Any Stats or percentages are based on specific Scenario in the last 5 years unless stated otherwise. Example – 1st Time Starter / Sprint / Dirt / MSW. TYPO Disclaimer I keep finding my self using abbreviations that I use in my Formulator Trips notes out of habit and some I fail to fix on proof reading.
Some reason earlier cards this week at Gulfstream just did not appeal to me or maybe I needed a break, but back hunting today. All 3 MSW today are on the Grass, hopefully they stay there….
Race 6 – 5F Turf
1 (A) Accomplished Girl had a good debut coming from off the pace and leveling off at the 16th pole. Saffie is 3 for 11 is this spot and Zayas rides back will improve off that debut. OLD NOTE – Very strong works before debut with Edgar up
2 Millie Jean
3 Royal Blood barn is 0 for 9 in this scenario with a couple 2nd’s. Has some fast works sprinkled in page, would like to have some more info on this one.
4 (A) Balletic deservingly will be a heavy favorite in here. Broke from rail in last and tried to get inside leader early but ran out of room drop couple back saved ground, tipped out and finished well just had nothing for the winner that day. Has been working with solid barn mates nicely the last couple months.
6 Work of Fiction at 20-1 has showed plenty of speed in her previous dirt tries, now tries the grass. This barn is not hesitant to race on the grass so why 4 dirt tries before this move?
7 (A) Lexi’s Spirit ran very well in her last breaking outside pressing the pace and looking good except she had nothing for Daisy Doosy who just ran away from her. She is nearly a carbon copy of the 4 Balletic at double the price.
8 (A) Up For It is the price horse I want on my tickets. Debut was way back in August and not seen since. Broke slow and stayed out wide, closed into a slow pace took over at the 16th pole and looked home only to be nailed late. Gets a totally different type of turf here today, Not leaving this one off my tickets
9 Golden Haven debuts for Sweezey who is 1 for 14 in this spot. Has some solid works on paper.
10 Ransom Style is a bit random as she moved from Pletcher into D’Angelo barn.
11 Secrets Galore I would not think will be 12-1 at post time. Not sure what to expect from this one. Washed off the turf in debut at Ellis, then sent to KY downs, shipped to woodbine and now south Florida. 36 initial work on her page is a positive. Previous races makes the 5 furlongs look a bit to sharp….
Likely will not have a wager on this race of any type other than using my A’s alone in Multi’s. Hard to separate my A’s here but will make my top selection 1 Accomplished Girl
Race 8 – 1 1/8 on Turf –
1 (C) Mondego – I do not have much to go on with this one other than stats. Clement 16% but when you narrow that to only races longer 10F or more 0 for 11…
2 (B) Fayette Spirit makes his 3rd start for Brown who comes in 30% in this scenario. Nothing eye catching in either start but the experience will come in handy going extra distance today.
3 (C) Composer’s Dream for Maker who is 17% in this scenario. On debut he did not get much attention at the windows and now adds blinkers. Not having seen enough to toss would would like to have a bit of coverage in multi’s.
4 (B) Baby Billy in his 5th start is trying a few new things today which is plenty of reason to include. 1st Turf / gets LX / takes the blinkers off / 2 turns
5 (A) Coast Along comes out of a nice debut where he stalked on rail, when asked off turn he stayed on well chasing 1-2 finishers who never came back. Won the gallop out. Barn is 16% in this spot.
6 (A) For the Chief is odd one… Has been facing FL breds and has showed spurts of talent. The extra 16th of a mile could be the key, Oct 30th effort he did his best work late stretch. His last race is a bit of a head scratcher, he was rated well off the pace early on, off turn he was 7/8 lengths back under a ride and just plodding along. Then last 16th took off coming quickly at the wire, unfortunately he was out of view for part the race and difficult to tell exactly what was going on there.
7 Winger does try the turf for the first time today, but this barn typically makes this move searching for a sign of life. I’ll pass
8 (B) Bel Ami comes out of the same race as the 2, and I prefer this one slightly of the two. On debut he broke a bit awkward then just ran around the track on the rail, thought he galloped out a touch better than the Brown runner.
9 Curlins Incharge
10 Mufrih – on debut took no money for Pletcher?? Big negative and had no excuse showing little.
11 (A) King d’Oro will be the favorite and can make a case to single this one. His last was a bit green in the stretch finishing with good energy then galloped out up to the winner. Irad takes over today and will be a very short price. This one has always been solid work horse and should be my top pick but just seems always to underperform.
12 (C) Regimental will be a big price. Started things off at KY Downs which tells me the barn must have thought this one had some talent, then followed it up with a start at Churchhill on the dirt with NO TURF course available. If I spread on any tickets this one will be included
Top Pick 6 For The Chief Alternate – 11 – King D’ Oro
Race 12 – 5 Furlong on the Grass (Split Race from Race 6 could be some signal into how these perform)
1 (C) Sickle Dance for Kelsey has those 36 works consistently which I like if she can get of the gate quick enough on rail possible she could trip out here. Sale Work – she looks like a big filly that makes me question if she is quick enough here, the short video is not much to go on but gave me the impression 2 turns will be more suited for her.
2 (C) Astrila – Mott is 2 for 15 with this type. Her debut was going long when there was opportunity to sprint at Saratoga, comes back here not being seen since August. Nothing current on clocker report. OLD NOTE – AUG/Sept I have this as getting outworked by 3 different 2 year olds at that time, None have yet to break their maiden. On positive side has recent fast gate work and gets the barns go to jock…
3 (A) Daddyslilbosslady showed some talent on debut saving ground tipping out off turn 5/6L Back, steadily made up ground while hung on left lead. Would have been much closer to winner if had changed leads on cue. OLDWORKNOTE – I have this was working back in July at Saratoga, slightly outworked Ziaerati who won on debut at AQ on Jan 15th.
4 (C) Golden Star is a bit interesting making her first start for Jeff Hiles. The November debut at Hawthorne she had a good trip and ran really well, looking loaded off turn and chased a Wesley Ward runner who was not coming back that day. If you toss the route race and come into today with just that lone sprint on the form is she 15-1?
5 Cora’s Choice
7 My Sweet Affair goes out for Weaver who is 1 for 26 in this scenario, I am ok waiting on this one.
8 (B) 20-1 ML Olympic Artist went off at 11-1 in her debut and had Jose in the saddle. Race is a complete toss after being outpaced out of the gate, running up between horses for a share of the lead then entering turn completely checked out losing 5/6 lengths. Just came home after losing all chance at that point. OLDWORKNOTE – Jan 2nd had a sharp gate work going into that debut.
9 (B) Miss Uproar had a nice run on the Tapeta in Sept at 83-1 getting clipped for 2nd late, has the look Lasix could benefit this one.
10 (A) Calabrian Queen debut was ok but she had room late and was all out same pace behind horses, she did gallop out nicely. Casse is 22% in this scenario and gets Irad today. Will be a deserving favorite but not a horse I could back off of that debut.
11 Famosa showed nothing on debut but Junior was working this one prior and had consistently been putting in good efforts. Tries the turf today for a good barn, would be willing to include this one on deeper tickets. Alvarado has been working this one prior to debut and did not ride on debut, nor does he today.
12 (A) Just a Care should contend for favoritism here. Not seen since debut in June where she ducked out a bit at the start stalked pace under strong hold while 3W nearly entire race, and just was flat late after looking loaded late turn. Has the look Lasix will be a big benefit today. Crazy Stat – 2nd Time Turf SPT MSW 3 for 8 in the last 5 years. Could be a tough post.
Despite the Post 12 Just A Care will be top selection here Alternate 3 Daddyslilbosslady Multi’s I will be using Just A’s primarily, but if you ended up narrow in other legs, I generally will mark horses as a C just on unknown information alone. If I was looking to use just 1 horse outside of my 3 A’s, the 8 at a huge price would be the one I want on my tickets.