Keeneland Full Card Analysis – 4/10/24 – By Eric Solomon

Weather could certainly be an issue for the first Wednesday of the meet. Showers were in the forecast for both Tuesday and Wednesday, with about a half-inch of rain possible today. There’s only two turf races carded today, so there’s no All-Turf Pick-3 wager. With a pair of Grade 1 races coming up this weekend on the lawn, there’s a good chance that those two races will be contested on the dirt. I’ll handicap accordingly in those races. First post for this eight race card is scheduled for the usual 1:00 (ET).

I’ll be covering this exciting meet on the ITM Blog, along with posting some updates and thoughts from time to time on Twitter @EricSolomon718. Feel free to reach out!

Race 1:

The week starts off with a $50K maiden claiming race for fillies and mares, three and up, sprinting six furlongs. Eight of the nine fillies in this race are three years old with Goldys Lock (#5) being the lone four year old in the group. I like Up the Creek (#2) a good bit in this race. She was solid in her debut at the $100K maiden claiming level at Churchill on debut. She ran ok against maiden special weight types in December at Turfway, but she struggled in her most recent start at this level there in February. Her best career race came on the dirt and she’s shown an ability to pass horses in the later stages of a race. She has tactical speed which should serve her well on this course, especially the way it was playing over the first few days. William Cowan is a high percentage trainer with a smaller stable, so I’m expecting her to run a big race in this spot. Lady June (#6) is a longshot that might have some upside in this spot. She ran twice last year at Horseshoe Indianapolis, both races being contested at a mile. In her lone dirt try, she was quite wide into the first turn and was forced to make an early bid. However, she failed to sustain that drive and faded to be 7th that day. She’s been on the sidelines ever since and now makes her first start for a bit of an unknown trainer. Alvin Taylor did have a pair of winners last year making their first starts off similar layoffs. She cuts back to a sprint and gets class relief after some quality workouts in preparation for this start. At long odds, she feels like she has an outside chance to win, but could definitely be a horse that could add value to the vertical exotics. 

Race 2:

The third two year old race of the season attracted another overflow field, with 15 entered in this race, where only 12 will run. The first baby race was won in dominating fashion by a Wesley Ward runner who was a massive favorite. The second baby race was a little more contentious with two runners well in front of the rest of the field. The winner was the foal to run from the stallion, Thousand Words, and went off at 45-1. In this race, we’re scheduled to see the first two year olds starters from both Tiz the Law and Complexity (both of whom have a live look in this race). Both of the winners in the first two baby races thus far started in the outside stall, which is interesting since the favorite, Raise the Bar (#1), breaks from the rail. He’s coming from the Wesley Ward barn and his first few workouts aren’t as sharp of some of the other horses that Ward has brought here. Image of Me, who was a distant 4th on as the favorite on Sunday, was working faster than this colt. Bostonian (#15), who needs three defections to run, has been working faster as well. If that one does sneak into the body of this field, I’ll include him on my tickets, but if not, I think this a spot to try to beat Ward. I’ll make Tapirs Valor (#10) the top pick for John Hancock. Hancock trained the tough luck runner-up in the Sunday baby race. This colt is sired by Tapwrit, who, despite being known for winning the Belmont in 2017, has had competitive runners in two year old maiden races. He’s clicked with 14% debuting two year olds thus far. Tyler Gaffalione taking the mount won’t hurt his chances either. Enduring Spirit (#8) is the first foal of another Belmont winner, Tiz the Law. He was a winner on debut, and this colt, which cost his owners $100K last year, has some respectable AM drills. The same could be said for the first son of Complexity to hit the track, Tuxedo Park (#7). He gets in light with the ten pound apprentice, Irving Moncada, in the saddle. Like Tiz the Law, Complexity was a maiden winner as a two year old on debut at the Spa. The dam for this colt has produced a pair of debut winners, including Headline Report, who broke his maiden on this course and distance in 2021.

Race 3:

Fillies and mares will sprint six furlongs in this $30K starter allowance race. In addition to having to have started for a $30K tag or less at least once, competitors in this race must also be non-winners of three career races. I’m intrigued with Echo Foxtrot (#8) getting back on traditional dirt in her third start off the layoff. She won her first two races at Laurel and Delaware, before finishing 5th in a deeper starter allowance race at the Spa. She ran well on the turf and synthetic before going to the sidelines. She came back over a year later and ran a credible in her first start at Turfway. Her most recent was not her best though. She’s shown more early speed on turf and synthetic than she did in her two starts on the dirt. She did well stalking the front end in her two career tries on the dirt and her outside post should allow for that kind of trip today. Her win in the slop is also a plus with the weather forecast. Anna’s Wish (#7) is strictly the one to beat in this race after struggling in stakes company at Aqueduct. She was a distant third in the Cicada Stakes with only four runners, but she was up against a decent group and the final time of 1:09:4 was a solid time on that track at this time of year. She was a clear winner two starts ago when facing starter allowance types in New York. That was her best career effort and the only race where she competed with race day Lasix, which she’ll get to use once again today. 

Race 4:

$20K maiden claimers will be tested by going nine furlongs in this race. It’s not very creative, but when looking at the last three races that Top of the Street (#12) has run at Oaklawn, I’m not seeing any horse in this race that has proven that they could beat those efforts. He’s a three year old that has been given several chances when facing maiden special weight and higher priced maiden claimers. He finished a strong second three starts back against a good group at Oaklawn. He’s been a bit dull by comparison in his last two tries, However, that dullness still shines brighter than the form from just about any other runner. If Cool Operator (#14) gets two defections and is able to compete, he’d be the main competition, dropping in class for Danny Gargan. He has three starts against maiden allowance types at Aqueduct with all three races in the mud. He’s faced decent horses, but he just doesn’t stack up at that level. The forecast is calling for a wet afternoon, so I don’t think an off-track would hinder him. He’ll try two turns for the first time today, and despite the wide draw, he might be the biggest competition to the favorite. Moonovermontgomery (#4) ran twice as a three year old, showing little in those first two races. She dropped into the $12,500 maiden claiming level in New Orleans last month  where she closed well to be second, despite a less than ideal break. While her sire, Ransom the Moon, was a decent sprinter, having the Tiznow influence underneath could prove to be important with these. One more runner that would be worth using if he came in off the AE list would be Cashmeup (#13). Toss his effort two back at Churchill where he clearly wasn’t his best self. He was claimed for $30K by LInda Rice that day and she gave him some time off and brought him back to a $15K maiden claimer at Turfway. While that isn’t the most encouraging sign, the fact that he ran a better race tells me that he should at the very least be competitive with these. 

Race 5:

The Early Pick-5 ends and the Late Pick-4 begins with this $10K starter allowance contest for fillies and mares, four and up, sprinting six furlongs. A horse must have started for a $10K tag or less at least once since the start of 2023 in order to be eligible to run in this one. In the fall, Samarita (#10) showed up to a race at this condition going seven furlongs, which I thought might have been out of her scope that day. She was riding high on a five race win streak that day and I thought there could be better value elsewhere. I took a strong stand against her and she absolutely blew up my Pick-5 tickets when she drew off to win by almost 13 lengths. She ran one more time in 2023, running 4th in a loaded Claiming Crown race going one mile on a very sloppy course at the Fair Grounds in December. She’s had three sharp works since then at Hawthorne. She picks this spot for her 2024 debut, running for a high percentage barn that wins a lot of races each year in Illinois. Emmanuel Giles lost his bug status at the end of last year and Jose Rodriguez is giving him a big opportunity to ride here at Keeneland. They’ve won a lot of races together in the past, so I’m not concerned about him taking on the big boys here. I think the outside draw should make his task easier today, and I see her starting a new win streak when finding the Winner’s Circle for the 11th time. Protomagic (#8) is another mare that knows how to win races. Since Juan Cano took over training her, she reeled off four strong wins in a row with starter allowance types on the synthetic at Turfway. She moved up the class ladder and took a shot with an optional claiming/N1X allowance field, and she ran well enough to win, finishing a close third, despite being interfered. She does have three wins in her career on the dirt and her off-track efforts aren’t bad. She makes a lot of sense as a higher priced alternative to the top choice. 

Race 6: 

On either surface, I think there’s a standout in this N1X allowance race for four year olds and up. Last year’s three year old class was relatively strong in the turf division. Battle of Normandy (#10) finished a game 4th in the G1 Saratoga Derby, and then improved to be third in the G3 Dueling Grounds Derby. He makes his four year old debut today in this one mile mile contest. While the one mile distance of this race might be a bit short for him, I think he’s been competitive against some of the top horses in his class. He ran well, despite losing as the favorite at this level on this course last season. I think he’ll fire fresh and be a player in some of the better turf races this season. Alexis Zorba (#11) is a pace factor in this race and could be more than that if he takes to a softer turf course. He broke his maiden two starts back at Gulfstream in front running style. He came back to run a solid second at this level there, just getting beat on the wire. He has an international pedigree, so there’s reason to believe that he can handle a turf course with some give in it. His lone attempt on a yielding course was a second place finish in Ireland two years ago. Mischievous Angel (#9) ran a strong race at Belmont going six furlongs on debut two starts ago. That effort was good enough for him to be considered for the Hall of Fame Stakes at Saratoga. He didn’t have the best of trips that afternoon when finishing 6th. He’s been sidelined since and he’s been transferred from Chad Brown to Juan Abreu. He ran well twice as a three year old and the future is certainly bright, however, his price point is going to be the driving force on how I play him in this race. If this race goes to the main track, Dissolved (#16) is the one to beat. He makes his second start off the layoff while also going back to two turns. He ran very well to be third against a strong field here in the fall. He was off until returning at Turfway in February where he graduated from the maiden ranks. He certainly could be an interesting prospect on grass, but he’s a proven commodity on dirt already. This would be a good spot to tackle winners for the first time should this race be transferred to the main track. Carcano (#7) is the main track backup here. He was progressing nicely last year for Victoria Oliver, but now regroups and looks for a fresh start and rough effort in the St. Louis Derby. Oliver’s horses tend to need a race after a layoff before they’re at their best. He did run well at Ellis when making his first start of 2023, so I do think he’ll be competitive.

Race 7: 

The second of the three allowance races is an optional $100K claiming/N1X race for three year olds going 1 1/16 miles on the main track. There are some promising runners in this race, many of which are coming off strong maiden scores. Only three of nine runners in this field did not face maidens in their last start. One of those runners is the morning line favorite, Heartened (#3), who was 5th in the Tampa Bay Derby in his last start. There was absolutely no early speed signed on for that race, so I was a little surprised when Jose Ortiz didn’t ride him for early position with his rail draw. He was buried behind a glacial pace near the back of the field. He improved position and came with a strong bid when diving to the inside. He showed improvement off his maiden score that day, but perhaps that puzzling ride is why Jose Ortiz is riding Everdoit (#8) today as Flavien Prat gets the assignment for Pletcher. However, the fact that Irad Ortiz landed on More Vino (#6) hints to me that he may be the one to beat in this race. He’s starting at 8-1, but I see that number dropping before post time. He was a sharp winner on debut at Tampa Bay Downs last time out. Pletcher likes using that track and he has no qualms about bringing his better runners up to Oldsmar. He’s been working well at Palm Beach Downs and gets a significant rider upgrade here. Native Land (#2) was visually striking when crushing a maiden field in his third career start at Oaklawn last month. He has a lot of potential, but he seems to still be figuring out how he’s going to run his best race. I think for him to have a shot, he’ll need to be a little closer to the front end than he was last time out. I think 3-1 is a little too short for me in this spot, especially with the way he closed last time out and how this track has been playing. 

Race 8:

The Wednesday nightcap is a N2X allowance race carded for 1 1/16 miles on the turf. If this race stays on the turf, I think Reckoning Force (#1) is an interesting price play for Brendan Walsh. He beat Battle of Normandy (See Race 6) in N1X allowance company last April on this oval, but wasn’t heard from again until showing up in a 7 ½ furlong allowance race at Gulfstream last month. He was dismissed at 26-1 in a large in a strong field and he did himself no favors when taking a fairly significant stumble in his first two strides. He was relegated to the back of the field, but he finished with some late interest to get into 9th, beaten less than five lengths. When he’s at his best, he has more tactical speed than he was able to show in that race. I think the rail draw should allow Flavien Prat to sit in a pocket and hopefully find a way out late. Greek Order (#2) makes his stateside debut for Bill Mott and Juddmonte in this race. He’s been competitive overseas, including nearly missing in a Class 3 Handicap last year at Newmarket when facing a whopping 33 rivals. We’ll see how he adapts to North American racing, but having Irad Ortiz accept the mount is meaningful. He’s never run a poor race and he should appreciate the softer footing. Bellouni (#12) went off form for a bit last year, but he came back with a quality effort in the same allowance race that Reckoning Force is coming out of. He was wide when finishing 5th, less than three lengths behind the race winner. He cleared the N1X condition in the Woodhaven Stakes at Aqueduct last spring. I see him as a runner that could benefit from getting that first race back, but he will need some racing luck while breaking from Post 12 in this race. If this race gets transferred to the main track, I think Pipeline (#7) towers over his rivals. He’s Grade 1 placed at seven furlongs and he’s Grade 3 placed at nine furlongs. He now runs for Cherie DeVaux, who tried him on the grass for the first time last out. He showed some early interest before fading late that day. I think he’s a major pace factor if this race stays on the turf, but if the weather does what I think it might, he should be the one that benefits the most. 

Meet Statistics, Top Pick Winners: 8/30 (26.7%), $76.10, $2.54 ROI

How to Read the Picks-Grid:

This grid has become my favorite tool for helping to handicap a race card in advance. Keep in mind that these designations for me are flexible and may change depending on how the value in the betting market shifts leading up to post time. 

The “Top Pick” Column is fairly self-explanatory, meaning that it’s the horse that I think will win the race. 

The “A” Column is reserved for the horses that I feel have the best chances of winning. The more horses that are in this column per race, the more wide open I think the race might be. For multi-race wagers, these horses will be on the bulk of my tickets. If I’m betting on the vertical wagers (exactas, trifectas, superfectas), these horses would likely be candidates to be keyed on top.

The “B” Column are horses that I think have a chance of winning, but I don’t like them as much as the runners on the A line. If I put a morning line favorite in this column, I’m trying to find ways to beat them. For me, favorites on the B line typically will either be used underneath in the vertical exotics, or perhaps not at all. They’ll typically be used on some back up tickets in the multi-race wagers, especially in races where the other options aren’t as strong. I might also relegate a horse to the B line if I don’t think there’s good value on that horse with their morning line odds or how I think the race will be bet. For example, If I think a horse should be closer to 5-1, and their morning line odds are 3-1, he might start on the B line for me. If the betting public moves the line closer to the odds that I feel are fair, and I like the horse’s chances, I could move them up when I’m playing the race. 

The “C” Column is reserved as a deep backup for me. Again, if a favorite is on the C line, that’s me telling you that I don’t like them that much in this race. I definitely won’t be using them on top in any vertical wager, as I’ll be trying to beat them with most of my tickets. Sometimes this spot will be reserved for a crazy longshot that checks one of the boxes I might be looking for when playing horses at long odds.