By William Humphrey ©
It’s a relatively quiet weekend in the racing world, with the final round of Kentucky Derby preps and the Dubai World Cup meeting, just around the corner. However, there are still plenty of good wagering opportunities on Saturday and here are a few horses to keep an eye on…
Not many horses can claim to be a ten-time stakes winner but Michelle Lovell’s stable star, JUST MIGHT (6/5), is just that. Now aged eight, JUST MIGHT has had an incredible career, winning stakes races at ages four, five, six and seven, and accumulating $1.14m in purse money along the way. Having won twelve races and hit the board in thirty two of his fifty-one career starts, JUST MIGHT will go for gold again today in Fair Grounds’ fourth race, as he drops back into allowance company for the first time since November 2023. Surprisingly, JUST MIGHT has only won one of his sixteen starts in allowance races, despite having a record of 10-5-3 in his thirty starts in stakes races (go figure!). Nevertheless, he looks the clear standout in this race, with his best Equibase Speed Figure being eleven points clear of the next best, #6 CHARGING (7/2), who looks his main threat on paper.
Staying at the Fair Grounds for their eighth race, a MSW over one and one sixteenth miles on the main track, a couple of exciting horses will be looking to bag their first win. #1 GUN PARTY (5/2), goes out for Steve Asmussen and gets Edgar Morales aboard for the ride. A son of leading sire Curlin and out of G1 winning millionaire Carina Mia, GUN PARTY cost a cool $1.7m as a yearling purchase. Sent off at generous odds of 10/1 on debut, GUN PARTY ran second to subsequent G2 Gotham Stakes runner up Just a Touch, pulling over five lengths clear of the third-place finisher. That form and pedigree would typically make him look tough to beat in any maiden however, Saturday’s morning line favourite comes on the other end of the starting gate, in #9 CORNISHMAN (8/5). Owned and bred by Godolphin, CORNISHMAN is also by Curlin and out of GSW, Penwith. Having finished second on both of his starts to date, Brad Cox’s runner was last seen finishing second to Todd Pletcher’s Triple Crown nominee, Antiquarian. Antiquarian had previously finished second to the very promising Conquest Warrior, who was recently listed as the twelfth choice in the latest Kentucky Derby future wager pool and so that looks strong form. Both GUN PARTY and CORNISHMAN have the potential to be very smart individuals and it will be interesting to see who comes out on top today.
The highlight at Gulfstream is the Hutchenson Stakes, which goes as the third race however, race ten is equally as exciting. It features the return of #5 ARTHUR’S RIDE (7/2), a Tapit colt trained by Bill Mott. Out of MGSW Points of Grace, ARTHUR’S RIDE’s maiden form is as strong as it gets. On debut, he ran second at Saratoga to subsequent GSW Disarm, who was last seen finishing second to Arcangelo, in the G1 Travers Stakes. Behind ARTHUR’S RIDE in third, was two-time stakes winner Crupi, who was last seen running third in January’s G1 Pegasus World Cup. In fourth, was subsequent stakes winner Perform, in fifth was G3 Holy Bull winner Rocket Can and in sixth was two-time stakes winner Wadsworth, who was last seen finishing second in the $1m Gun Runner Stakes at Kentucky Downs. Talk about a maiden working out well! On his second start, ARTHUR’S RIDE finished second again, this time to subsequent G3 LeComte Stakes winner Instant Coffee and in fourth that day finished future G2 Remsen Stakes winner, Dubyuhnell. ARTHUR’S RIDE finally broke his maiden on his third start and this time, he beat Dreamlike, who went on to finish second behind Saudi Crown in the G1 PENNSYLVANIA DERBY. Having been nominated for the 2023 Triple Crown, one must wonder how he would have fared if he hadn’t suffered a setback, considering how well his maiden form has turned out. ARTHUR’S RIDE hasn’t been seen since that maiden victory, 399 days ago but he is back on Saturday and a strong work-tab suggests that he could return with a bang. His return will be worth a watch.
ARTHUR’S RIDE’s form coincidentally ties in with the tenth race at Oaklawn Park on Saturday, where the aforementioned #8 ROCKET CAN (9/5), will also be making his return to the track. Having been beaten in both of those exceptionally strong maidens that ARTHUR’s RIDE ran in, ROCKET CAN broke his maiden on a sloppy track at Churchill Downs, before capturing the G3 Holy Bull Stakes two starts later. A second-place finish behind Forte in the G2 Fountain of Youth and a fourth-place finish in the G1 Arkansas Derby preceded his respectable Kentucky Derby effort which saw him finish ninth. The son of Into Mischief hasn’t been seen since the first Saturday in May last year but returns to the track today for Bill Mott and Flavian Prat gets the leg up for the first time. He will face a strong challenge on Saturday from Steve Asmussen’s #6 HARLOCAP (4/1). Formerly trained by Bob Baffert, the son of Justify was switched to Asmussen’s barn in attempt to make the 2023 Kentucky Derby, following the suspension of Baffert from CDI owned facilities. Having failed to make the ‘Run for the Roses’, HARLOPCAP instead went to the Texas Derby, where he finished second before being put away for 222 days. He gained his second career win on his most recent start, cozily winning a competitive allowance at Oaklawn, 29 days ago. This won’t be the first time that HARLOCAP and ROCKET CAN have met, because the former finished eight and a half lengths in front of HARLOCAP, 350 days ago, in the 2023 Arkansas Derby. With the benefit of race fitness on his side, it will be interesting to see if the tables are turned on Saturday.
Over on the West Coast, race four is an intriguing MSW at Santa Anita that follows the Pasadena Stakes. As expected, Bob Baffert is strongly represented by #2 SHOW CARD (2/1), who gets Juan Hernandez aboard. Owned and bred by Juddmonte, SHOW CARD has twice been turned over as a short priced favourite but put in a much better effort last time behind two talented fillies. In front of her on debut, finished the re-opposing #4 MS BO J (5/2), who cost $350k as a two-year-old and on debut, had split the subsequent one-two finishers from the G3 Santa Ysabel Stakes, Kinza and Where’s My Ring. Both SHOW CARD and MS BO J, could face a serious challenge from first time starter, #6 QUICK BROWN FOX (9/5). Owned and bred by Spendthrift Farm LLC, Richard Mandella’s debutant has carries a very strong pedigree. By Triple Crown winner Justify, QUICK BROWN FOX is the first foal out of the former Bob Baffert trainee Bast, who managed to win three G1’s, one G2 and finish third in the 2019 Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Fillies, despite only making six career starts. Mandella has recorded a 29% strike rate with his seventeen first time starters in the past year and with Joel Rosario booked for the ride, she could make a splash on debut.
Good luck to everyone playing the races today!
