Longines Breeders’ Cup Distaff 

 

Ce Ce

 

Hard trying filly that has yet to display the ability to finish in her last 3 races. In the spring she was sitting the same types of trips early but was a closing machine. Before we turn the page on CeCe, let’s take a closer look. She has great early speed and the ability to say on and could be in that prime position of 3 lengths off. Only problem is that she will be facing one of the very best mares and an up and coming filly. that both run fractions with no off switch. Pass.

Dunbar Road

 

Late running filly that will need a lot of assistance from the racing fairies in order to have a chance in here. Pass

Harvest Moon

 

Three-year-old runner that has progressed nicely over her five career starts for trainer Simon Callaghan. The Graded stakes races she has been participating in were small in number of runners and not even close to the caliber of company that she will face in the BC Distaff, but Harvest Moon doesn’t know that! Her numbers are viable for a tote placing. – Use Underneath for Value

Harvey’s Lil Goil

 

Entered in Filly and Mare Turf

Horologist

 

Looking to find a comparable race to see how Horologist might stand up to the rigor of the BCDistaff, I focused in on the G1 LaTroienne Stakes. Monomoy Girl encountered a bit of trouble entering the first turn and she was taken back to fourth wide and Horologist got a rail position into the turn. After the turn they both sat equal distance 4 or 5 lengths off of the leader. Horologist got a unbothered ground saving run at the leaders, she was no match for the winner but secured 3 rd by a half-length. I would anticipate a similar finish.

Lady Kate

 

Ran a really good race to finish second in the G1 LaTroienne that Horologist and Monomoy Girl were in. That race was conducted at a mile and 1/16 compared to the Breeder’s Cup Distaff that will cover a mile and 1/8. With a similar speed projection, Lady Kate will find herself on the front end attempting to out run not only Monomoy Girl but also Swiss Skydiver for additional ½ furlong. Pass.

Monomoy Girl

 

All rise! The queen will now be discussed. Reverence is in order when you talk about Monomoy Girl. You may now be seated. 14 Starts 12 wins 2 second place finishes lifetime. 3 for 3 this year. With her ability to run upfront or from off the pace fast or slow its hard to find a reason NOT to play her for the win. She has also expertly campaigned in 2020, this to be her 4 start of the year with about a month and a half in between starts. The race still has to be run but apart from anything crazy I believe that she is a lock. Winner.

Ollie’s Candy

 

Should have beaten Valiance in her last race but an attempt to stay on the rail by the jockey cost her a placing. It cost her nothing else as she ran a heck of a race, other than additional purse money, a G1 win, lots of prestige – Okay I will lighten up on the sarcasm. All kidding aside she ran a really good 2 nd place race and showed good resolve and determination in the G1 Spinster. That determination is why I believe that she is a good key horse for 3 rd and 4th.

Point of Honor

 

Her running style is to drop back and make one run. Does not have the ability to close well enough to be considered against this group. Pass.

Swiss Skydiver

 

Made history by beating the boys in the Preakness stakes one month ago in dramatic fashion, holding off the Kentucky Derby winner Authentic, running neck and neck down the stretch, not allowing him to go by. A truly amazing win. Onto the Distaff. If anyone can take down Monomoy Girl, Swiss Skydiver has the ability to do it. As I look at Swiss Skydiver and her efforts this year it is truly amazing what she has done. That amazement also leads to wonder as I begin to wonder has all these graded stakes victories and taking on the boys and winning endurance testing races going to catch up with this three-year-old super filly. For the sake of my fan boy excitement and this upcoming 2 days of racing I sure hope it doesn’t happen in this race, but as I look to write my analysis of the races from all angles, the thought did cross my mind. Swiss Skydiver can run early and run late but I can’t see a scenario that Monomoy Girl can’t do just a little better. 2 nd place behind Monomoy Girl

Valiance

 

Primarily a turf runner until August when he remained in a race originally scheduled for the turf; won that race, achieving his best lifetime speed figure. Next Trainer Todd Pletcher takes this well-bred son of Tapit and wins the G1 Spinster, at a mile 1/8 th on the dirt, and when you have the hot hand why not continue to roll the dice. I am not mad at Pletcher and Eclipse Thoroughbred Partners for taking a shot but this would be a tall task. They have a great runner on their hands but she will not win this race, could get a placing.

Longines Breeders’ Cup Classic

 

Race Rundown:

Anticipation Almost Over. Not only is this race to be the highlight of the Breeders Cup weekend 2020, it is shaping up to be one that we look back on for years to come as one of the great showdowns that we have had in recent history.  Let’s go to work and come up with some good analysis of theoretically a very competitive race. 

Authentic

 

When I started to analyze this race weeks ago, I assumed that Authentic would not be the pre-race favorite.  Even in a competitive race with any 6 potential winners that Authentic, winner of the Kentucky Derby, beating Tiz the Law; same Authentic who only lost by a nose to super filly Swiss Skydiver would be the four or fifth on the morning line – WOW.  Just goes to show how talented this field of runners really are.   As we continue to look at Authentic, we know that he is a need the lead type and should he be allowed to get it based on his natural ability. If someone doesn’t but pressure on him early my estimation is that he takes the field gate to wire like he did in the Kentucky derby.  – Contender in a that scenario, unlikely but not impossible.

By My Standards

 

Is a grinder with some closing ability and should be used underneath in exotics to from exactas to Hi Five plays but has not shown the aptitude win in a spot like this.

Global Campaign

 

Trainer Stanley Hough has been campaigning this four-year-old colt in four different distances of races this year after a 11 month layoff.   Working his way back to the 8.5 to 10F distances, his best races come when he can make the lead and control from the front.  He won’t be able to accomplish that in this race. Pass.

Higher Power

 

Five-year-old son of Medaglia d’Oro will attempt the BC Classic for the second time.  Last year he was able to hit the board in 3rd place, 8 lengths behind Vino Rosso.  Hasn’t shown much improvement in his subsequent starts.  Pass.

Improbable

 

I am going to show my hand early with regards to my opinion of Improbable.  All horseplayers are trained to look for a reason to beat the favorite, right?  I am going to do that here.  Improbable is a probable winner for sure and if you want to say that you picked the Breeders’ Cup Classic winner in the year 2020, place a $2 win bet on him just in case.  Improbable has one three Grade 1 races back to back to back.  – Impressive right?  Not Quite.  In the G1 Gold Cup he beat a six-horse field including Higher Power.  In the G1 Whitney he beat a five-horse field including: By My Standard and Tom’s d’Etat (who missed the break completely).  In his last effort he did beat Maximum Security impressively BUT – The fractions for that race were really fast for the mile and 1/8th and he had no opposition when it came time to run them down as there were only 4 other horses in the race.  Pass. – And don’t call me a hater – I’m just doing my job 😊

Maximum Security

 

If this horse would have been named Maximum Scrutiny how foretelling that would have been.

One of the best four-year-olds that we have in training and without a doubt THE one that has had to prove the most.  Going back to the 2019 Derby disqualification then 2020 trainer scandal and now the talk of him being used up no longer the great horse that he once was.  So, what’s the story and what do we do with Maximum Security.  Maximum Security doesn’t do well with fast paces in the early stages of the race.  In his most recent defeat in the G1 Awesome Again same as with his lost to King for Day last year in the Pegasus Stakes, the opening and second quarters of those races were both above par pace. As well as his hard-fought victory in the G2 San Diego.  I do not think that Max is washed up I think he will face a group of very talented runners that in which he will have to attend to a lively pace a little more than he wants to.  Pass

Tacitus

 

Historically Tacitus was seen as a horse that was always knocking on the door and with just a little more distance, he would be able to excel.  After five attempts of at 10F and only one victory to show for it is time to relabel Tacitus as a horse that is always knocking at the door – end of sentence. Pass

Title Ready

 

Dallas Stewart trains this who doesn’t have impressive speed or pace figures.  It’s hard to find a case for him to win this race no two ways about it.  But Dallas Stewart has the uncanny ability to get his horses to run beyond their odds.    Play deep down in your exotics.

Tiz the Law

 

Looked like a sure-fire candidate for horse of the year after his run in the G1 Travers with a romping victory.  Before that he won the G1 Belmont easily by 3 lengths. Prior to that it was the G1 Florida Derby by 4 lengths. Now here we are after a second-place finish in the Kentucky Derby and we are asking questions as to what happened with Tiz the Law.  From a pace standpoint the race was no aberration from any of the other contest that he won earlier.  He just didn’t have enough to catch Authentic on that day. So, what type of pace will he face today in this race. Based upon his post position draw and the lack of speed to his immediate right or left  He should be able to sit a very good trip and have something left in the tank to finish.  He is very much a Contender.

Tom’s d’Etat

 

One of the wise-guy horses that will help to even out the odds across the board, and it is good reason. – He is legit. Only hiccup on his past performance was his last race when he missed the break in the G1 Whitney and still managed to finish a respectable 3rd; only beaten 2 length by the BC classic favorite Improbable.  Has the ability to stay within striking distance but his ace in the hole is his ability to finish strong.  The layoff is a slight pause for me but Tom’s is 7 now and has shown the ability to be ready to fire after a little bit of a refreshing.  – Contender for me.

Summary:  Not just because it’s one of my favorite ways to look at a race ,but I truly believe that pace will make this race; and the key to the pace will be the two runners who are starting from the 9 and 10 post positions.

Authentic will want the lead and I believe he will make it to the front very similar to the early running of the Derby, conversely I don’t think it will be conceded to him easily. That will liven up the pace, setting it up for a presser like Tiz or a closer like Tom.

Let’s make it happen!!!