Time Starter /MSW / Turf / Route = %
Any mention of Figures refers to my personal figures unless stated otherwise.
Expect typos and grammar errors! Time is of the essence and I do not even have the budget for intern around here.
Please feel free to leave Comments or reach out to me on Twitter (@c_cupples) with any questions and/or suggestions.
I will be covering the Early Pick 5 in detail, and quick thoughts on rest of card.
You can find John Pinder’s work on the late Pick 5 under the Gulfstream Park menu as well here at Inthemoneypodcast.com
The NEXT TWO WEEKS…… The NHC see is fast approaching and with more tracks drawing cards early I think it changes the game a bit. March 7th, 8th , 9th… I am 50/50 if I will be writing up Gulfstream as instead I will be digging into cards for NHC Weekend. I will definitely try.
March 14th 15th 16th is the NHC so I will not have anytime to get anything out.
Will Update once I see Clocker report and again Post Scratches.
Early Pick 5
R1 – 1 4 7 B – 3 5
R2 – 1 10 13
R3 – ALL
R4 – 3
R5 – 1
Race 1 is a 8K N3L and unfortunately I would like to use 5 of the 7.
A LINE
1 Love Paradox will race on the dirt for the first time (No Works to watch) Dropped to this level for the first time last out with Irad up and took money, also has enough to get good position early.
4 Mama Maria takes a big drop after the poor performance last time which came off the a long layoff. You have to go back nearly a year to find her best dirt races which match the horse I assume will be favored.
7 Cajun Anthem has speed with the outside post which should give her a good trip the issue is the 6 furlongs. She ran her best race to date last out going 5.5 and she was throwing in the towel quickly at 16th pole.
B LINE – both I have on the B Line I would not blame anyone for including on their A LINE.
3 Classic Diva made her first start for Spatz last time with Irad aboard and took NO MONEY ?? Makes her second start for a new barn and off the layoff , but has only one official work since that last out.
5 Sonadora Girl is the horse I assume will be favored here with Paco up, getting some class relief, possibly the best speed and has races that soundly beat this group. TWO REASONS AGAINST! Vet scratch Dec 20th here at Gulfstream and again Dec. 12th at Tampa. I can include a horse like this but never bet or lean on.
Race 2 is a MSW for 4 year old and up. Very important to pay attention to scratches as there are two contenders on the AE’s that are big threats if draw in. If either draw in than I will be just using my A’s and I may do that anyway.
A LINE I am putting the price as my top pick from a value standpoint but this group left me without a clear top selection.
1 Without Cause comes off a big layoff and her prior races were solid although none will make you love her in this spot today. What I like is the post , she has never ran over the Gulfstream Turf and Fairground turf is nothing similar. Feb 21st work – sub 46 under a big hold and went out well.
10 Brazilian Girl might be a massive price in here but I do not care. I do not know who the new trainer is nor the old one. What I do know is this filly has 4 turf routes that are solid, she was beaten less that 3 lengths in the Tepin Stakes as a maiden, the July 21st race at Ellis (Similar Turf) by my figures is a far cry better than any others who have experience and the price should be right.
11 Fleetingly is one of the rare times I have a Chad Brown Maiden at Gulfstream on my A Line. She was far back at Tampa and closed into a moderate pace while doing he best running the final 16th of a mile, but it was not a performance that made me go wow Chad has a good one.
13 Annulled (AE) if draws into the field I expect Irad to be on her trying the turf for the first time. Pletcher / Irad , has experience, Tapit, etc. It all makes sense.
14 restless Dreamer (AE) is another who needs to draw in and if she does I expect Paco to be sending from this outside post. She ran well last time off a three month layoff and her three prior turf routes are nearly as good as anything in this group.
B LINE
7 Hello Beauty had a troubled trip on debut and looked good then tired on Dec. 8th behind some nice horses in a race that is proving to be productive. The last race going 3/16th on the tapeta means little to me.
9 Just So Pretty likely belongs on the A Line after setting fast fraction while off a short layoff last time, she was getting tired quickly late so maybe she moves forward off that effort but I am ok getting beat by this one.
12 Flashy Motor’s debut was decent although looked like routing was not her game. So Casse cut her back and she ran decent on the turf followed by the tapeta.
C – 6 Spinning Class I would throw in if spreading.
Others I am not using but may take money.
3 Tiz Ready will get some attention at the windows if Irad stays on. Claimed from Saffie for DePaulo who is 0 for 14 at the meet … No Thanks
4 Sweet Storm for DeVaux who has quickly become elite when it comes to trainers, but her horses have not ran well here at Gulfstream and she is 6% first time routing/turf/MSW.
Race 3 is for maiden in for $12,500 on the dirt and these bottom level maiden races have repeatedly produced upsets. There is NO logical standout in my eyes.
A LINE – ALL I could spend 15 minutes typing this out but unless something significant comes out on the clocker report I got nothing.
ALL ALL ALL but if you made me pick just one.
4 Royal Ribbon should be fit but has never ran on the dirt and last time took a big drop in class to this level. The 47 bullet on the dirt showing on the paper…. I promise you someone somewhere is telling someone that work is why you bet this horse. Maybe / Maybe Not… Its not available to watch so was it all out with stick , strong hold, loose rein, urged ?? No clue So if someone makes the statement “She is working well” Why?
Race 4 is a spot I may very well go down in flames, but I need to gain some ground in a difficult sequence so I will not be betting the farm on her.
3 Minxy was beaten 27 lengths last time but hear me out… Feb 2024 was a voided claim at Tampa for 16K and goes to the sideline for nearly a year then returns on the tapeta while protected with the waiver condition. Dec 20th was caught late. Jan. 15th went to the lead and Edgar who was on the winner made a move on the backside that was the winning one getting in front of Minxy who does not pass horses and a similar situation happened last time on the dirt. She is the inside speed and I am willing to bet Ruiz does not let anyone by easily this time.
Race 5 I have a lone A by a narrow margin…. as none would be a total surprise.
Lone A – 1 Pretty Liza went off favored last time when she had a near perfect trip saving ground, tipped out and finished well just missing second late. Irad stays aboard and draw the rail again so hoping for that same trip but this time she gets another half furlong.
Race 6 I have no clear top pick here so will spare you the details in a race that looks wide open.
A – 2 3 5
B – 1 8
Race 7 is a bit of a crap shoot as there is a few in here that have showed talent in the mornings but never translated to the afternoon.
A LINE
4 Steppe was working well prior to debut with Camp Hope (Still a maiden and burned some money) Added blinkers for the Feb 1st Gate work and took a step forward.
5 Sarkis was entered last week going a mile and connection opted for this spot going 7 furlongs instead. Comes out of decent race at Tampa and the winner Statesman won again on Wednesday. O’Connell is 29% with 3rdStart/Dirt Sprints/ MD Claimer and of those when dropping in for a tag for the first time 3 for 9.
B LINE – 1 2 7 8 ( the 3 is the only complete toss for me)
Race 8
A LINE
2 Breezer tried routing the last two times with little success so back to sprinting. Last two times this colt sprinted he had husbands aboard and I believe Edgar is an upgrade in pilot. Although this colt is not the fastest I love the try he shows.
9 Starrystarryknight obviously has some issues making his 18th start as a 7 year old. Drops to the lowest claiming price to date and his lone tapeta effort came a year ago with Irad aboard. By my figures that race is by far the best effort of the group, but of course trust is an issue.
10 Beauty Bolt I think is the horse to beat with his two best efforts coming at this distance and surface. Lack of early speed is the issue which will leave him much to do and negotiate traffic but maybe the blinkers gets him more involved eary.
B – 5 6
At the risk of sounding like a moron I wanted to mention 7 Alpha Blue This horse should be 10-1 or more. Two back breaking the maiden the 2nd and 3rd place finishers were 0 for 30 coming into that race. Saffie + Irad would absolutely make zero sense if finds the winner circle.
Race 9 I will chalk out.
Lone A – 2 King D Oro is simply a touch faster than this group and has faced much better in the past. Should sit a rail trip 1 or 2 Lengths back tip and go.
Race 10 I have co-top picks here.
A LINE
4 XY Speed was suppose to win last time and did have a big of trouble early maybe cost him 1 length which allowed Biz Biz Buzz to get the jump on him. Two back his pilot let him down. If he can get back to his from last spring than he is the horse to beat.
9 Yes I am Free got back to Cazares’s barn last time but was drawn inside and this veteran has always done his best work when drawn outside. Hopefully Jaramillo does not mess around like he did last time on XY Speed. SEND HIM!!!
B – 7 Asher’s Edge He will need to take another step forward as he is facing much tougher today. Last time waited in traffic and when Tyler got some daylight he was gone.
C – 11
