BIG DAY !! Early Pick 5 could produce a big number with some deep races then the card shifts to short prices late. I will look at win bets and double’s late in the card.
WILL UPDATE with Post scratches – Looking for some scratch help in some spots.
Race 1 starts off what is a tough Early Pick 5 I will look to be narrow here early if possible as many will spread.
A – 11 Typhoon Fury I played last time when he chased SET who is in Race 3. He ran well that day ultimately was no match. Jan 13th had bit of a trip although the PP’s comments do no reflect such.
A – 16 Coinvest is the obvious favorite that likely will not draw into the field. And of course he draws in, which I did not expect.
Others that are obvious 3, 4, 5, 10
Race 2 If I decide to make any type of win bet in this race odds would dictate my selection between the 2 and 7.
A – 2 Possiblemente moves back to the tapeta today where I think his best race to date was ran on. Jan 21st going the 9 furlongs he closed into a moderate pace while wide sealing the deal and now faces tougher. Should be a decent price for a barn winning at 24% for the year.
A – 3 Spirit Animal is the deserving favorite after his last 2 efforts. Jan 28th race was an absolute loaded tapeta race and then followed that up last time with another solid effort. I just find it hard to take a short price in these handicap tapeta races.
A – 5 FLY THE W !! If you love this game you have to be rooting for Fly The W, he is what drives the claiming game. 10K spent and rewarded with 9 wins , 1 2nd, and 7 3rds in 17 starts.
A – 7 Sand Dancer does not have a big turn of foot but has grinded out 3 wins in a row over this surface and 1 of them going 9 furlongs. If others tire he will be outside grinding away. Big class jump
Race 3 I do agree with the heavy ML favorite but I think there are plenty of reason to look at some price horses in here as well.
A – 9 Set was impressive on debut clearing early and when time powered away then geared down being much the best. Unfortunately from a betting standpoint today, the horses in here that have showed enough speed to pressure this favorite likely will not do so with the jockeys they have. Most likely will gate to wire here again today. Set is my top pick but not the horse I want to bet.
B – 6 Ari’s Magic romped on debut at Tampa but on the dirt of course then did not run a step on Feb 3rd. Clement worked him on the turf couple times and here we are.
B – 7 Massif needs some pace to run into in a race that looks void of such, but maybe someone surprises me and sends. I do not think I have bet on a single Brittany Russell horse this entire meet and running out of time to do so sounds like a great reason to throw away a C-Note…. Massif made 6 starts as a 2 year old running into a few nice horses while closing into slow paces, Horse could have won his last 2 races if not hung on left lead. Comes back at 3 hopefully improved , I did like the work with Rough Draft who recently won. I will take a swing.
Others , I have had enough of Tok Tok and Double Your Money then you have the 1, 2, 3 all trying something new that could beat me here. But in a touch early Pick 5 I will ride the single in this spot but I also will find a way to get some action on these 2 horses at massive prices.
Race 4
A – 1 Rotterdam is couple lengths from being a 3 for 3 on the turf. Comes out of the Sea Cottage race which I have strong on my figures where he was closing best of the group but had a fast pace to close into. Would be my top pick if not for the VET SCR on March 10th which leads to one of the changes I wish our game could make is some more information on vet scratches.
A – 4 O Captain has showed plenty of talent for Delgado but only has 1 win to show for it. Tried the grass for the first time last out had some trouble not reflecting in the running line, he was covered / blocked through the turn and when turned for home waited , checked then moved outside late and just hand ridden to the wire never asked for his best. This was not enough to make him a strong play but most definitely did not see his best.
A – 8 Fredo has plenty of speed and has ran very consistent when beaten by some classy horses as of late. I found no excuse in his 4 starts this meet but has finished strong every time and is a must use for me.
A – 12 Sir London had no excuse last time when saving ground and the leader drifted out off the turn leaving the rail WIDE OPEN! but could not finish. Now 2nd off the bench and 2nd time gelding has reasons to improve.
B – Just a Photo and Read On, I think both are a step behind the horses I have listed as A’s. Then factoring in Paco and Irad on them I cannot take horses I consider as B’s and underlay’s.
Race 5 is one of the most wide open dirt maiden specials I have seen of the meet, so now that I put that out there Pletcher and Irad will likely romp.
A – 3 Troublemeister will be a price and I like his chances. Has showed good speed just hanging late in both dirt tries and just maybe the blinkers coming off does the trick. Has worked well the last 60 days getting the best of Stuck In Malibu a couple times who has won 2 in a row as of late. If he was drawn outside would be my top selection but unfortunately the post could be an issue with plenty of speed drawn outside of him.
A – 6 Mindframe for Pletcher with Irad up, of course this combination has great stats. Work wise this colt has done nothing wrong but I seen nothing that makes me want to run to the windows.
A – 7 Pouce De Leon makes his 3 year old debut after running 2 quick sprints at Ellis last Summer. Danner is an amazing 45% the last 5 years with 3rd time starts in dirt sprint MSW’s.
A – 9 One Sharp Cookie’s best race came back in November when he nearly went wire to wire being caught late by Real Macho. Had a short break before returning to catch a drying out race track that was a bit sticky then last time was caught late once again over a sloppy track. Gets back to a fast dry track with Lasix and Blinkers this time. Will narrowly be my top pick in here.
B – 2 Assertor making his second start and moves to the main track. Debuting on the turf is a bit of question mark but unless you have a strong opinion elsewhere hard to leave this one off tickets.
B – 4 Six Kings is unfortunately 1 of 2 1st timers in here with No works to be viewed. Walsh is 13% in this spot and 2 for 15 going 7 furlong with 1st timers in MSW the last 5 years.
B – 5 Valued Cajun at a huge price, if spreading I see no reason not to include. Has ran respectable in all 4 tries and this colt has worked well all winter long.
B – 10 Idoneo for Mott is 15% in this spot. Sadly there is no works to view or info on the clocker report. But we expect people to bet on this race?
Race 6
A – 8 Starting Over is your most likely winner in here and with Zayas up and the presence of the 2 we might actually get the 5/2 or more. Since the move to Maker the only bad race is when he caught the yielding turf at Woodbine and ran to an Nation’s Pride that day. Last time was better than a neck the best and 2 back ran 2nd to Francesco Clement who matched the track record that day.
I now scratch into Tawny Port which I am not crazy about, but I will trust the process.
B – 6 Tawny Point will need to turn the tables on Starting Over and I myself cannot come up with a reason for him to pull that off.
C – 3 and 4 which are the other two Makers, going 12 furlongs on the grass best pay attention to anything Maker enters. I would prefer Street Ready of the pair if I was forced to only include 1.
Other – 2 Kertez will be a toss for me, this same stat comes into play later today as well. Clement with 1st time US runners moving to his barn the last 5 years 1 for 15. 0 for 2 in stakes company.
Race 7 is the lone stakes race that I do not particularly like on the card, these are nice horses but no one that stands out. Any multi race wagers involving this one I will be spreading.
A – 1 Lure him in moves to Saffie so you would expect a move forward from what already is a nice resume. I do wonder why this horse was moved from the previous trainer who decided to move this horse to the dirt and immediately rewarded the owners with 2 nice wins and a strong 2nd.
A – 3 Il Miracolo can win here but he is once paced and unimpressive to me.
A – 5 Tumbarumba had his day in the Fred Hooper, I will use in multi’s but at a short price I cannot back him with a win wager.
A – 6 Steal Sunshine is a horse I continually bet on the wrong day. The short stretch going 8.5 furlongs hurts his chances a bit.
A – 8 Donegal Forever would be a B if I had a strong opinion on anyone in this race. He was impressive on debut at Belmont but the last I am not sure what to do with that race, my numbers came back slow although it came an absolute monsoon that day so the figure does not hold solid value. Looks as if he will need to take a significant step forward. Prior to his last effort was working with Kingsbarns and since then came back to work on Feb 3rd when unable to keep up with Crupi who was under an all out drive to pull clear fo this one.
Race 8
A – 6 Joyful Lass finally got to the turf last time and did not disappoint setting quick fractions responding well when asked finishing strong. I was a bit surprised when she settled so nicely on the lead last time prior works she was basically running away with the exercise rider that was sitting back in the irons. I take that as a step forward and will be surprised if I get the 8-1 ML as she is my top selection.
A – 7 Ozara I will use as an A, but….. her 2 stakes wins came with perfect trips then last time she got the same perfect trip once again and when asked to finish was flat. I will use her but not one I am too excited to bet.
A – 9 Pharoah’s Wine’s Sweetish Chant effort I believe is better than paper suggest. She hit the gate then was rated back last early, got hung wide and carried out in the middle of track but finished well in center of track which you need watch the head on to see this as I wish someone would break the ZOOM button on the GP camera.
B – 4 Vive Veuve had a near perfect trip last time when breaking her maiden and most definitely will need to move forward off that effort. Her works before the maiden breaker compared to the 1 turf work I watched after it appears she may take that forward step.
Race 9
A – 6 Oscar Eclipse has not ran since September but I think Lynch has him ready to go. He has been impressive in all 4 of her dirt starts and by my numbers its a big gap to 2nd with a couple of off form exception horses that would need to recapture prior form.
B – 5 Shaq Diesel has got me a couple times winning in ugly fashion, he does not change leads but still finds ways to get the job done grinding away.
C – 1 Vivir Con Alegria I will not get the 12-1 I got last time when I played this horse settling for 2nd and the exacta. The negative today is he has drawn the rail but still a chance he could clear from the rail but unless the 4 Legacy Isle scratches I doubt that happens.
C – 3 Long Range Toddy!! He was my 2019 Derby Bomb that flopped and one the horses that has run races capable of beating this group but has to have things go just right.
Late Pick 5 I dug and dug trying to find something but it just appears chalky to me.
Race 10 according to Equibase R Calli Kim is an early scratch in a race that lacks pace, so now this one looks a bit wide open. I would not mind having at least 1 tickets with the ALL button.
A – 4 Surprisingly did have a near perfect trip on Pegasus day but she finished strong and galloped out huge. That was her first race since August and for first for Pletcher so has reasons to move forward. The 12 furlongs is the question.
A – 5 Viva La Red likely will get no respect again today after going off at 100+ odds last time and running a hell of race. Paco gets aboard and with no pace he could be sitting close or on the lead.
A – 6 McKulick looks now as if she will be the over bet favorite. She has continually been up against it trying to close into slow paces but unfortunately that appears the case again today. Too Short a price and vulnerable.
A – 8 Anatolian ran well on Pegasus day although being no match for Alpha Bella or R Calli Kim that day. Then in The THE Very One she finished well reeling in her target in the lane but then was no match for R Calli Kim once again. Well …. R Calli Kim is not running, 12 furlongs on the grass = MAKER all day and should get a fair price.
B – 1 La Mehana will likely be over bet in here as well for Clement. The last 5 years Clement is 1 for 15 with Foreign shippers making their first start in the US for Clement. 0 for 2 in stakes races…… Clement may beat me here and in Race 6, if so I am fine with that. I view both runners as takeout reducers. The workout report would have to show something big to sway my opinion.
Other – I am curious to see if the 2 Tower Bridge takes any money off that ULTRA IMPRESSIVE RUN comment line. Hate to be critical of the chart caller but what is so impressive about beating an optional 25K group at Turfway, loosing an easy lead then running by tired horses to regain the lead and win. Gets on the turf for the first time, but will need to take a massive step forward. Her Dam was 0 for 1 on the grass and 3 siblings were a combined 2 for 10 on the grass…….. No Thanks
Race 11 The return of Ways and Means – I likely will just be playing this race in the horizontals unless there are some scratches.
A – 4 Ways and Means I most definitely want on my tickets. A WOW debut, then in the Spinaway she clipped heels very early and still ran very well.
A – 6 Gun Song is the safer play and will my top selection. She is 2 for 4 and most definitely stepped forward with the addition of blinkers on Jan 11th when she chased Leslie’s rose just coming up short then followed that up on Feb 9th with an impressive victory where Johnny V basically flagged her in the lane not ever asking for her best. She has plenty of speed to keep pace with Fiona’s Magic who was tiring last time going a mile.
Underneath / Others
B – 5 Into Champagne had no excuse last time when she failed to get by Fiona’s Magic, if you are spreading I could definitely make a case to include. Myself will be looking at her more as possible runner up.
Fiona’s Magic I may use in the 2nd slot but most definitely in 3rd if I decide to attack this race vertically.
Race 12 I thought drew up fairly weak, which I know this is not a graded stakes but just not much to get excited about it here.
A – 8 Marketsegmentation is the obvious horse. There is not a ton of pace in here and if they let this mare hang close to the pace this group does not have a chance. She is 5 for 8 and the class of the field, they layoff does not bother me here. Only negative is the short price.
B – 1 Candy Light is a bit interesting making her 3rd start since moving to Saffie’s barn, she ran extremely well last time although did save every step and not sure how much horse Tyler had when he got hung behind traffic.
Race 13 I am just using 2 horses in here.
A – 4 Big Everest comes in here 8 for 15 off a November effort that I though was his best to date. Just sit behind the pace and when they reached the gap drove by confidently. Has never ran at Gulfstream and most of his races have came over turf courses that have a bit of give to them even though listed as firm.
A – 5 Never Surprised came back off a 2 year layoff to nearly set a track record when getting nailed at the wire by Quality G. This is one of the more interesting jockey moves I have seen in awhile, Irad has won 2 in a row on Quality G but changes mounts.
Underneath
3 Ice Chocolat ran better than I anticipated last time and likely will do so again here as he is very consistent. I will look to use him underneath.
6 Quality G finally impressed me last time and now Irad jumps ship? I thought he tripped out Jan 6th and has never ran without lasix.
7 Lucky Score and 11 Churchtown would be horses I would use in 3rd to round out the trifecta
Race 14 – This big one that everyone has talked about so no need to go into big deep dive. I have nothing clever that has not already been said.
A – 9 Conquest Warrior will be my pick here although I am not 100% convinced what he has in the tank. Is he the carefully handled beast that is going to win the Derby? The Jan 13th race was impressive then last time going the 9 furlongs he never was asked for much. So the question remains when asked for his best is he going to plod along or is he a race horse?
A – 10 Will the real Fierceness please stand up! You cannot simply ignore the Breeders Cup performance but also cannot ignore the last. I wish he was not in the race so I could approach this from a vertical stand point. I know its a Derby prep and will have all the hype but I am looking for an opportunity to make money unfortunately the Fierceness question marks keeps me from attacking this race.
Underneath Horses
1 Frankie’s Empire showed some toughness last time being under an all out drive entering the turn and stayed on chasing to the wire.
4 Grand Mo the First similar to Frankie impressed me last time being ridden early but hard trying all the way to the wire.
7 Catalytic looks as if he is begging for more ground but he has some issues as he was a vet scratch Dec 9th and did not get back to the races until the March race at Tampa.
8 Seminole Chief has speed and I look for him to hang around for 3rd.
Trifecta – If I play this I am undecided, but possibly would look to build this same tri with Fierceness on top. But if Fierceness for some reason was to come out of this race then I would be pressing this play a bit more.
9
1,4,10
1,4,7,8,10
