 longshot, Money Well Spent (10) comes in here in good form after two solid two turn races on the turf at this condition. Three back, she dominated an N1X allowance field while sprinting. I think she’s an improving four year old that could take a step forward getting back on dirt at a decent price. Strong Beauty (7) disappointed at 4-5 at this level last out when racing the slop. She just missed two back, losing a photo at this level. She’s clearly better on a fast course, and very capable with these. Galaxy Thirtysix (5) is coming off two open length wins, one on turf and one on dirt here. She’s in great form at seven years old and has good numbers at the track and distance. She’s got an interesting streak going where the winners of her previous five races, have come back to win their next start. If she wins here, she would personally extend that streak to six.