Journalism – 2025 Kentucky Derby Contender Profile & Analysis

By Eric DeCoster

Journalism has the opportunity to establish himself as more than a Kentucky Derby winner should he capture the roses on the First Saturday in May. A winner of four races in a row, he has emerged as the fastest horse of his generation, and a Derby victory would cement him as the sport’s next superstar. He has faced quality competition throughout his career and will enter the big race having accumulated 122.5 Kentucky Derby qualifying points. The odd number is due to the fact two of his prep races came in fields of 5 horses, in which case Churchill Downs lessened the available qualifying points for competitors. 

Racing Record and Notable Performances

After debuting in a 6 furlong sprint race last October, finishing a closing third, Journalism made a strong impression when winning a 1 mile maiden race at Del Mar. He showed a clear affinity for the added distance in that race, something he reaffirmed when taking the G2 Los Alamitos Futurity in his next start. In that win he beat Breeders’ Cup Juvenile runner-up, Gaming, and consistent graded stakes performer, Getaway Car, so the quality of the field was not lacking.

He didn’t come out of the Los Alamitos race 100%, as he developed a minor sickness that set him back from training a week or two. However, when he got back to business it was smooth sailing from there, setting him up for a big-time showdown with the highly touted Barnes in the G2 San Felipe. Sent off the second choice in wagering that day, he sat well within range of Barnes, who was setting the pace, before overtaking him down the stretch and winning by a comfortable 1 ¾ lengths. That effort resulted in a 108 Beyer Speed Figure, far and away the strongest number any horse from this crop has run in their careers. He was ready for his final prep start, the G1 Santa Anita Derby, but it was reasonable to believe he would regress off of such a lofty win last time out. In that April 5th prep, Journalism settled in the rear of the compact field before encountering trouble into the far turn, but maneuvered through the mess perfectly to run down Baeza in the stretch.

Pedigree and Connections

• Sire: Curlin
• Dam & Damsire: Mopotism (by Uncle Mo)
• Owner: Bridlewood Farm, Don Alberto Stable, Eclipse Thoroughbred Partners, Elayne Stables 5 LLC, LaPenta, Robert V., Magnier-Lessee, Mrs. John, Smith-Lessee, Derrick and Tabor-Lessee, Michael B.
• Trainer: Michael McCarthy
• Jockey: Umberto Rispoli

Journalism has the pedigree to thrive in Triple Crown races. He is by one of the elite sires of the past decade, Curlin, himself a Preakness winner and third place finisher in the 2007 Kentucky Derby. While Curlin hasn’t sired a Derby winner yet, two of his grandsons won the Kentucky Derby in back-to-back years – Rich Strike (by Keen Ice) in 2022 and Mage (by Good Magic) in 2023. Two sons of Curlin have run 2nd in the Kentucky Derby, Exaggerator in 2016 and the aforementioned Good Magic in 2018.

This colt is out of Mopotism, by Uncle Mo. Racing fans will likely remember Mopotism from her four years of Grade 1 level racing in the late 2010’s. She was a competitor in the 2017 Kentucky Oaks and would also go on to run in two Breeders’ Cup Distaffs. Nearly all of her races came around two turns, so there is certainly no stamina lacking on the dam side of this pedigree.

Michael McCarthy has emerged as one of the top trainers in South California over the past decade. He’s already had 19 Breeders’ Cup starters since 2018 and has won two of those events to this point. He will be running his second horse in the Derby this year, having sent out Endlessly to run 9th last year.

Umberto Rispoli will be riding in his third Kentucky Derby, but this is the first time he’ll come with a big chance as the previous mounts were both longshots. Rispoli was a top rider internationally, winning major races in Hong Kong and Japan over the years, but moved to California and was met with instant success. He is consistently among the top riders in the jockeys’ standings at Santa Anita and Del Mar, and wins at a strong rate when riding horses for Michael McCarthy.

Final Prep Analysis

• Final Prep Race: G1 Santa Anita Derby at Santa Anita (April 5th)
• Finish Position: 1st out of 5
• Final Time: 1:49.56
• Beyer Speed Figure: 102

The Santa Anita Derby was likely Journalism’s most impressive race yet. Despite regressing 6 points on the Beyer scale from his win in the San Felipe, how he composed himself and overcame adversity supercedes any numerical outcomes from this race. Breaking from the rail, Journalism settled in a pocket on the inside of rivals and traveled well up until the far turn. A speed horse in front of him backed up through the pack and caused Journalism to check sharply inside the half-mile pole. Even though this horse has a long, bounding stride, he was able to re-gather himself quickly and tilted outside of rivals for the stretch run. From that point it was all about catching Baeza on the lead, which he did to win by just less than a length.

Strengths and Concerns

Strengths: The biggest strength Journalism brings into the Kentucky Derby is his raw ability. He is a physically imposing horse who clearly knows what he’s doing, and when he races it is evident he knows his job is to win a horse race. The professionalism of this horse was evident when he overcome that trouble in the Santa Anita Derby. Journalism is also consistently the fastest horse on all metrics like Beyer Speed Figures and TimeForm US Pace Figures, among others. He’ll also have no problems with the Derby distance given his pedigree and physical makeup.

Concerns: There are very few concerns with Journalism heading into the Derby. The biggest knock will be the size of the fields he has faced. In four of his five races there have only been 5 starters, and even though he was able to overcome trouble in his most recent race, that would have been less doable in a larger field. While he can probably work out any trip he wants, the post position draw will still be pivotal to this horse, as he probably doesn’t want to be drawn inside where he is more likely to encounter trouble.

Expert Opinions and Odds

There is no doubt that Journalism will be the morning line and post time favorite in this year’s Kentucky Derby. He is universally regarded as the best horse in this crop and has been viewed as the Derby favorite since his San Felipe win in early March. The heaviest favorites in recent Derby’s have ranged from 5/2 to 3-1, and that is very likely where Journalism will end up come post time. In 2016, Nyquist was bet down to 2-1 when he won the Derby and it isn’t out of the ballpark that Journalism is viewed in that same light this year.

Conclusion

The expectation is that Journalism will win the Kentucky Derby. Anything else would be a massive disappointment to his connections, the bettors, the breeders, and his fans. A win could easily put him in the conversation of the next Triple Crown winner and one of the greatest horses of this decade.

Kentucky Derby Contender Profiles

Journalism – Sandman – Sovereignty – Burnham Square – Luxor Cafe – Tappan Street – Citizen Bull – Tiztastic – Coal Battle – Rodriguez – American Promise – Final Gambit – Grande – East Avenue – Publisher – Chunk of Gold – Owen Almighty – Flying Mohawk

For quick hitting info on all 2025 Kentucky Derby horses…

In the Money Kentucky Derby Top 10 + Other Contenders