Happy Thanksgiving to all and HELLO !! Championship Meet which starts a month earlier this year and in a way started with the arrival of Irad last Friday winning with 10 of 25 mounts in 3 days time.
Covering the entire card today!
ITM plans to have coverage of Gulfstream Thursday through Sunday each week with myself covering the races prior to the late Pick 5 and John Pinder Covering the late Pick 5. Also I’m sure I will chime in with spot plays or more on Wednesday’s occasionally….
Unfortunately I did not find too many strong plays today and if you have read any of my stuff from the last couple years then you know I am extremely patient and selective of my spots. It seems to be a rare occasion at Gulfstream that I do not have at least 1 Lone A somewhere , but that is the case today.
Maybe some scratch help changes this card but as it stands now I will primarily be focusing on multi’s along with the stakes at the end of the card.
Race 1 is possibly the most volatile race on the entire card so hopefully get some scratch help..
A – 3 Dubawi Wowie makes her first start for Abreu after running 3 decent turf routes. This group is nothing special so she fits here even if she does not move forward off the claim.
A – 10 British Empress will be my top selection although not one I am looking to place a wager on. She has the speed to clear from the outside or at least get 1st run position. Her best 2 races came over this course and distance back in the spring.
B – 8 Effervescent will be over bet with Irad aboard and now moves to a new barn. First Turf, First Route , Short Price all adds up to include if spreading.
C – 6 Boot’s On The Moon would be the only one I would consider using coming out of the Oct. 25th race but would need to forward to beat the main contenders.
C – 9 Benet would make the list simply because trying something new for the first time.
Race 2
A – 1 Come Dream With Me will be a very short price and a possible single in early multi’s but not one I would be overly confident in. Does have 2 average races going the 7 furlongs where he struggled to see out the distance.
A – 8 Flat Cap 12-1 is a bit intriguing as the Oct. 18th race going the 7 furlongs was just a good as the favorite and then last time was stuck wide going 3/4’s. I want both on my tickets
B – 7 Scallywag possible is on the lead but I see no reason to trust him getting the distance other than this is a 12.5 MD Claimer so quality is lacking.
If Spreading I would also include
3 Teofimo took no money on debut and did no running but had a decent work on Oct. 26th for this level.
4 Palpito who is trying the dirt for the first time but would need to show much more…..
Race 3
A – 3 Tiz Ruddy Ben is a horse I typically bet against being extremely one paced throughout but in this scenario he looks to be loose on the lead with Paco up.
A – 6 Split Strike is the only unknown in the race by my figures the gap makes him clearly best but those efforts were on the turf and comes off a 6 month break.
The only other 2 that I see as a possibility I will let beat me here
2 Vinicio has races that fit but has constantly been outpaced early and leaves him too much to do.
5 Severance comes off a big break but I did like the debut going 5 furlongs over the tapeta but would like to see it again…
Race 4
A – 1 Xenon will be another short price Irad runner. She has enough speed to clear from the rail but with Irad up assume will take a 1 length back stalking position which could be a mistake if Irad lets Vasquez go on the 2. David Carlos is 2 for 7 in this scenario.
A – 2 Neblina I will give a look after getting on the tapeta last time she broke from an outside post and was hung wide the entire race. Today gets an inside post and adding blinkers.
A – 3 In Other Words drops in for a tag for the first time. Debut was average where she may have needed a race and last time she had no chance at any point being hung extremely wide from the start Edgar just stood up in the Irons off the turn.
Others
7 Unbounded Movement makes her 3rd start trying the tapeta for the first time and dropping in for a tag. No video of the work on Nov. 2nd makes this one a question mark…
11 Dixie Escape is a bit interesting as well being claimed on debut would suggest the new connections seen something in the mornings that grabbed their attention.
Race 5 possibly could blow up all my tickets being a 5 Furlong Turf Sprint in the middle of the card as I will get skinny here with horses that are poorly drawn. No way this ends badly….
A – 9 Orderofthephoenix has Irad aboard which will hurt the price of course, but maybe some factors that help here as well. She has more speed that shows on paper if Irad chooses to use it. She had a rough trip last time at Laurel stumbling slightly at the start then run into a bit of traffic in the stretch.
A – 11 Miyako ran a big race last time breaking her maiden at Indy showing good speed 3 wide then took over at will widening the entire stretch….. A repeat of that performance will be tough to beat
Race 6
A – 1 With Kindness makes her 3rd start for Fawkes who is 2 for 13 in this spot and 46% in the money. She draws the rail AGAIN…. after finishing 2nd in both starts grinding away making her the safest play but has done nothing to get overly excited about.
A – 7 Marty’s Gal I found zero work information on and Terranova is only 9% in this scenario… BUT Irad is aboard so….
A – 8 Grade A will be a price and her work did not blow me away by no means but looked solid and fit. Gets an outside post for a capable barn with first timers. Will be a small win wager for me at a price.
$$$ Wager – Small Win Wager on the 8.
Race 7
A – 3 Loyal Louie maybe needed a race last time coming off the bench. Has races in the spring going 5.5 on the tapeta that fit was this group.
A – 4 Matta has lots of class running behind some talented runners over the last few years and now as an 8 year old drops in for a tag with the tapeta being the question mark. Although they have some age I did find 2 works to watch over the tapeta way back…. Dec 2022 was best over G3 winner Spun Glass over the tapeta, also Jan 23 went 59 and change in hand…….
A – 5 Cadamosto is another taking a big drop in class. He actually won on a debut going 5 furlong at Dundalk, then ran behind Perfect Power, Go Bears Go etc in Group company before shipping west just to run into Big Invasion and Golden Pal.
Race 8 Wait A While Stakes
A – 2 Civetta of course can win here but not taking 9/5 likely shorter stretching out for the first time just because Irad is up…
A – 5 Brutally Honest will get a few of my dollars here. She won a debut leaving lots of room for improvement.
Something I may utilize from time to time, simply copying and pasting from my formulator Notes..
77^^^ SHP UH, 7B 2-3W,, waited early turn, lane opened mid split horses, moved fwd, off turn 6B LEFT Lead lugging in, hand ridden trying get outside, shifted out 8th once clear and ask, Tk off to lead going away Much best Lots of room for improvement
A – 7 Bellavino would be the only one I would have interest in coming out of the Oct 26th race here at Gulfstream when she was under a snug hold a bit to far back then got carried out wide off the turn and made a solid run in the stretch just missing at wire.
$$$$ Wager – I will be looking to win bet the 5 while also playing a 7 over 5 Exacta. If the probable is decent I may play the 2 over the 5 but is more likely I will only be using the 2 in multi race wagers.
