Keeneland Fall 2019: jockeys and trainers

In advance of opening day at Keeneland, as per our ritual, I though it might be helpful to some to see some trainer and jockey angles for some of the race configurations typically run on the track. There are some hiddne nuggets in here, so enjoy and happy handicapping.

Notes: All stats are for the Keeneland Fall Meet (October) only. Data is sampled since 2017.

Be careful here as well. The data is just the data and there are some relatively small sample sizes on which it may not be the best idea to make decisions. That being said, spotting a trend before everyone else does is where you might be able to find some value.

Jockey and trainer stats

Trainers

All stats are since 2017, October only, for trainers with 10 or more mounts

Turf, two turns

Takeaways:

• Bill Mott 0/18 on two turn turf routes which is rather astounding. Horses of his have gone off at odds suggesting they should win 13% of the time, but they have not won since 2017
• Place to beat Chad? 3 winners from 19 starters with a 24 cent return on a dollar. I may take some chances to stand against him. Bear in mind these horses may be the lower end of his contingent given Breeders’ Cup is typically around the corner at this point (this is suggested especially by the 16% expected win percentage, which is far lower than his horses usually are).
• The standout here is probably Mike Maker who hits at almost 20% in these types and has a positive ROI.

Dirt, one turn

Standouts:

• Ben Colebrook – 7 for 28 with a very high ROI.
• Lukas – 0 for 16
• Steve Asmussen – 12 for 45 with a very high win percentage but relatively low Return.
• Stark contrast here with Maker being 7 for 33. However, still a negative return on a dollar investment.

Dirt, two turns

Highlights:

• Ian Wilkes is the standout here at 5 for 17, almost a 30% win rate and the only (relevant – Lukas winner must have been a massive price) positive ROI.
• Top six very sharp trainers underperform relative to their expected win percentages – be careful of underlays here.
• Overall, to me, this suggests you may not be able to rely on trainer angles for two turn dirt races.

Jockeys

Turf, two turns

Standouts:

• Joe Bravo (small sample) appears to outperform expectations by a lot. Have heard anecdotally that he is an underrated turf rider. Nothing here disputes that (though it doesn’t confirm given the small sample).
• Jose Ortiz has ridden a pretty significant number of races and underperforms on the win percentage relative to the expected win percentage. His ROI suggests that very short priced horses are winning, and likely that some very short priced horses are losing as well.
• Ricardo Santana, Jr. has only won 1 of 29 races. The ROI being as high as it is (and it’s pretty low) suggests that was a higher priced horse as well. Probably an unreliable jockey in these types.
• Only other one worth noting (and again small sample) is Javier Castellano – winning 4 of 12 (33%) – but still a slightly negative return. At least it beats the takeout.

Dirt, one turn

Observations:

• Ricardo Santana, Jr. here is 18 for 85 and hits at 21%. ROI just beats the track take. Might command some respect.
• Tyler Gaffalione is perhaps the standout in this type of race, hitting 25% of his races (7 for 28) and far exceeding the expected win percent his horses’ odds suggest.
• Top two stats on here are suspect. ROIs are deceiving given the short sample. Might suggest including in horizontal wagers in spread races.

Dirt, two turns

Eye catchers:

• Albin Jimenez numbers, like the previous chart, seem a little too good to be true. I would give the same advice as above: be wary of the numbers, but might deserve an extra look in horizontal wagers for races that you’re spreading.
• Ricardo Santana, Jr. seems to excel in these types, relative to the others we’ve taken a look at. The ROI and win percentage suggest that this is no joke.
• That being said, might want to give an extra look to Edgar Morales, and Chris Landeros. Pretty decent sample and high win percentage relative to the rest of the folks on the chart.