Keeneland will be a target for a lot of trainers this fall. What exactly do you do with all of those horses that are shipping from all over the country and end up in Lexington? Our hope is that this will help you. Even if this doesn’t point to winners, it may help in trimming down some of those spread races.
Numbers are for October only. Since 2017.
One turn dirt races
| LAST_RACED_TRACK | WINS | MOUNTS | WIN_PCT | EXPECTED_WINS | PAYOUT | IMPACT_VALUES | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| MNR | 3 | 14 | 21.43 | 7.37 | 13.4 | 2.91 | 0.96 |
| BEL | 4 | 20 | 20 | 21.57 | 7.6 | 0.93 | 0.38 |
| SAR | 12 | 69 | 17.39 | 19.99 | 35.8 | 0.87 | 0.52 |
| KEE | 13 | 87 | 14.94 | 14.56 | 29.7 | 1.03 | 0.34 |
| CBY | 4 | 27 | 14.81 | 9.87 | 28 | 1.5 | 1.04 |
| IND | 12 | 81 | 14.81 | 11.43 | 91.6 | 1.3 | 1.13 |
| AP | 6 | 44 | 13.64 | 10.84 | 31.4 | 1.26 | 0.71 |
| KD | 8 | 61 | 13.11 | 11.04 | 40.6 | 1.19 | 0.67 |
| CD | 48 | 415 | 11.57 | 11.7 | 274.2 | 0.99 | 0.66 |
| GP | 1 | 11 | 9.09 | 11.72 | 1.4 | 0.78 | 0.13 |
| ELP | 7 | 89 | 7.87 | 10.4 | 36.8 | 0.76 | 0.41 |
| PID | 1 | 17 | 5.88 | 8.95 | 4.2 | 0.66 | 0.25 |
| BTP | 0 | 69 | 0 | 5.64 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
- It’s kind of surprising, but Canterbury, Mountaineer and Indiana Grand have the largest ROIs among tracks from which shippers have traveled.
- It may be a bit dangerous to include all of the horses in here without removing any who may have no business actually racing at Keeneland (think 50-1 shots for example). I believe it’s somewhat interesting to call out Saratoga and Belmont shippers. They have extremely low returns, but that assumes you bet every shipper from Belmont or Saratoga. If you consider the win percentages which are relatively high for the larger samples, you might be able to find some good value by pitching out longer priced horses. That being said, 4 winners from Belmont have had very short prices. The argument is likely better for Saratoga shippers.
Two turn dirt races
| LAST_RACED_TRACK | WINS | MOUNTS | WIN_PCT | EXPECTED_WINS | PAYOUT | IMPACT_VALUES | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| PRX | 2 | 11 | 18.18 | 20.64 | 4.4 | 0.88 | 0.4 |
| AP | 4 | 23 | 17.39 | 7.93 | 96.5 | 2.19 | 4.2 |
| CBY | 2 | 14 | 14.29 | 10.69 | 12.4 | 1.34 | 0.89 |
| SAR | 9 | 64 | 14.06 | 17.73 | 21.1 | 0.79 | 0.33 |
| CD | 33 | 242 | 13.64 | 13.19 | 177.9 | 1.03 | 0.74 |
| IND | 4 | 33 | 12.12 | 12.91 | 22 | 0.94 | 0.67 |
| KEE | 6 | 51 | 11.76 | 12.87 | 29.8 | 0.91 | 0.58 |
| ELP | 4 | 35 | 11.43 | 7.86 | 57.4 | 1.45 | 1.64 |
| KD | 7 | 67 | 10.45 | 12.33 | 32.2 | 0.85 | 0.48 |
| BEL | 1 | 13 | 7.69 | 21.1 | 3.1 | 0.36 | 0.24 |
| BTP | 2 | 51 | 3.92 | 6.4 | 10.7 | 0.61 | 0.21 |
| MTH | 0 | 11 | 0 | 8.78 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
- Don’t let Arlington fool you. The 17% win percentage is somewhat impressive. However, the payout (for a dollar) on 4 winners was almost $100. This suggests the average odds of each of those winners was 25-1. Fluke, or something to monitor?
- While not the standout numbers from above, Canterbury shippers have beaten the takeout – something worth noting in an otherwise boring chart.
One turn turf races
I extended this to look at tracks that saw 5 or more runners shipping to Keeneland.
| LAST_RACED_TRACK | WINS | MOUNTS | WIN_PCT | EXPECTED_WINS | PAYOUT | IMPACT_VALUES | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| IND | 2 | 8 | 25 | 5.41 | 38 | 4.62 | 4.75 |
| KEE | 1 | 5 | 20 | 16.12 | 0.8 | 1.24 | 0.16 |
| CD | 1 | 6 | 16.67 | 5.55 | 4.9 | 3 | 0.82 |
| SAR | 2 | 15 | 13.33 | 12.43 | 8.8 | 1.07 | 0.59 |
| ELP | 1 | 10 | 10 | 7.02 | 32.2 | 1.42 | 3.22 |
| AP | 1 | 13 | 7.69 | 4.84 | 3.1 | 1.59 | 0.24 |
| KD | 2 | 48 | 4.17 | 11.63 | 5 | 0.36 | 0.1 |
| LRL | 0 | 5 | 0 | 8.07 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
I showed this chart for consistency and completeness. If it wasn’t for only two winners coming from Kentucky Downs, I would have skipped it.
Two turn turf races
| LAST_RACED_TRACK | WINS | MOUNTS | WIN_PCT | EXPECTED_WINS | PAYOUT | IMPACT_VALUES | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| BEL | 7 | 35 | 20 | 16.51 | 25 | 1.21 | 0.71 |
| SAR | 11 | 73 | 15.07 | 14.53 | 38 | 1.04 | 0.52 |
| KD | 24 | 216 | 11.11 | 10.95 | 177.8 | 1.01 | 0.82 |
| CD | 9 | 105 | 8.57 | 7.38 | 122.1 | 1.16 | 1.16 |
| IND | 2 | 26 | 7.69 | 3.45 | 57 | 2.23 | 2.19 |
| ELP | 2 | 27 | 7.41 | 7.21 | 8.9 | 1.03 | 0.33 |
| WO | 1 | 16 | 6.25 | 10.91 | 4.3 | 0.57 | 0.27 |
| AP | 2 | 36 | 5.56 | 7.77 | 45.4 | 0.71 | 1.26 |
| LRL | 1 | 18 | 5.56 | 12.4 | 4 | 0.45 | 0.22 |
| KEE | 1 | 29 | 3.45 | 5.57 | 10.9 | 0.62 | 0.38 |
| DMR | 0 | 11 | 0 | 8.18 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| PID | 0 | 11 | 0 | 3.57 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
- The New York circuit appears to dominate this chart. I suppose that’s not surprising given the number of turf races run in New York and given a certain trainer is based there.
- With many more starts, the Kentucky circuit, at least between Kentucky Downs and Churchill Downs, does very well, especially on the ROI front.
- Surprisingly, runners that last raced at Keeneland (no distinction between whether it was during the same meet, or from the previous, suggesting a very long layoff) have only won 1 of 29 races.
