Any Stats or percentages are based on specific Scenario in the last 5 years unless stated otherwise. Example – 1st Time Starter / Sprint / Dirt / MSW. TYPO Disclaimer I keep finding my self using abbreviations that I use in my Formulator Trips notes out of habit and some I fail to fix on proof reading.
Race 4 – 3 Year Old’s going 1 1/8th on the Dirt.
1 (A) Fightertown gets back to the Dirt and adds Blinkers today for Mott. Like many in this race has a lot of question marks, he ran well on the turf in NY then shipped to Florida got washed off the grass two back, and ran better than looks on paper in his last. No Current Workout info but worked well on the dirt prior to debut last year. OLDWORKOUT INFO – 8-21-22 Worked Sharp from the gate on even terms with Game Warden who is in here as well. 8-28-22 – Best over Jungrau who broke his maiden over the Dirt at GP on Dec 31st then ran in the Withers.
2 (B) Sgt. Pepper took a ton of money on debut even when workouts had his barn mate Cuvier working a bit better. Pletcher is 33% 2ndSt/Dirt/Rte/MSW in the last 5 years. But I have never been a fan of going from a sprint to 9F, Pletcher stats drop to around 10% when you look at same scenario but 9F or more…
3 (A) Summer Cause I have interest in the debut at AQ stayed on well entire stretch finishing just ahead of Tapit’s Trice and galloped out nicely that day. Came back to be bested by Tapit’s Trice running very well. Then at Tampa had a change of tactics when rated off the pace and making a big run late just to miss at wire going right by in gallop out. Adds Blinkers today, maybe Clement just trying to figure out how to get the best out of this one.
4 (B) Game Warden I like a bit as well but caution I have always been a sucker for big run closer types…. Game Warden did not show a lot last year, but in his last sit way off the pace and made a big run late making up a lot of ground. Did not show a hole lot on the gallop out. OLD WORKOUT NOTE on the 1 ties into this one. Alvarado is riding the 1 here, Not sure how much to put into this, but Alvarado was working this one all last summer and Irad rode in last and gets on the 2.
5 (C) Immense Faith ran well in last, broke sharp and stalked leader, Stayed on well entire stretch the 1-2 finishers slowly inched away from him. Unfortunately you can’t see the gallop out which is case on several races as the soapbox time. Camera man holds on the wire way to long then zooms in on the winner in the gallop out often. CMON MAN!! 20-1 Will be a huge price in a group with a lot of questions.
6 Full Coverage, After 2 Turf tries now moving to the dirt for the first time and by Kittens Joy. Nothing positive there but does get LX and adds Blinkers today. OLDWORKOUT INFO 9-24-22 worked with First to Act (G2 Placed) was 2nd best and may have just been used as a target for talented runner.
7 (C) Tshiebwe will take money today I think… Debut ran into Confidence Game who won the Rebel yesterday, Then Extra Anejo, moved to Pletcher and took a ton of money last out only to disappoint. Horse has always worked well. I am fine getting beat by this one. I simply have had enough of him.
I found this one to be tough with no idea how the pace is going to shake out. Multi race tickets for me only using the ALL Button. If forced to narrow I would not be confident investing much. Using just my A’s would be trying to tread water.
Top Pick – 3 – Summer Cause Alternate – 1 Fightertown
Race 6 3 Year Old Fillies going 1 1/16th on the DIRT
1 (A) Affirmative Lady has been a thorn in my side. After her debut I put her on my watch list, then I bet her on the BC Friday undercard LOST and again in the Demoisel when she tried stakes company as a Maiden only to lose the photo. I did stop the bleeding for her last lol. Drops back to Maidens today and gets LX / BLKS. Alvarado also lands here and not on the Mott runner. She is going to be everyone’s Single and top pick. She should be heavily bet and not worth the wager.
2 Her Ladyship made her second career start on the dirt with no Turf option at CD, then wanted the Turf in her last only to loose the rider. Now enters on the Dirt again a bit confusing. Has been working with Red Carpet Ready but no match for her.
3 Milan Mischief workout report is less than stellar and oddly in 5 years Romans only has 3 first time starters who went long on the dirt. 0 for 3 with 2 – 3rds. 1 of which was Cyclone Mischief. Hard pass
4 Ocean Club was clear 2nd best to Bandita in her last, stayed on same pace in stretch after having perfect trip.
5 Nothing But Pumps ran very well in her last after being claimed for 35K, claiming one for 35 out of debut is a gutsy move in my opinion. She definitely out ran her odds in her last, coming out of the same slow race as the 8. I will pass but will be huge price.
6 Arrow Bolt took money on debut and had some nice works prior but was bested by Ocean Club that is in here as well. Of course should improve with experience but was dull in stretch after making an early move. Lot of jockey swapping going on here. Jose goes to the 8, and Alvarado went to the Motion Runner. Would not surprise me but will bet the agents no more than I do…..
7 (B) Just My Own is a half to Mine That Bird out of Justify. Debut showed some talent, got bumped around at that start a bit then moved out 3W was rank early. Ridden early but responded well making a 3 wide move through the turn and improved in the stretch. Pletcher is 33% 2nd Start/Dirt/Rte/MSW and this one needed some race experience. I do question why debut was at Tampa Bay? Gets Irad today but I would also think Castellano would had call to keep mount but hard to say. She is the only one I have any interest in outside the favorite. OLDWORKOUT – I do not like giving out current workout info but not sure why the current does not mention the Jan 22nd Work from the gate with Bandita who won Impressively on debut.
8 Biloxi Blues last she finished strong and galloped out nicely, but hard to ignore how slow that race was. Barn is 16% in this scenario and Jose sticks around.
Top Pick – 1 – Affirmative Lady Alternate – 7 Just My Own
Possibly a Small Exacta Wager 1 over the 7, but that will depend on the probable.
Nick,
Could you expalin the difference inTRAINING track surface from PAY,PMM,PBD,GP. 5f @ 100.1B
WHAT WORKOUT IS MORE IMPRESIVE ? I enjoy better workouts from the saratoga training facility then Bel or Sar. I don’t know enough about the differences regaurding Florida trining facilities
I do not have much of an answer on the difference in surfaces, Me personally would not put any value into a horse training at one facility over the other.
As far as what workout is more impressive? This opens a possible rabbit hole to go down and back….. I am assuming you are speaking of workout information listed on the past performances. This is just my opinion, fast workouts listed on PP’s are great to see but they mean little to myself if I do not know how they accomplished the clocking. So workout reports become very important while keeping in mind these workout reports are someone else’s opinion. Some workouts we can watch for ourselves on XBTV or through past sales. What I do use the listed workout information on PP’s for primarily is to look for dates of workout that may suggest a horse missed a workout or maybe a change of surface Dirt / Turf / Syn a horse picked up the pace. Video really would becomes significant when identifying improvement with a change of surface.
Hard to keep that answer short but I hope that helped in some way, if something you would like to hear more information on, Leave a suggestion or can message me on twitter @c_cupples Thanks for the question Chris Cupples (Not Nick lol) Maybe I can see what Nick input on this one be and write something up.