Race 1: #3 Resolution (3-1)
I like the progression this filly has shown this year. She has gradually improved her speed figures in each of her last four races, and any slight improvement today would make her the one to beat. She was outclassed and against the race flow last time so I’m willing to ignore the result, especially since the figure was solid. Now she plummets in class and should find herself chasing an honest pace.
Race 2: #1 Sterling Luck (3-1)
Even though this filly is technically rising in class from $50k maiden claimers to maiden special weights, those races at Churchill Downs are much tougher than the field she’s up against today. And she actually ran quite well in that most recent start, closing into a modest pace while wide and just coming up short. She was well clear of the third place finisher that day and she now switches to the cozy inside slot. Should be enough speed to keep the pace honest, she’s the one to fear late.
Race 3: #7 Lone Return (7/2)
It’s now or never for this four year old gelding out of Risk and Return. He exits a trio of turf races that would make him extremely tough to beat. Two back he was against the race flow and still ran on late to finish a respectable fourth. Then last time he was stretched out to two turns and nearly took that field all the way. Both of those figures would win this race comfortably, and now he drops in class to face maiden claimers. Toss in the weight break and I’d be ecstatic to bet this guy at anywhere near 7/2.
Race 4: #6 Tap N Twine (5-1)
#6 Tap N Twine seems as good as any in this spot. The veteran mare is in top form for Chris Ryan and I love the versatility she’s shown in her recent races. She’s comfortably drawn towards the outside and should appreciate the seven pound weight break.
Race 5: #7 Frankel Baby (5-1)
The fifth race of the day kicks off the late pick 5 that features a carryover. Top pick to kick of the sequence is #7 Frankel Baby to be the speed of the speed from the outside post. This filly has yet to win on the grass, but two of the races came against much tougher foes in Kentucky. Last time she faced similar company here at Hawthorne and finished a respectable third. The two horses that finished in front of her came from dead last, so this was a classic case of winning the battle, but losing the war. She now cuts back half a panel and should prove tough to catch if she’s able to replicate that performance.
Race 6: #7 Lucy Jane (4-1)
The sixth race kicks off the late pick 4 that also features a carryover (must have been some bombers on Sunday)! Tough read here with not a lot of speed entered and unproven dirt form. While #7 Lucy Jane has questions of her own to answer, speed and dirt aren’t one of them. Her most recent race came off a long layoff and was really bad. Now she plummets from $30k to $5k claimers. Not exactly a sign of confidence, but she still has races in her past that make her the one to beat. I’d tread carefully here, but she is worth a gamble if we can get near the 4-1 offered on the morning line.
Race 7: #1 Vote No (5-1)
#1 Vote No finally makes his return to the grass and I’m hoping that can make all the difference for this three year old. Both his grass races as a juvenile were super so I’m surprised it took so long for them to try it again. He broke his maiden at Kentucky Downs over a next out winner, then went to Keeneland and ran a very respectable third in a graded stakes despite a wide journey. The waters get tougher today as he faces open company, but if he’s improved at all from two to three then I see no reason he can’t be competitive at a square price.
Race 8: #5 Tiz a Country Girl (6/5)
This mare will be a popular single in multi-race wagers and for good reason. She’s in good form for Catalano, continuously just missing against much tougher foes. She’s returning to the dirt where she’s had most of her success, and continues to work quickly in the mornings. She possesses plenty of speed to remain prominent throughout and can pass rivals in the stretch. Logical single in an otherwise tough sequence.
Race 9: #3 Mining Camp (7/2)
Has the light bulb finally turned on?! At long last #3 Mining Camp got the job done in career start number 22 and returns in a logical spot to make it two in a row. Races at this low level are often won by recent maiden winners and he’s consistently earned speed figures that are fast enough to win at this level. He’s another that’s got enough speed to be prominent throughout, but he’s no need-the-lead type. He does lose the win rider, but there’s nothing wrong with getting in light.
Pick 5 Carryover Ticket
5: 1,7
6: 4,5,7
7: 1,3,5
8: 5
9: 3,4,7,8
$36
