Friday was one of those days, that I was right yet wrong at the same time. Only ticket I cashed all day was a place wager in the 2nd on my price horse, Prolly got a little too cute tossing the Saffie runner but win some / lose some.
UPDATED W SCRATCHES
Saturday Weather – There is a chance of rain last time I looked, but South Florida that can change in an instant.
Race 1 – OH Boy the weekend is here, and race 1 at Gulfstream is a complete dart throwing contest. The ones with experience did not show much which makes the first timers that I have no information on a bit scary.
A – 2 On the Dot ran poorly on the dirt in here last but will like this surface much better. Oct 22nd effort she sit off pace 3W ranged up off turn, reeled in her target then the winner literally galloped by her. Drops in for a tag for today for the first time.
A – 3 Vayesta takes a slight step up in class, she produced solid speed in her last effort although ridden hard to do so, but still finished well.
A – 9 Smart Jenny makes her 3rd start here, barn is 0 for a lot 3rd time out sprinting. Gets on the tapeta for the first time. Any upside in this group is appealing to me.
A – 10 Cajun Dove debut came back in August and was nearly as good as any of the experience runners in here. I would make her my top pick off that alone, but recent work on Dec 29th turned me off a bit.
B are the Unknown, With 5 A’s I want to use both B’s almost as A’s and just try to survive.
4 – Lady Monique I have NO WORKS
6 – Freeway Fame same NOTHING NADA…
Race 2 goes 1 Mile on the Turf assuming no weather YET…. Have a couple in here coming out of a fast race that was won by Beyond Stoked and the obvious horses look to be the way to go
A – 2 Oscar’s World went off at 14-1 on debut running extremely well. He was 3/4W nearly the entire race, dove inside stretch leveling out a bit late. Lynch is 10% in this spot
A – 8 In A Jam for Casse took his 7th start to see a route of ground in his last, set some salty fractious and finished well just loosing at wire. Not sure how this one does not go off as favorite but I have seen some odd favorites the last couple weeks.
A – 9 Hearted , Third start for Pletcher with Irad so will take money. Pletcher is 21% in this spot and increases to 26% at Gulfstream. The Oct 25th race traveled 3/4W closed into a crawling pace, just bested late.
B – 1 Ocala Rocket takes the blinkers off which maybe helps this one finish. I bet this horse on debut in Sept when narrowly defeated by Agate Road, so I definitely expected more in that last try.
C – 4 Four Top 2nd Start for Brown 30% with Tyler , I do not think this one goes off at the 12-1 ML….
Note on the 5 Got Sunny , barn is not good 1st time Turf Route so I will pass today, But I did like a series of turf works I watched for this one.
Race 3
A – 2 Flakes stands out to me in this one, and I think she is a bit better going 7 furlongs, one small concern is she went to ringing her tail late in the last where she was all but stopping late. Not super confident but enough I will put most of my money in the early Pick 5 through her.
B – 5 Four Dawn is a bit puzzling and looks to be the speed, according to the clocker report she has had to very good works over the surface without blinkers? but not taking them off here today.
Other – 6 Starship Nala I cannot pick over Flakes but I think she is better then her 15-1 ML, takes the blinkers back off after a 4 race experiment. She is 0 for 13 at the distance but has some sneaky good races although they were long ago.
Race 4 has some horses that look a bit sneaky and have a lack of information
A – 5 Valued Cajun makes his 3rd start for Yates who is 2 for 17 in this spot and 53% ITM. Debut ran a decent 2nd to Cardinale who gave Change of Command all he wanted yesterday in the 7th, then followed that up showing good speed getting to lead in hand setting solid fraction before tiring late going 6.5 Furlongs. Repeat of the last someone is going to have to come get him here.
A – 8 Far From A Star ran solid on debut and goes 2nd out for Saffie, 29% put Zayas on that goes to 38% 2ndout/Dirt/Spt/MD’s. I got a bit over confident yesterday in the 2nd and let them beat me with a 2nd time starter, although I nailed the rest of the field including including my top pick running 2nd at 8-1. It meant nothing in the end…… Cost myself some change there.
B – 3 Etendre really has to be used as an A in here based off lack of information. Barn is 23% with MSW 1st out Dirt Sprinting, does not run many in the MD Claiming ranks. Only shows 2 works on paper including that initial 36.8 work. Was slightly best from the gate over FujiFire recently who has yet to make it in the starting gate after being Vet Scratched twice now….
These 2 are a bit interesting if choose to spread here
C – 2 Paisan is in for the tag which is a bit of a negative, Lasix, Blinkers , Gelded Lots of changes and Dec 18th work looked fit and ready to go.
C – 4 White Series is a wildcard, everyone will see Irad on here. Barn Change , Blinkers Negatives even after barn switch , worked this one on the turf once kinda hints they were searching for something thats not there and maybe thats because they did not like the way he was working on the dirt.
Race 5 of course we have to throw a 6250 open claimer in here. Hopefully the I have my bases covered here, as I always proceed with caution on these low level open claimers.
A – 2 Joe Di Baggio if shows up with his best stuff he is the most likely winner, problem is he always don’t show up
A – 6 Pure Speight was claimed for 12,500 last out and immediately drop to 6250, sometimes a red flag but barn has this moved successfully in the past. Irad gets the call, figures to take money
A – 8 Ragtime Blues has ran poorly in last 4 starts and now drops to lowest level of career. Will need improve 2nd off the bench here off a poor comeback attempt.
Early Pick 5, I am going to lean on Flakes in the 3rd with not a ton of confidence. Strong plays have been hard for me to dial in on the last 2 weeks and nothing early today Patience…..
Suggested Play
Race 11 – I will be looking at an Exacta 10 over 3
COLD Pick 3 – after scratches, I want to gain value where I prefer Ozara over Life’s an Audible
R9 – 4 Ozara
R10 – 2 Valiant Force
R11 – 10 Agate Road
Turf P3
R7 – A – 3,9,10,12
R9 – A – 4, 12 B – 6
R11 – A – 10 B – 3
Championship Meet ROI – Amount Wagered – $5091 Return – $7312 – ROI 43.63% hard fall from the first 2 weeks of 150%
Stats for Just the Early Pick 5 Races on Blog
Not all races had a top Pick – Top Pick Winner 25 for 75
A Selection Winner – 59 of 90
Races I completely WIFFED 17 of 90
