Fair Grounds Racing Preview – 3/27/21 – By Eric Solomon

Two evenly matched state bred stakes races, plus large fields and great betting races throughout the card highlight the penultimate day of racing this season. In terms of the jockey and trainer standings, Adam Beschizza won twice yesterday, narrowing the gap to four wins behind leading rider James Graham. Ron Faucheux trained a winner yesterday to extend his lead over Brad Cox to four wins. The track yesterday was upgraded to fast, so there’s hope that the five turf races scheduled for today and the six scheduled for tomorrow will go on as planned during closing weekend. I will still handicap for both surfaces, as I won’t have a chance to update my selections later on in the day.

Race 1:

The opener on the final Saturday card of the meet is for $30K-$25K N3L claimers at one mile on the turf. A lot of how you handicap determines how you feel about the quick drop in class from Shake Some Action (7) coming off a solid effort against allowance foes on the turf. He was a $300K purchase that was gelded prior to his last start, so getting the return on investment off the track, no longer is viable. Two back, he was entered in the Grade 3 Matt Winn, running 7^th behind Maxfield. He’s a player on either surface, but one to be cautious with. I’ll use him as a B horse on turf and dirt, looking to beat him, but covering him. Takafumi (5) is interesting to me on the turf, if he can stretch out and get the mile distance. His pedigree suggests that a mile will be within his range. I thought his effort two back in optional claiming/allowance company was strong. The horse who beat him, Bad Beat Brian, stepped up to beat N2X allowance foes in his next start. I willing to draw a line through his last on the dirt. Dune of Pilat (2) is the main threat on either surface. He also drops to claiming company after being recently gelded, but to me, this drop makes a little more sense. He ran well enough on dirt two back, but Enforceable freaked that day and put up a triple digit Beyer. He was a wide third in the mud as the favorite in an off the turf race last out. He had a tough trip, but ran well against tougher in his last time on the turf at Keeneland in October. Chantry Flats (8) may have to work early to try to clear this field, but he’s one I’ll use on deeper tickets. He looked like he was possibly starting to return to his better form last out, when beating multi-conditioned claimers at this tag, with a gate to wire performance. He’s third off the layoff today, and facing slightly better. When he was in better form in 2019, he ran multiple good races in a row, and making his third start in three months suggests he’s healthier now.

Race 2: The Shantel Lanerie Memorial

Louisiana bred fillies in mares get their last chance to run in stakes company at the current meet. This is an interesting seven horse race where the distance and the surface will likely be the equalizer here. There are four short prices here, but of that group, one is more of a sprinter and the other is better on grass. Allen Landry sends out two here, Saints N Muskets (2) and Net A Bear (7). I prefer the slightly larger price horse, with Saints N Muskets. She’s traded punches with Quikfast N Ahurry (4) in stakes company at Delta, splitting their last two meetings. She’s drawn well to make the front end from her inside post. She has won on this course and her last three dirt tries have been sharp. Quikfast N Ahurry is the other logical player in here. Like her rival, Saints N Muskets, she didn’t run her best race three weeks back on grass in the Red Camelia. She comes back to her preferred surface and course. One of the longer prices that might be worth a flyer is Crescentcitypretty (5). She’s second off a long layoff, and returning to two turn dirt races, which looked to be where she was going to succeed when she was a three year old stakes winner in 2019. It still remains to be seen if she’s the same horse that she was two years ago, but at double digit odds, and with two vulnerable horses at shorter odds, she might be worth tossing underneath in the vertical exotics, and adding to deeper vertical tickets.

Race 3:

Maiden claimers, running with a $30,000-$25,000 tag go 1 mile on the turf here. The two favorites are very logical in this spot. Summer Palace (8) makes a lot of sense dropping to maiden claiming after a series of respectable efforts at the maiden special weight level that were good, but not good enough. He’s been beaten by capable horses before, and the claiming tag is only $10K less than his purchase price. He’s also proven capable on course that is less than firm. Brad Cox has been awfully tough dropping lightly raced horses into this condition at this meet, and he does it again with Sharp Rocket (7), who was recently gelded. His lone turf try at the maiden special weight level was encouraging. His last was washed off the turf, and it wasn’t a great effort. Cox has won with 35% of his class droppers to maiden claiming over the last two years, so he knows where to spot them. Awesummer (9) is 20-1 on the morning line, which to me, is way too high. He dropped to this level last out and ran a decent 4^th while getting a wide trip from post 10. He draws near the outside again, and runs for new connections off the claim. To me, anything over 6-1 is good value on this one. If this race comes off the turf, I’m expecting a short field where many of these scratch. Aniclude (4) ran well enough in an off the turf race at this level last out to be considered. Ames Mister (6) has only one dirt start, and had some reasonable excuses for his poor performance. Both could be the best of whatever might be left if they run on the dirt.

Race 4:

An overflow field of 16 entered this state bred $10K maiden claimer at 6 Furlongs. The complexion of this race totally changes if Flashburn (13), who is the first on the AE list to draw in, is able to get in this race. He’s had several chances, but has been a close second in his last three starts, when facing horses that have gone to break their maidens and also beat winners. He’ll have an outside draw for this race if he does go, and it seems like it’s finally his turn. If he doesn’t go, this race is absolutely wide open. Bitsy’s Other Half (3) isn’t one I love, but among this group, I think you have to consider him, especially if Flashburn doesn’t go. He drops for a tag for the first time after running in eight maiden special weight races prior to today’s start. His last two have not been encouraging, while cutting back to a sprint, he may be able to clear the field and keep on going. Permanentdetention (4) was shuffled around in his debut, but still ran on well enough late. There’s reason to think he could take a step forward in his second try. Mr. Old Hat (11) faced open $12,500 maiden claimers last time and went two turns two starts back at this level. His last two sprints in state bred company have been respectable enough to make him a factor with this group.

Race 5:

This is an optional $40,000 claiming/N2X allowance race for fillies and mares, slated to sprint on the turf. The connections of Dance Rhythms (1) will surely be glad to get rid of horses like In Good Spirits and Yes It’s Ginger, who have narrowly defeated her in her last two tries at this level. Several of the others that entered haven’t had the success she’s had against decent fields. She’s versatile enough to sit off a slower pace or drop back and make run with a faster pace. She Can’t Sing (3) is the logical second choice on the turf, and will likely be the odds on favorite, and very tough to beat on the dirt. She too is a versatile filly that doesn’t always win, but she never seems to run a bad race. She was a decent 4^th at this level two back, right behind Dance Rhythms. She just missed two back to Sterling Miss (1A) on the dirt, when perhaps, Brian Hernandez, moved a bit too soon, and she lost the lead in the final strides. Sterling Miss is one of two MTO horses in here. While she did beat She Can’t Sing two back, she ran huge that day, and typically isn’t that sharp. She’s still worth considering though, as the price will likely be a little better.

Race 6:

Louisiana bred $20,000-$15,000 claimers that have either never won four races or have not won twice in six months, run one mile with the short stretch finish line in this race. This eleven horse affair is absolutely wide open. Social Afleet (4) is 20-1 on the morning line, but has a realistic chance while dropping and getting back on the main track. He was a winner at this tag with open company at Keeneland in October putting forth an effort that would easily win in this spot. He was claimed that day by Sarah Delany and entered with state bred stakes company where he was overmatched. His efforts were decent though. Toss his last on the turf and he fits well dropping back to this level. Much Class (1) is one that is moving up in class and coming off the claim by Broberg. He’s been in good form and winning a good percentage of his races. I am slightly concerned that he’s never won two straight for as many times as he’s won, but I like his efforts of late. Payday Too (11) takes the worst of the post draw, but shouldn’t be too affected due to his late running style. He’s been in good form and was just re-claimed by Faucheux, who lost him in February.

Race 7:

Louisiana bred fillies and mares sprint 6 Furlongs under N1X allowance conditions. Speak to Me (11) cuts back to a sprint after showing no interest in going two turns last out when facing winners for the first time. She has more upside than many in this full field. Our Mardi Gras (12) has been progressing nicely when you draw a line through her dull effort in the slop two back. She graduated from the maiden ranks with a front running, three length win last time out. Graham picks up the mount today and may opt to go on the offensive with the outside draw. Grace Forever (2) has spent most of her nine career races racing elsewhere, but her two races on this course have been solid. She was away a little bit slow last time, but ran on well to get second. She could be a factor with a better trip today.

Race 8:

The maiden special weight turf sprints at this meet have been brutally tough to figure out, and this one is no exception. I think Asmussen’s firster, Americaredwhiteblu (6) is live here. Both sire (American Pharoah) and dam sire (Hard Spun), were known for their Triple Crown race efforts, but both have produced quality grass runners. He looks quick in the AM, good enough for Asmussen to relocate him from his Louisiana Downs base to here to make his debut before the close of the meet. Beschizza, who has been red hot this month, gets the mount. Prairie (8) is the likely favorite, and deservedly so after a solid second place effort three weeks ago. He likely needed that race, making his first start in 2 and ½ months. I’m expecting at least a repeat effort, if not better, from him. Silk Trade (1) is slightly intriguing making his second career start today. He showed some early interest, before fading on the far turn in his two turn debut on grass. The pedigree is good, and I think the cut back in distance is a logical move for this one. I’m interested to see if Sanjur decides to throw down early and see how far he can go on him. The form for this field goes astray on the dirt, but Cees Get Degrees (4) has been close many times in off the turf sprints. I think that fields that were left over in his last two tries were better than what might be leftover here. Filippo (13) could draw in if this race gets switched, and he might be the gate to wire threat from his outside draw. He showed improved speed in a maiden claiming contest last out, where he faded late at 6 Furlongs. Cutting back a little and facing many horses that might not prefer dirt should be advantageous.

Race 9:

The last pick three of the afternoon starts with an optional $17,500 claiming/N1X allowance for four year olds and up. Picasso (5) looks interesting in this spot getting back on the dirt. She returned off a four month layoff in a turf sprint where she was a little slow into stride, and never really got to run. His dirt form wasn’t bad, winning in his only start on this course and running well in New York and Kentucky. Spycraft (11) is another one going from turf to dirt after showing ability on the main track earlier in his career. He was claimed two back for $30,000, and gave his new connections an immediate reward by winning handily in a turf sprint. He took a little while to get going in the fall after returning from a ten month layoff, but he’s been rounding into some of his best career form. I think he could run big again.  Laffite’s Fleet (9) seems like he’s more of an underneath horse, but he might be worth a look on top after three strong races at this condition on this course. However, he’s more a closer that has been pace compromised in his last two. There should be more pace on in this race than his last two. On deeper tickets, Silver Galaxy (1) is worth a look after a visually impressive win last put in an off the turf state bred allowance. He’s usually more forwardly placed, but he trailed a long way off the early lead, before launching an impressive rail rally to get the win. This is a decent step up in class but Graham sticks with him. I’m interested to see the tactics they employ today after his last race.

Race 10:

The last turf race of the day is a good one for three year olds that either run under the N1X allowance condition or for a $50K tag. There’s also a decent amount of quality on either surface here. I like Risk Manager (6) in this spot getting back on the grass. The dirt experiment in a very deep field at this level was an obvious flop, however, his two turf starts are decent. He debuted at Keeneland in October and won that race by three lengths, where he was geared down at the wire. He was an okay fourth at Gulfstream in his next start as the beaten favorite, but I can forgive that effort, as some horses really don’t run their best races on that course. I think he showed in this debut that he has a lot of potential talent, and I think he’ll run big today. He’s one of my stronger opinions on the card today, especially if the course is good or softer. I’m going to try to build some tickets around him and use three logical and talented horses as savers. Bryce Canyon (11) gets a rough draw here, but has three very sharp races at this meet. He moves up in class again, but has handled the class jump with style each time. If Graham doesn’t have to use him too hard for early position, I see him being dangerous here. Kobla Mas (2) had some troubled trips in full maiden special weight fields here before traveling to Sam Houston to emphatically break his maiden last out. He comes back here with a decent post and added confidence. I think he can compete at this level. T D Dance (3) is another live horse on the card from the Cox barn. He ran a credible race in stakes company, in the Black Gold, four weeks ago. He drops back to this level, where he just missed in an off the turf spot in December. He’ll be a player on either surface. Mount Athos (1) stretches out and could have a shot while trying the grass for the first time. I prefer him on dirt though, as his first two tries have been solid while sprinting. Sermononthemount (7) is one to think about on deeper tickets on the dirt as well. He was overmatched in the Risen Star, but cleared this condition in allowance company at Delta two back.

Race 11: The Star Guitar

The final stakes contest of the meet is for older Louisiana breds at 1 Mile and 1/16. This race drew a solid field of ten, many of who are familiar with each other. My strategy here is to try to beat the morning line favorite, Underpressure (8). He’s an accomplished horse coming off a state bred stakes win at Delta. He’s consistent winning 14 of 40 and finishing on the board in another 15 starts. However, he’s only won twice in 11 tries on this course, I’m going to look elsewhere instead of taking the short price on him. Jus Lively (7) feels like to one to beat in this race, as he has won half of his twelve career starts. He’s very tactical, so Beschizza can get him to adapt to any pace scenario that may present itself. Relentless Dancer (9) might be an interesting longshot to consider in his second race off the layoff. He went off form a bit in the latter part of his three year old campaign, while facing open stakes competition. He won both of his starts in state bred stakes company on the main track and has been competitive in graded stakes races in the past. He’s a new face in this division that could make some noise. Maga Man (4) has been a new horse since the Steve Flint claim three back. He moved up to allowance company and scored in his first race off the claim, and followed that effort up with a sharp race on the grass three weeks ago in the Dixie Poker Ace. If he continues to thrive in his new barn, he’s going to player in this division. Pound for Pound (5) is likely to set the pace in this spot. He draws closer to the rail, which should help his cause. He felt like he was always chasing last time instead of running freely. Aubrie Green has been aboard for three of his seven career runs and she just missed with him at 24-1 in this race two years ago.