All statistics unless stated other wise are situation specific. Example Last 5 years 1st Time Starter /MSW / Turf / Route = %
Any mention of Figures refers to my personal figures unless stated otherwise.
Expect typos and grammar errors! Time is of the essence and I do not even have the budget for intern around here.
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I will be covering the Early Pick 5 in detail, and quick thoughts on rest of card.
You can find John Pinder’s work on the late Pick 5 under the Gulfstream Park menu as well here at Inthemoneypodcast.com
Pegasus Day – I crushed early and could not have been more wrong late if I tried.. I was in position in the Pegasus Contest, played my opinions on the 2 final races that were simply bad takes..
Early P5 I want to lean on my opinions in the races with form and get coverage in both of these maiden claimers.
Not exactly the type of sequence I like to play – Caveman type ticket is not really my preference. Maybe lean on horses early taking money, but I also look to play my opinion not the publics.
R1 – 1 6 8 10
R2 – 1 2 3 5 6 10
R3 – 9 10
R4 – 1 3 5 6 78
R5 – 7
Turf P3
R8 – 6
R10 – 3 5 6 9 15
R11 – 1 3 5
Race 1 – I do not have a big opinion to lean on in here and see several with reasons to win so will mention almost all of them.
A LINE – I have 4 A’s and not eager to bet any of them.
1 Light Forever I believe would need to trip out and draws inside so its possible. Looked like a winner last time before being nailed on the wire but I do not think that was a very good group.
6 Otter Mischief is interesting with Tyler sticking around after a trouble trip on tapeta last time being rank early between horses and boxed in, once had room ran on well. A big one paced type that may be good enough for a mediocre field. The Dec 6th effort was not horrible leaving the biggest question is what moved this horse up last time? The Lasix or the Tapeta?
8 Sugar Buzz will be over bet but the logical horse that often leaves me wondering if I am over thinking it. Faced a touch tougher last time and looked like a winner until the last jumps but what I do not like is he had the entire stretch to get up and needed every inch only to be nailed at wire. If was to run back to the Sept. race at Woodbine then clearly beat this group.. IF ANDS BUTS…
10 Quizler I give a slight edge to having the best turf route of the field by my numbers. Post is not ideal and that edge is a very slim one.
B LINE
2 Bolt to Run was working very well last year in New York prior to debut but that did not translate to Race Day. The last was better than appears on paper when he ran on well in the lane showing some interest.
7 Fighting Words looked loaded Dec. 15th until really asked to run and lost his action. (Feet were going everywhere like the crazy inflatable tube man), Then came back with a nice race on the tapeta. Zito not really in the claiming game but dipped in for this one and now takes the blinkers off.
11 Midnight Boss ran decent last time but comes out of the same slow race I am not very high on. Ran on decent will being put pinned on the rail and galloped out decent for the level.
Others that would not shock me.
3 Gunnery Sergeant – Nothing positive to spin on this runner but if spreading is one I suppose you would want to include.
4 Royces Ride was not overly ridden on debut and would need improve by leaps and bounds. I did not like anything about this one on debut when he burned a ton of money. Comes out of the same group as Light Forever that is not very good.
Race 2 is the first of two maiden 12,500 races in the early pick 5 with this one going 7 furlongs on the dirt. Suggest checking the early Double pools before Race 1 looking for any signal pointing us in the right direction, but even then hard to have confidence on any of these runners. I made it a whole 24 hours without having to look at a low level maiden claimer.
A LINE – There is just not much to go on with this group. Wish I had some help to provide here but bad group of low level maidens
1 Blazing Hot showed enough talent to be claimed out his debut and then did complete the 7 furlong distance. See there are positives every where we look! Tapeta did not go so well, so back to the dirt with the addition of lasix today. If this runner was drawn outside I would consider leaning on this one a bit.
2 Truinvirato showed some ability in a work on Jan. 4th broke a bit slow but looked good once he got into stride chasing a quality horse.
3 Wineman Tax I would use, Not seen the works but clocker report does not have this one as awful…. So yea, there is that.
5 Romero did not look too bad working on the dirt before debut and barn is 20% in this spot.
6 Renege has racing experience and routed on the tapeta on three occasions so should be fit. Moves to the dirt for the first time.
10 Issaac Leo is the lone big class dropper in the race for Casse. Has not done much running but did try MSW company a couple times.
B LINE – 7 8 9
Race 3 – Finally a spot we can save a little ground.
A LINE – This one sure looks like a two horse race
9 Mywifeknowsitall finally turned the table on Heir to the Roar last time finishing strong which has been her downfall previously which obviously makes her a contender again today.
10 Heir to the Roar would still be my pick if forced to chose one. Mare has kept her tapeta form a long time but does get in traffic or hung wide occasionally.
B – 1 Warda is interesting from the rail, if she gets loose and able to save all the ground she has a enough talent to finish.
Race 4 is the second of the maiden claimers but is a bit easier but has some angles on some possible prices.
A LINE I am using several and even then would not be shocked if a horse with zero form jumps up to win.
1 Sharpazano will try the tapeta the first time for Nolan Ramsey, drops down another level as well.
3 Frosty Shop I will use as an A after nearly breaking through last time but I do fear the 5 furlongs is too sharp for him. He was working hard chasing another runner I like a bit and eventually got to his target before being nailed by the winner. The Nov. 9th effort was decent as well but had to work hard to keep pace that day as well.
5 Big Amadeus changes barn to Barboza who immediately swaps this runner to the tapeta.
6 Seeking to Collect will benefit from the cut back at what looks to be a big price. If that last was going 5 furlongs he would have been a winner because the others were hard ridden early trying to catch him.
7 Leo Fong improved when the blinkers came off during the summer of last year. Went off at a huge price last time while off an extended break. Was pinched at break a dozen back or more, Drayden just sit and chilled.. He never even asked this horse to run until the 1/4 pole and made up a ton of ground. Likely does not deserve to be on the A line, but these 12,500 maiden have burned me too many times.
8 Insanity it Seems I had no interest in last time when he disappointed at a short price. I am no fan of claiming off Ward but this is a very high percentage barn that is successful in the claiming game so maybe this race is simple and this is the winner. I am not trusting.
Race 5 is a useful group of 10K claimers that have run solid races but I am leaning on the favorite and the horse to beat.
7 Swan Lake has rattled off 3 wins in a row, Irad sticks around after the barn change, and has speed. The only other speed in the race is drawn outside of him which is not ideal but I will still plant my flag here.
Will post some Spot play and Turf P3 before first post below.
If you are a subscriber of the Free ITM Newsletter then check your Email. Myself and Mike Pribozie record an Mandatory Payout Pick 6 Show early this morning.
Pick 6 Ticket – I am taking a shot today.
R6 – 9 B – 7
R7 – 4 6 7 8
R8 – 6
R9 – 1 4 6 7
R10 – 3 5 6 9 12 15 (Leaving some horses out here that will take money)
R11 – 1 2 3 5 8 9 10
Race 8 – 6 Anybody But You will face winners for the first time after a solid debut. I bet her that day and will again today as her works prior to debut were eye catching.
Race 10 – If you listened to the show of the Mandatory Pick 6 – Full Disclosure I clicked over to my notes and POOF!! they were gone and the undo button completely failed me with the spinning circle of death… then I was totally deer in the headlights.. But as I mentioned I am all over the place in this race.
I think you want as many as possible in this spot and I was against many of the horses that are going to take money while finding reasons to include horses that are going to be big prices.
A LINE
3 Esperon is the inside speed and does have a win over the turf but was DQ’ed. Has been run down by Reef Runner a couple times who is not in here today and I am not so keen on some of these favorites.
9 Banneker has only went the 5 furlongs on turf once prior Feb 7th that also had Esperon. Solid effort that day in a salty group and he also was an off the turf scratch a few times signaling he is better on the grass. Current connections claimed him took the blinkers off, put them, took them back off .. Suddenly this horse woke up Competition is much tougher today but I found him intersting.
15 High Limit Room was drawn in the 12 gate last time and nearly got the job done versus a solid group.
Oddly I just liked the proven local horses better.
B LINE
5 Speed Figures is quick but show me versus winners.
6 Born Flashy for Wilkes barn that keeps sending out horses that are firing.
12 Omaha City is as hit and miss as it gets but he can produce nice races over the turf course.
The rest have reasons as well
8 Jefe De Obra is Ward/Johnny V but what the excuse last time?
4 Asher’s Edge ran huge last time but beat no one but will only be his second turf try.
10 Heymackit’sjack ran well over this course for Kimmel in 2023 and WAS very quick, but where has his speed went?
11 Red State – Its Maker/Saez. Where have you been ? facing older for the first time.
Race 11 – 5 Olivia Valentina will get a moderate win bet from me today. She went off at 69-1 on debut having a good trip and showed some ability once got going.
