I made the right decision on Friday’s card, I think I wagered a total of $25 on the entire card as I had no opinions worth backing.
TODAY !!!
With several jockeys at Tampa Irad could have a huge day here of course. But horses you like with lesser known jockeys could provide extra value.
Warning I have not proof read this and if you read my blog regularly, well you already know my brain goes faster than my fingers on occasion.
Early Pick 5 – I rarely Play cave man tickets. 99% of the time I would skip race 1 and play a pick 4 starting in race 2. But playing this one as I think could see some prices early
R1 – 1,2,4,5,6
R2 – 5
R3 – 6
R4 – 4,5,7,9,11,12
R5 – ALL
Race 1 starts out the day with a rough group of maidens to work through.
A – 2 Sand Wedge has done little in 2 starts, I had expected a bit more from her last time after having a couple decent works coming prior. Drops down again to day looking for friends. Barn is 36% in this spot.
A – 4 Sofster changes barn and ships to Gulfstream, not sure what to do with this one. But if the Dec. 23rd race from Tampa would best anything these have accomplished at this point.
A – 5 Jazzin had the blinkers taken off on Dec. 24th and ran a much improved race going long on the tapeta. Next out added lasix and did not run horrible for the level. Now first off the claim and will get back to dirt sprinting for the first time with lasix and NO blinkers….
A – 6 Cajun Anthem likely will be the favorite because of Irad, but will need the addition of lasix to move her forward. She can win here but not deserving of favoritism.
B – 1 My Sarasota Queen I do not think is out of the question in this spot, she took a significant step forward last time with adding lasix. Now goes 2nd off the bench and back to dirt.
Race 2 I will single here and move on but will look at some verticals.
A – 5 Oscar’s World is well deserving of favoritism and a single in this spot. Nothing hidden on the paper form both effort he ran well simply just being 2nd best. Has continued to work well since his last start working with Hammerstein on Jan 26th was slightly 2nd best but held his own.
B – 2 Fly Erik Fly for Casse was improving with each work coming into his debut that washed off the grass. Stretches out while getting to preferred surface.
B – 3 Yankee Drummer took no money on debut. Was severely outpaced early then made a 5 wide early move responding well, was carried out 7 paths then leveled off in the stretch.
B – 10 Galicia’s Spirit showed speed on debut but was completely empty at the 8th pole. Prior to debut was working very well. The negative is Vasquez elected for the 3 and not only did he ride on debut but works this one regularly as well.
Work Note 4 Ramesses workmate Regalito runs in the 6th.
Possible Trifecta Play. I will only be using the 5 on top here, but will have a reverse using the 1 and 4 in 2nd for a smaller amount.
5
2,3,10
1,2,3,4,10
Daily Double – 5 into 6 ( Not a super strong opinion in Race 3 so will not be too heavy )
Race 3 I am likely gonna do something silly in this spot having a lone A but not overly confident.
A – 6 Rezasrolex in 4 starts has 2 wins and 2 seconds. Dec. 7th race had an easy lead when going gate to wire but finished strong that day and was claimed. Took a big step forward by my figures next out when getting lasix and running for the barn. Irad not riding back is a negative from a handicapping stand point but a positive on the value side of things.
B – 1 Private Thoughts will stretch out and try the tapeta for the first time for a red hot Spatz barn. Adds blinkers and lasix today. Lots of positives and reasons to move forward.
B – 4 Northshore Drive can win here and anyone who wants to use this horse as an A I would not fault them. Trying tapeta for the first time, gets lasix and Irad. But will be extremely over bet in this spot. I think I am tossing completely and if he beats me than so be it.
B – 5 Brawn won on debut going this distance and surface, then ran well in the ArmedForces. Takes the blinkers back off after failing that experiment and gets lasix. The big negative here is that he was a vet scratch on Dec 17th and has yet to run back.
Race 4 – Can make a case for the favorite here for sure, but I would like to have the best proven at distance and surface as well.
A – 7 Designated Hitter is the best of out of the common race of this group but by a narrow margin. Saved ground while waiting, then tipped out and stayed on same pace in lane trying to the wire. Adds blinkers today and 2nd time around 2 turns.
A – 9 Kuwait Towers comes out of the same race as the 7, really had no excuse not getting by the 7 last time late while grinding away same pace. I prefer the 7 but not much separate’s the two.
A – 11 Modern Lane looks to be another unproven favorite with Irad, but at least this time I have a reason to include besides the Irad factor. Since debut has changed barns with a steady work tab, Jan 7th worked on the tapeta with Gilded Age was slightly 2nd best but hung with older more accomplished mate.
B – 5 No Match Charlie is interesting and looks to be a huge price here. Looked decent in couple dirt works I watched giving me no reason to toss. O’Dwyer 1st timers/ MD Claim/ Routes/ Tapeta only 2 for 4.
B – 12 Torrefactor is one I do not have any information on.
C – 4 Federal Highway stretches out for the first time. Was badly outworked by My Sarasota Queen who runs in race 1, if that one runs well would give a slight bump.
Race 5 I will look to spread as they are going 1 1/8th on the tapeta. With a lack of pace and the fact most have never been over 1 1/6th left this one a bit cloudy to me. Hate the fact this race is the 5th because I need the ALL Button.
A – 4 Veloce will be a price but is super consistent and has ran well at the distance on the turf. In a race that I do not see any clarity if you forced me to bet a horse I will take the consistency.
A – 5 Officer County went off at 22-1 last time and outran those odds by a mile but I am not sure where that came from. Does have a win at the distance on the grass, but was versus lessor and had an easy lead that day.
A – 8 Sand Dancer plodded along last time picking up some tired horses, now 2nd off the bench maybe shows a bit more spark. Has faced much tougher for the majority of career and could out last these but defnitely.
B – 1 Restored Order will be loose in here it appears while having only 1 try on the tapeta prior will have to prove he can get the distance and handle the surface.
B – 7 Infamous Covert goes 1st off the claim for Drexler who has heated up recently. Definitely will have to improve off the claim as the Woodbine races this one comes out of are slow.
C – Everyone else.
Race 6 First leg of the Tropical Turf Pick 3
R6 6
R9 4,7 Will press the 4 , 7 for a larger increment, then will have 2 lower cost tickets using the 5 and 6 separately.
R11 10
A – 6 Mythic Performance 3rd time out for Lynch, Ran well on debut with no excuse but tried thru the wire, then really liked the last where went stride for stride with the winner entire turn then dug in for the stretch run trying through wire just bested late. Dec 13th was slightly 2nd best to Hammerstein just like barn mate Oscar’s World who runs in the 2nd. I have more confidence in the Oscar’s World as a single but this one will be a better price with some take out reducers in this race.
B – 1 Cptbobsbtwentynine the most interesting thing to me about this one is the name, what the hell is that? Irad rode on debut way back in August, comes back here gelded and trying new things.
B – 3 Pet Mat ran a nice race 2nd out behind a talented group finishing well. Then nothing went right last out, bit rank while hung extremely wide the entire time.
B – 5 Rapture Bay improved last out when getting lasix for the first time, had no excuse but did nothing wrong.
B – 10 Themanupfront has plenty of experience and ran well in both tapeta tries digging in both times finishing well after setting the pace. The turf could help this one carry that speed.
C – 4 Omaha Eight is the only other I would want to include if spreading.
Possible Tri – really like to scratch one of these out or fade the Pletcher runner here for value. Without some scratch help I will not attack this one like Race 2
6
1,3,5,10
1,3,5,10
Race 7
A – 2 Trevess 55 starts and rarely does not show up. I do think he is a bit better going 5 furlongs, looks to save ground and tip out here. Deserving of favoritism in this spot
A – 5 Love Paradox is 2 for 2 and I was on both starts, but this seems to be asking a lot. I would think a straight N3L would be in the book but she if she runs back her last she does fit here.
A – 6 Big Band Luzziann goes out for new barn and gets Irad up. Looks to get a good trip outside, I do not see how I could bet her at a short price. Her best tapeta sprints have came in slower pace races where she is allowed to hang around close to the lead.
3 Heir to the Roar goes out 2nd off the break after having a troubled trip last out. I think she will take some money here based off that trip but will pass, I like her at 5 furlongs but not in this spot going 5.5.
Late Pick 4 and 5 are No Go’s for me today.
Race 8 is really interesting and the fact that I have something to mention on nearly everyone of them almost assures the favorite will win.
A – 8 Secret Crush for Pletcher and Irad. Solid works going out well in every work I watched. Best Expressman once, and held well with 1st out winner Refuel. One of the questions I had about today is why Irad is not at Tampa? Did a horse keep him here or the riding title?
A – 10 Hunt Ball is a 1/2 to Cody’s Wish and Endorsed. Ran well on debut behind Risk It, then stretched out to run behind Drum Roll Please followed by Sierra Leone.
A – 13 Bonus Move needs to draw into this field and good chance he does. Has plenty of speed to clear from this outside post depending what some of the first time starters can do.
Now the not so obvious.
B – 1 It’s My Life has solid works showing good speed , worked heads up with Victory Avenue who ran 2nd on debut. Barn is 26% in this spot and this mare has produced solid runners.
B – 2 Beeline is one of two runners for Riley, of the 2 this is the one I would want to use. By Bee Jersey who has produced some precocious runners and the lone sibling out of this mare won on debut.
Quick Bee Jersey Story – Bee Jersey only lost 1 race in the United States and that was when we beat him at Churchill with a $15,000 claimer Gold Ekati
B – 6 Proprietary Trade Crazy stat line here. Chad 1st Timers / Dirt / Sprinting/MSW 20% at Gulfstream the last 5 years 37% !!! I have no workout information on this one.
Others that are a bit interesting
C – 11 Tommy Two Socks has nice series of works and Yates is 18% in this spot, with Vazquez 22%
C – 12 Navesink Pirate is 1 of 2 in here for this barn that is a whopping 32% with first timers / Dirt / Sprinting/ MSW’s those were mostly at Monmouth and going 4.5 furlongs but obviously barn can get one ready to go. I prefer this one over the 3
Race 9 will be fun to watch, not sure how good of a betting race is but they will be rolling here. Anyone who wanted to use the ALL button in this spot I would not blame them as it get be chaotic. I can’t choose between my A’s here both are super nice.
A – 4 Panther Island is one of my favorites. He has always been talented but does have some issues. His last was outstanding when he ran much better than I expected him too and I just sit back with my hands in my pockets and did not bet a dime!!! He had to make himself a bit room and split horses much the best, which after that performance he is the horse to beat in what looks to be a very competitive race.
A – 7 Carotari goes 2nd out off an extended break here. He is 10 for 24 lifetime and rarely does not run his race. Has outside post in a small sprint field, if the inside runners get tangled up he will already by moving on the outside.
B – 5 Hope in Him is very fast and not to be ignored, up until last week he held the 5F tapeta track record. Limited tries on the grass and bit surprised to see him in here. 30-1 would be a great price , I would think 15-1 is even fair odds. This will be a big ask but he has some wheels.
B – 6 Eamonn has less horses to circle in here than last time when he ran well closing outside, if others falter has enough class to take advantage of a brutal pace. 2nd off the bench and training well.
Race 10 Most of these have recently clear condition from the 3NL ranks but I do not like the favorite so I likely will be spreading in this one.
A – 1 Fast Fixer has enough speed to clear from the inside IF can break well. Ran a nice race last time from the 12 post but no one really showed a lot of speed inside of him. His best races have came at 5 furlongs but was in the Barboza barn at the time.
A – 4 Exchange day is 7 for 37 lifetime which is a clear advantage on paper and ran the fastest race of career last time when going out for Dibona off the claim with Irad. BUT !!! 0 for 6 going 5 furlongs and I have to credit the last race from the barn change otherwise were did that come from?
A – 7 Jets Wings came off bench last time to get the lead and finish nicely going 5.5 furlongs but was versus N3L company. Has speed and the outside post, I will land on this one as my top pick but not overly confident.
B – 2 Sarawat has some decent tapeta races way back in the form, recently changed barns. My main concern here is the 5 furlongs will be too sharp will need to find some early gears to not lose touch with the field.
B – 3 Breakthrough obviously has some issues only making 3 starts in 2023 and 2 of them were horrid performances. Only has a couple races on synthetic surfaces and did not show much. But I have to respect those turf races at Monmouth those were very fast and has plenty of back class.
C’s would be everyone else and yes even the 8 Tiz a Prince.
Race 11 early in today’s card has many horses out of races these won, so could get a little bit of upgrade or downgrade to some of these depending on how you view things.
I think there are some talented young horses in this group and I will be leaving off a handful that would not surprise me here.
A – 10 In a Jam I have to make a lone A in this spot. Once he stretch out to a route, he nearly beat Beyond Stoked that I am fairly high on, then one next out beating out some talented runners. The post is a bit of concern, but if Irad can save a bit of ground I think he will be tough to beat here.
B – 1 Trikari was a big price when breaking his maiden, I was not supporting him that day. I was thinking that was a “let’s get a race in” then I was going to wait until this one got to the turf. Stood in the box and did not swing!
B – 5 Runnin Rocket stretches out and gets lasix. Has been working great on the turf since shipping south and Lynch is on fire.
That’s all I am using here although there are several in this race that I think have some upside.
Race 12 I need some scratch help here for ticket construction as I am deep in several legs of this late pick 5.
A – 2 Hari is lightly raced for Nicks who does not send out a lot of horses, but spots everything well. Does move up versus winners for the first time today after breaking his maiden full of energy at wire going by late on the left lead with jock having a hand full of horse.
A – 3 Little Steven will be sent for the lead here and has proven he will get brave on the front end.
A – 6 Media Sensation is 1 for 24 and I have bet this horse a handful of times with always the same result. The definition of insanity ….. yep that is me
B – 4 No Regard could win here but if he does you likely will be asleep with this rest of the field watching him plod along.
B – 7 Truth and Honesty drops in class but simply has been slow would have to catch another gear today.
Other 5 Tiz the Coast was one I am not completely sure I want to toss. Last time was buried in traffic and I am assuming Tyler knew he had no horse under him but it was a lackluster effort on Tyler’s part.
