By William Humphrey ©
Race History
Run over six furlongs at Oaklawn Park and offering a purse of $250,000, the Whitmore Stakes is a Grade 3 event for horses aged four and over.
A race with a long history, the Whitmore Stakes was first run in February 1944 as the Hot Springs Purse and was won by Momo Flag, who went on to show his versatility on the track by winning the Exterminator Handicap over two miles and seventy yards, at Pimlico later that year.
The following year, in 1945, the race was altered to become a two-year-old restricted handicap, run over one mile and seventy yards and then, after two years without the race being run, the race conditions were changed again, restricting it to a three-year-olds only race, run over six furlongs. In 1948, the race was rescheduled to earlier in the season, thus making it a suitable prep race for the Arkansas Derby. Between 1948 and 1974, three horses completed this double. (Muckler’s John’s Chic in 1956, Swift Ruler, who also went on to Kentucky Derby success in 1965 and J. R.’s Pet in 1974). In this time span, five fillies also won the race, including Lori El in 1957, who would go on to finish third against the boys in the Arkansas Derby before winning the Kentucky Oaks.
After the creation of two, new three-year-old restricted races (the Rebel Stakes in 1961 and the Southwest Stakes in 1968), the conditions of the Hot Springs Handicap changed in 1978 and it became a race for horses aged four years old and over. In 1988, the race ceased being a handicap event and changed to being run as a stake with allowances. In 2022, the race earned Grade 3 status and was renamed the Whitmore Stakes, honoring the 2020 Breeders’ Cup Sprint Champion, who won four consecutive runnings of the Hot Springs Stakes, between 2017 and 2020.
Other notable winners of this race include 2014 Breeders’ Cup Sprint winner Work All Week and three-time GSW, C Z Rocket, who also finished runner up in both the 2020 and 2022 Breeders’ Cup Sprint.
Here, we will analyze some historical trends in order to guide us in the right direction of finding this year’s winner.
Key Trends Since 2014
- The first significant trend to note is the impact that low drawn horses have had, with eight of the last ten winners of the Whitmore Stakes being drawn in gates 1-4 and six of the ten were drawn in gates 1-2. This includes both of the last two winners, Bob’s Edge (2022) and Tejano Twist (2023), who both broke from the two hole.
- A forward running style has been the most profitable since 2014, with six of the last ten winners having been no further than two lengths off the lead throughout the entire race and seven of the last ten winners were within one and a half lengths by the 1/4 pole. However, the last three winners (C Z Rocket in 2021, Bob’s Edge in 2022 and Tejano Twist in 2023), were 6 lengths, 4 1/2 lengths and 7 lengths respectively, behind the leader turning for home. This shows us that, although forwardly placed runners have had the most success, one shouldn’t rule out closers.
- The bettors have had a good grip on the Whitmore Stakes lately and unfortunately, it’s been a fairly chalky race. Since 2014, all ten winners started as one of the top three betting choices, with seven of the last ten favorites having justified their odds. The average post time odds of the winning horses have been a very skinny 1.88/1 and the average odds for all thirty horses to have hit the board has only been 4.22/1 and so when looking for the winner, one should certainly focus on the top of the market.
- When looking at the profiles of the last ten winners, it’s noticeable that nine of the last ten winners had already recorded a victory at Oaklawn Park and all ten winners had won a stake prior to their Whitmore victory. In this year’s race, Surveillance and Cowan have both failed to win at Oaklawn before and Osbourne, Ninja Warrior and Cowan have all yet to win a stake.
- It’s also interesting to note that all ten of the most recent winners had recorded an Equibase Speed Figure of at least 109 in one of their three most recent starts. In this year’s renewal, this trend only applies to Tejano Twist, Ryvit and Jaxon Traveler.
- Looking at the winner’s prep races for the Whitmore Stakes, Whitmore himself, twice won this race off of a layoff (in 2018 and 2019), having run in the Breeders’ Cup Sprint on his most recent start. This preparation was successfully replicated by C Z Rocket in 2021, however this doesn’t apply to any runners this year. All four winners between 2014 and 2017 came into this race having won or placed in an allowance race, specifically at Oaklawn on their prior start, which is exactly what Ryvit and Ninja Warrior are doing this year. The other three winners (Whitmore in 2020, Bob’s Edge in 2022 and Tejano Twist in 2023) had all finished first or second in the King Cotton Stakes, prior to their Whitmore win. This is a significant positive for Tejano Twist, who finished second in this year’s King Cotton Stakes, which is exactly how he prepared for his success in this race, last year.
- Another significant trend is that seven of the last ten winners had run at Oaklawn last time out, with Whitmore I (2018 and 2019) and C Z Rocket (2021) being the exceptions. However, as previously mentioned, they both came into the race having made no start since the Breeders’ Cup but horses who made their start outside of Oaklawn, excluding Breeders’ Cup runners, are 0/17 in the last ten years. This can be seen as a significant negative for Surveillance, Jaxon Traveler and Cowan this year.
- Looking at trainer’s records in this race, there are a couple of stats that need highlighting. The first of which is trainer Ron Moquett’s extraordinary record. Admittedly skewed slightly by Whitmore’s four straight wins in this race, Moquett hold a 5-2-0 record from eight runs, having won with Gentlemen’s Bet in 2015, as well. Despite all five of his winners having started as favourite, Moquett also finished 2nd with Den’s Legacy at odds of 13/1 in 2016 and 4th with Firecrow in 2021, who started as the rank outsider at odds of 34/1, which increases Osbourne’s chances this year. Chris Hartman also holds a strong 1-1-2 record from his five starters however, Steve Asmussen could certainly do with a change of luck. Despite being one of the country’s leading conditioners, Asmussen’’s record in this race since 2014 is 0-1-0 from ten starters. This could raise significant doubt for supporters of Ryvit and Jaxon Traveler on Saturday.
- Of the jockeys riding in this year’s renewal of the Whitmore, Ramon Vasquez certainly holds the strongest from. With wins on both Gentlemen’s Bet (2015) and Subtle Indian (2016), Vasquez’s score stands at 2-2-1 since 2014.
Takeaways
- Focus on low drawn runners.
- Remember that forwardly placed runners have historically done best, however the last three winners all came from off of the pace.
- Focus on the betting market leaders and be wary of getting too creative.
- Be cautious of horses who made their last start outside of Oaklawn and those who are yet to win a stake.
- Focus on horses who have recorded an Equibase Speed Figure of 109+ in one of their last three starts. (Tejano Twist, Ryvit and Jaxon Traveler).
- Respect Ron Moquett and Chris Hartman’s runners and be aware of Steve Asmussen’s record in the Whitmore.
- Note, jockey Ramon Vasquez’s strong record.
Verdict: #2 Tejano Twist (9/5 ML)
- The King Cotton Stakes has produced three of the last four winners of this race (including Tejano Twist, last year) and having finished second in Oaklawn’s King Cotton last time out, Tejano Twist looks set for back-to-back, Whitmore wins. He’s drawn low in gate two, which has proven to be a strong positive recently and although he tends to come from off of the pace, he showed that to be no problem last year. His last three ESF’s have been 110, 111 and 107 and so he fits that trend and Hartman has a strong record in the Whitmore. He will almost certainly start as one of the top three betting choices and all of the trends seem to point in his direction.
