All statistics unless stated other wise are situation specific. Example Last 5 years 1st Time Starter /MSW / Turf / Route = %
Any mention of Figures refers to my personal figures unless stated otherwise.
Expect typos and grammar errors! Time is of the essence and I do not even have the budget for intern around here.
Please feel free to leave Comments or reach out to me on Twitter (@c_cupples) with any questions and/or suggestions.
I will be covering the Early Pick 5 in detail, and quick thoughts on rest of card.
You can find John Pinder’s work on the late Pick 5 under the Gulfstream Park menu as well here at Inthemoneypodcast.com
Very Brief today – Life outside of horse racing has made for a busy week and ongoing into the weekend.
Post scratches will update with Spot plays on later races as I do have a few today.
Early Pick 5 I may take a host singling my price horse in the 5th but ultimately I am more interested in the Pick 3 starting at Race 2.
R1 – 1 2 6 8
R2 – 4
R3 – 2 6 8 9 11
R4 – 3 8
R5 – ALL ( Shot with the 1)
Turf Pick 3
R6 – 6
R8 – 2 8 12
R10 – A – 6 B -ALL others
Race 1 has me shortening up a bit looking to the Pick 3 and Pick 4 starting in Race 2 as nearly everyone of these runners has tapeta sprints that fit.
A LINE – If I was playing an Early pick 5 I would look to squeeze by with these 4.
1 Rough Draft can win with the right trip having on the one tapeta sprint on his resume going 5.5 furlongs now tries 5 furlongs which looks to be outpaced early.
2 Grimes gets back to the tapeta where his best has came previously but is the poor form from barn change or recent surfaces?
6 Neophyte last race was dreadful when making his first start for Saffie but he was rated back early then got shuffled in behind horses. Looking for an outside stalking trip today.
8 Courageous Cooper drops down to open 10K claimers after facing a bit toucher for the past year. Seems to have lost his early speed that he had early on in his career. When a experienced 5 year old suddenly has a monster work I usually do not pay it much attention but the Jan 5th work looked very nice.
Race 2 – Is where my early multi race play will be with Doubles and a Pick 3.
LONE A – 4 He’s a Beast is the one I am going to come back to in here and possible single if wanted to take a shot. Big works prior to debut where he ran respectable. Barn is 32% in this spot and 2ndST/Dirt/SPT/MSW going 7 furlongs 4 for 16.
B LINE
2 Caracas is another Lynch 3 year old that has been schooled by Owen Almighty in the last few months. Like recent MSW winners for this barn Solid Left and Jimmy’s Dailys he was second best to Owen Almighty but hung in there and also similar work with Donut God recently. Lynch is 11% 2ndSt/MSW/Dirt/SPT – but 0 for 14 when going the 7 furlongs.
8 Sorcerer’s Silver makes his debut for the hottest barn on the ground and rarely do you see Irad riding for Dale. Very impressive in two different works I watched and will be no surprise if wins based off that alone BUT!!
The Past 5 years 1stStart/Dirt/MSW/Sprints – 9% of those runners 24 of them were going 7 furlongs with ZERO WINNERS…
Race 3 is tough with several coming out of common race on Jan 11th. If including 1 runner from that race not sure how you can not use 5 of them so I am looking for new faces.
A LINE The scratch of Amazin Queen opens this race up as I cannot trust 11 Smart Spending.
10 Amazin Queen drops 50% in claiming price while moving to the tapeta where she has succeeded in the past. Her last 2 efforts over this surface Feb / March of 2024 is better than any in here has done previously. Saez picks up the mount while getting off the winner of the Jan 11th common race that completely tripped out that day.
11 Smart Spending comes with a bit of caution as last race came Nov 30th with a big effort circling the field while drawing away. Vet scratch Jan 11th not sure of reason…. maybe this is enough to just single the 10 and move on.
( Would have to use all the B’s as well after the scratch of my top pick ) B LINE – 2 6 8 9
Race 4 – Nothing clever as none of these fillies have overly impressed me.
A LINE
3 Ramsey Pond is the one I will take a shot with although not an overwhelming strong opinion. I liked the last 2 efforts where she finished well just simply out run late. Hoping Zayas puts her on the lead
8 Vixen is suppose to win this race but after being hung wide in the Juvenile Fillies. Nothing wrong with her races she just does not finish, maybe her 1 paced effort will be good enough today.
Race 5 I could see using every runner in here but the 10…
TOP PICK
1 Global Prosperity made a big step forward with the addition of Lasix last time running 3rd to Souper Times(Runs later today) and I was surprised they entered a turf race after a couple works over the tapeta that were WOW works. Now gets the surface that caught by attention prior, with so many unknowns in this race I cannot get to overboard on this colt. But I will have a few dollars on this one.
Race 6
6 Then will take on winners for the first time today after two solid turf efforts last summer for Mott missed a few months but came back with wow! The maiden breaker was one of the best performance of the meet over the tapeta older horses included, after waiting in traffic with Junior got the colt clear he absolutely exploded through the wire. Huge ask today facing older more accomplished foes.
Race 7 I wanted to mention although is likely a race I will not be investing in.
3 Souper Times made my watchlist after the debut which was impressive although that was on the grass and now shows up on the dirt which I did not expect. Maybe testing water on a derby dream? I will watch with interest but keep my money in my pocket.
Race 8
2 L’Antharis went off favored last time and never had a chance at any point turning for home. Tried to get outside but was stuck inside behind horses then taken up late but everyone seen this trip so likely will be a short price but I am all aboard.
R10 I have nothing clever as Test Score is the most likely winner and I think you need to single there or use them all.
R11 No strong opinion here I will use several.
R12 – The 7 and 9 are the obvious two but do not leave out ..
3 Justinqueso If you read my stuff then you know I have been saying for couple month that Ian Wilkes has an unusual amount of 2 now 3 year old that are nice and this barn is setup to have a big year. I tipped and bet this runner on debut off works I had watched from back in June and yes I did get a bit lucky with the DQ but she still ran well and should improve off that effort.
[…] Gulfstream Park Saturday FEB 1st By Chris Cupples […]