Fair Grounds Racing Preview – 3/28/21 – By Eric Solomon

Closing day at the New Orleans Fair Grounds has arrived. Barring some wild outcomes, James Graham should be the leading rider and Ron Faucheux should be the leading trainer for the 20-21 meeting. As for me, I’ll be covering the upcoming Keeneland meet for In The Money. Today’s final card is turf heavy with six of the nine races going on the Stall Wilson turf course. As has been the norm throughout the meet, there are some good betting races with decent field sizes. There are also some unusual conditions in races sprinkled throughout the card.

Race 1:

The racing office tried to get this 1 Mile and 9/16 race to go last month on the turf, but the weather caused that race to be moved to the dirt. It’s nice to see that they brought that same optional claiming/starter allowance back to start the last card of the meet. The top two finishers of the 2/16 race that was moved to the dirt, Original Intent (4) and Chop Chop Charlie (3) are back here today. Of those two, I think Chop Chop Charlie prefers the turf a little bit more and will get the call from me. He’s shown an affinity for taking command early in these marathon races and trying to take them all the way around. He came up just short last time on the dirt and on the turf at 12 Furlongs at Kentucky Downs this past fall. Jimmy D (5) showed an ability to stay when he was second in a 15 Furlong turf contest at Golden Gate Fields in October. His form has been a little shaky in his three starts at Turf Paradise, but his one turf race there was solid. He was in better form in the fall in Northern California, and gets Colby Hernandez, who’s coming off a three win Saturday, to ride.

Race 2:

This maiden claiming turf sprint is carded for three year olds and upward, but only one of the ten entered, Miss Dogwood (1A) is older than 3. She looks live in this race after taking a hard bump at the start in her debut. She lost position going into the turn and ended up going four wide on the turn before fading late. If she’s able to get away a bit cleaner, she could have an impact in this wide open race. Foley’s horses usually improve second out, so her stablemate Miss Mamba (1) might struggle in this spot and is one I wouldn’t bet on her own. However, I don’t mind getting her in the package deal if both parts of the entry compete. Mary Jack (5) debuts for Jeannsome after showing some decent works on the main track. Beschizza takes the mount on this daughter of Palace Malice. She won’t have to be great to win this race. Wrapper Rule (8) has two decent dirt tries, including a fast race in the slop in her debut. She is bred by Candy Ride, so there’s reason to believe she’ll take to the turf. I don’t love the 2-1 morning line, so I’m hoping for a little better value, but this is not the strongest bunch.

Race 3:

The first race on the main track is a state bred $10K maiden claiming contest at 6 Furlongs with 16 entered (12 + 4 AE’s). There is absolutely no early foot signed on for this race, unless a few of the AE’s draw in. Mrs. Della (15) and Deezee Dial (16) could be worth a look if they get into the body of the field as they are both likely to be forwardly placed horses that are in their second try off the layoff. I think both could make sense here, and I’d use them as B and C horses, respectively, if either draws into this wide open race. If neither makes it in, I think Ours Forever (12) is the one to beat. She has excuses in her two awful races where she was going two turns in the slop two back and was pulled up against maiden special weight horses four back. Her three other starts show steady improvement and without the either Mrs. Della or Deezee Dial in the race, I don’t see anyone else seriously challenging her for the early lead. Custom for Aly (5) may be the one most likely to catch to the early leaders as she reunites with Aubrie Green. Mitchell Murrill didn’t seem to connect with this horse, as her two best races came with other riders aboard. Green was there for her second place finish in January, when she was moving well late at 19-1. She has paired her last two Beyers and could be eligible for a slightly forward move. If either of the two AE’s draw in, I would move her to an A, along with Ours Forever. Both My Rebel Girl (4) and Opps My Bad (10) are coming out of a common race where neither broke well and both three year old fillies left themselves with too much work to do. Neither typically has a wealth of early speed, which is a bit of a concern for any short priced horse in this race. I’ll use them both on deeper tickets.

Race 4:

They’re back on the turf with allowance horses that have never won twice or have never won $10K in a race other maiden, claiming, starter, or state bred. Figures players will look to Attorney Tim (4) in this spot, who came within two lengths of Darain, who is likely stakes bound, last out at this level. He’s been second in his last three, so steady improvement with his speed figures. My concern is that he often leaves himself with too much work to do. It’s hard to accept a short price on a horse with this running style, as so much of his race is trip dependent. I’ll use him, but I prefer Stanford (3) who beat horses at this type of level in Great Britain last July. He remains eligible because of the low purse for that race. He was within four lengths of the winner with a crowded trip in the Woodchopper here in December. He had a wide draw that day and was relegated to the back of the pack in the early stages, and never really was able to get free. He ran better last out with a clean trip at Sam Houston. I think he can sit a closer to the early lead and get the first run on Attorney Tim. Toma Todo (2) is also live here if you can forgive his last. Two longshots ran off last out and he didn’t take kindly to rating off that duo. He angled out for his late run, shied away from a narrow opening, and didn’t kick on. He wants to be in front on the turn, and there doesn’t seem to be anyone stopping him from getting the lead. I think he’ll sit a better trip today if he’s good enough.

Race 5:

State bred fillies and mare $5K N2L claimers go in the fifth, ending the early Pick 5 and starting the last Pick 5 of the meet. This is another race with an overflow field, as 14 have entered with 12 that will go. I’m completely leaving off second choice Gilded Apple (3) off any multi-race ticket. She has started 19 times in her career and has been the beaten favorite in ten of those starts. She did finally break her maiden as the favorite two back, but after watching her last race, where she was the beaten favorite, it seems that the lightbulb hasn’t fully gone on. He’s more likely to be in the bottom of the vertical exotics. Ezee Enough (8) is the likely favorite off the claim by Asmussen. She was second in the 3/7 race at the same condition, which seemed to be a better heat than some of the other races that have been run under this common condition at the track. I’ll use her as an A, but I’m looking to throw a few others in there to hopefully catch a price. Crypto Brave (9) interests me coming back to this level. Four starts back, she was an emphatic winner at the state bred $10K maiden claiming level. She tried better three back and was embarrassed. Two back she caught a sloppy track at this level and did not run well, beaten by next out winner Maw Maw’s Sophia, who also was second in a state bred N1X allowance last out. She again faltered with better and now returns to this 5K level where she belongs. I expect a better effort from her today. Nine Line Bind (5) came within 2 lengths of Ezee Enough last out when dropping to this level for the first time. She finished well and could improve, as she is more lightly raced than some of the others in here. Custom Gulch (13), coming off a maiden win with a weaker group of $10K maiden claimers, is one I’ll use on deeper tickets if she draws in. Despite winning with a soft field, her last two efforts have shown improvement. I’d like to get better than 9-2 on her if she does draw in though.

Race 6:

Three year old fillies run in an optional $50K/N1X allowance spot on the turf to start the late Pick 4. I think this is another wide open spot where coverage will be important. I’m interested to see what Girl’s On Fire (1) does for an encore after being much the best on debut with a compact group of $50K maiden claimers in her debut. Saez put her on the lead and she was never challenged after setting some slow fractions. There’s not a lot of competition for the early lead here, and with her rail draw, and I can see a similar scenario playing out here. Dramatizer (6) also beat a group of $50K maiden claimers on the turf here two back. She tried stakes company in the Allen LaCombe Memorial last out, but was wide on both turns and never got going. I can see her returning to better form while on the drop. Postnup (5) has two strong efforts at the meet against maiden special weight foes on the turf. She broke her maiden last out at 9 Furlongs and beating a compact field that day. Two back she was beaten by Saranya, who went on to win at this level and was stakes placed most recently. She should sit a good trip and should be a factor here. I’ll save morning favorite, Cecile’s Chapter (9) for deeper tickets. Her two turf starts were good, including a 4^th place finish in stakes company in September at Kentucky Downs. She’s sent out by Brad Cox, whose horses seem to be live anywhere on any surface at the moment. However, she’s making her first start of the year, and she didn’t show great progress at two. Perhaps she has moved forward at three, but I’m not willing to take too short of a price to find out.

Race 7:

This race is for state bred optional $12,500 claiming/starter allowance horses, sprinting 5 and ½ Furlongs. The pace figures to be lively, and I think the benefactor could be Born Again George (5), who closed to beat a field at this level two back. The pace wasn’t as swift last time out, and he got into third. I think there’s a real possibility of seeing a sub 22 early quarter here, which should be right up his alley. I think he can rebound here and close into the picture late. The race lost a bit of the early pace when both parts of the Faucheux entry scratched. The two with the best early foot are C’mon Ve (7) and My Wise Cat (9). There’s a distinct possibility that these two could duel themselves into submission here. However, they may be quick enough to clear and battle all the way around. I’ll cover with both in the event that one isn’t as sharp from the gate and pace duel doesn’t really percolate.  

Race 8:

The late double is an interesting sequence with both races on the grass and both races carrying interesting conditions. This leg is for Louisiana breds running with a $20,000-$15,000 tag who have either never won three times or have not won a race at the current meet. I like Greeley Gone West (2) here getting back on the grass. He has three turf races, two of which are sharp and either of those efforts puts him right there with this group. He had a miserable trip two back on the grass, checking hard and having to stop his move. With a clean trip today, I think he can be right there at a price with this group. Papa’s Boy (4) is the logical favorite here, dropping from Optional Claiming/N2X company, where he was running for the tag, to a conditioned claiming race with the same tag. He moved too soon in a faster paced race last out, but figures to get a smoother run here, while also finding some class relief. Bistraya (10) has one start on the turf, and it was a strong effort at Louisiana Downs back in September. Her current form isn’t the best, but perhaps he can wake up getting back on grass. Reluctant Warrior (8) is notable in here as he’s the only one in this spot that has won a race at the current meet. His last three turf tries have been decent. This is a little bit of a tougher spot, but I think he’s in better form than many others here.

Race 9:

The meet finale is essentially a claiming handicap on the turf. Horses can be entered for a claiming tag as high as $22,500 and as low as $5,000, but they must carry two extra pounds for every additional $2,500 the connections have added to the base $5,000 claiming tag. Race favorite, Space Mountain (5) was claimed for $25,000 last out by Asmussen after finishing second. He returns in this spot, entered with a $22,500 tag, so he gets class relief, but he carries 131, which is 14 pounds more than the low weights in the field that run with 117 pounds. He’s a solid horse that may have lost a step from last season when he was getting a steady diet of stakes races, but he’s still very formidable at this level. Of the horses with lower weights, Foldover (12) is interesting if he can work out a trip from post 12. That may be a big ask, but he does run well on courses that have some give in the ground. If Morales can avoid using him too hard early to gain position, I think he could be tough in the stretch, especially carrying 14 pounds less than the favorite. Firewater Jake (8) is an interesting add for deeper tickets. His 2020 campaign was not good, but he showed more steady turf form in 2019. He returned off the layoff and put forth a solid effort in a turf sprint at the beginning of the month. He returns to two turns and gets a ten pound weight break on the favorite. I could see him taking a step forward. Asmussen also sends out Youvesaiditall (4) who could be the best late threat in this spot. His last two have not been his best, but his Remington form in the fall was solid. If the pace gets too hot, he could be the beneficiary.