You can reach me on “X” @hkravets and/or email at hkravetshorse@gmail.com….. Post time is 3:10pm EST. Good luck, and CRUSH YOUR BETS! With rain yesterday, I’m assuming all races will be OFF the grass. Analysis is based on grass races switched to dirt. New post of 3:10pm EST on Thursdays as Hawthorne switches to a Thursday / Sunday schedule, no Saturday racing.
Race 1: 1 – 6 – 3
#1 Silky Warrior (1-1) will be the heavy favorite, and rightfully so. She’s coming off a solid win vs. most of these and should sit a great, ground-saving trip. A repeat effort is highly likely..and she likes to win, is 7/29 lifetime.
Race 2: 5 – 3 – 4
Early Pick 4 Ticket: 3,4,5 / 2,8 / 1,2,4,5 / 4,6,7 ($36) (assumes races OFF TURF)
Horses with horrible running lines in their previous race can sometimes become overlays (underbet) and therefore value. Don’t know if that’ll happen with #5 Ironman Richie (2-1), but if you toss out the last race, which had a very fast pace, he’s very formidable. Don’t like the 2/22 record, but do like his early speed in a race lacking much early gas.
Race 3: 8 – 2 – 5
Main track only entrant #8 Path to Success (3-1) might just live up to his name in this spot. The early pace figures to be lively (depending on who decides to stay on dirt) and he is a dirt horse through and through. Needs the right trip and pace, but I think will get both.
Race 4: 5 – 1 – 2
Hard to trust anyone in this Ill-bred maiden affair; I’m hoping the rail horse gets some pace pressure early, otherwise, she might be gone. Blinkers added for #5 Come On Lady (3-1), who I hope will be a bit closer. Like the jockey change to Cohen, who’s hitting at 23% for the meet.
Race 5: 4 – 6 – 7
#4 Deal’em and Weep (5-2) faced her stablemate (#6) last time and lost to her…hoping the same thing does not happen again. There’s enough dirt pedigree to believe she’ll handle it, especially if Trainer Block leaves her in the race. The #7 Ernestina is a fascinating newcomer to the field…can she get two turns?
Race 6: 4 – 2 – 1
Late Pick 4 Ticket: 4 / 1,3,4,8 / 4,7 / 2,7,9 ($12)
Babies going 4 ½ at Hawthorne means one thing: look out for a Rivelli runner. He’s got two in here, but I much prefer #4 Arrivedercci (8-5), who should love up to her name and say “goodbye, until we meet again” to the rest of the field. She’s by the awfully-fast Good Bye Greg, who Rivelli trained, out of a turf sprinting mare Case Cracker. A clean break should be all the filly needs…and how about the bullet 46 and change work. Yikes.
Race 7: 8 – 4 – 1
#8 Calisue (6-1) is a bit one-paced and “grindy” with her running style. But similar to an earlier race on the card, she’s a dirt horse while others might prefer turf. I’m hoping the #1 and #7 both stay in the race to create at least some early fractions that are reasonable, otherwise jockey Felix will need to be more aggressive from the outset.
Race 8: 7 – 4 – 1
I have a lot of respect for trainer Brittany Vanden Berg, who knows how to claim a horse and put them in the right spot. She has two horses in this race that fit the profile, but I prefer ML-favorite #7 Maqamat (2-1). He’s the class of the field and jockey Felix should be putting him in the game from the outset like he did two back. This is a weak field, and any improvement at all should send Maqamat to the Winner’s Circle.
Race 9: 2 – 7 – 9
With little dirt form to analyze, I’ll take a shot in the finale with the projected speed of the speed, #2 River Redemption (4-1). He’s 3/9 lifetime on fast dirt and has apprentice jockey Slevinsky who I hope will be instructed to send hard and attempt to wire the field.
