Keeneland Full Card Analysis – 4/12/24 – By Eric Solomon

The weather continues to be less than ideal, but they should be on the grass, at least for the Grade 1 Maker’s Mark Mile, which adds some definite spice to the Friday card. Charles Appleby has a formidable duo in that race, headed by Breeders’ Cup Mile winner, Master of the Seas. The Fanduel Limestone Stakes for three year old fillies also supports this excellent Friday card.  First post this afternoon will be 1:00 (ET). 

I’ll be covering this exciting meet on the ITM Blog, along with posting some updates and thoughts from time to time on Twitter @EricSolomon718. Feel free to reach out!

Race 1:

A ten horse field starts the day in open $16K claiming company. There’s not a ton of early speed in this race, so this looks like a good spot for One for Richie (#3) to try to get rolling early. At eight years old, he might have lost a step or two, however he was claimed last out by a barn that has numbers with horses in their first starts for them. He’s definitely a better horse on dirt than he is on the synthetic course, so his Turfway form feels a bit inconsequential to me. While it’s been a while since he;s found the Winner’s Circle, six furlongs is his best distance, winning 20% of his races at this trip and finishing in the money in 55% of them (22-40). If he can secure a loose early lead, he may prove to be too tough to catch. Tilted Towers (#6) makes a ton of sense in this race, shipping here from Hawthorne. He ran 5th in a five furlong sprint which was designed to jump start his eight year old campaign. Brittany Vanden Berg has good numbers second off the layoff. However, he is 0-4 at this distance, never hitting the board in any of those four starts. The class drop should help things, but at short odds, that’s enough to at least ponder some other options. Spycraft (#10) has 10 wins in 32 career starts. He does have a win on this oval, but his recent dirt form is a bit questionable. He did notch a win at this level at Turfway two back, so his overall form is solid. 

Race 2:

15 maidens are entered, but only 12 can run in this $20K maiden auction going seven furlongs. Modern Day Warrior (#5) is a Wesley Ward first time starter that has been re-entered in a $40K maiden claiming race at this distance tomorrow. My guess is that Ward will likely opt for the harder race and defect from this spot. If Ward opts to run him in this spot, that hints that he might not be that high on his ability. Regardless of his status, I ended up making Erasmus (#12) the top pick for Tom Drury. He ran well in his one start on conventional dirt, getting a sloppy track in maiden allowance company at Belterra last spring. He went to the sidelines in July and didn’t resurface until February where he came back at Turfway. I’m not sure how much he likes the synthetic course, but he did run an improved race on that surface in his last start. I think the surface switch is a positive for his third start off the layoff. Sharp Shot (#6) has faced some salty competition in maiden special weight races thus far. Brad Cox opts to drop him for a tag, while stretching him out to seven furlongs today. Cox has won with 35% of his runners dropping from maiden special weight to maiden claiming company, but his ROI is still under $2.00, telling me these horses are getting hammered at the windows. On deeper tickets, Port Royal (#10) is a horse that might be a candidate to excel at this longer sprint distance. Six furlongs feels too short and two turns feels like it’s out of his comfort zone. He finished with interest on a wet track at the Fair Grounds when making his first start since June. I expect him to be more fit for this race.

Race 3:

I like Cyclone Mischief (#3) a lot in this optional $80K claiming/N2X allowance race at nine furlongs on the main track. After watching his N1X allowance win at one turn at Gulfstream last year, I thought he was going to be better suited to that kind of race. However, his third place finishes in the Fountain of Youth and the Florida Derby look pretty good, when you figure he finished in front of Mage in the Fountain of Youth and he finished behind Forte in both starts. Since then, it hasn’t been smooth sailing. If you bet him to finish last in the Kentucky Derby, you would have cashed that ticket last year. Romans gave him some time off and brought him back in a one turn allowance race at Churchill where he was 4th. He tried the Fred Hooper Stakes at this distance and had a rough go in that race. He didn’t get out of the gate cleanly and then he was bumped into by his neighbor in the first few strides. He advanced willingly along the inside, but once the hole was closed, he was forced to steady. He tried to re-break, but his race was run at that point as Dettori protected him at the end. I like the move back to two turns after those last two races and I think he could wire this field. I’ll backup with Tall Boy (#7) in the outside stall for Doug O’Neill. He makes his second start off the layoff and his first on dirt in over ten months. He did win a Group 3 race in Dubai on dirt earlier in his career, so perhaps the surface switch will be to his benefit at this level. He was competitive on synthetic last out at Turfway.

Race 4:

Harrodsburg (#2) is the heavy favorite in this $80K N2L claiming race for three year olds and up, going seven furlongs. While $80K is no small amount, the fact this this horse is running with a tag is concerning. He ran a huge race on debut at Aqueduct last year and followed that up with a bigger effort in N1X allowance company. He was third in the Grade 3 Dwyer, beaten 11 lengths behind Fort Bragg and Saudi Crown when we last saw him. He still is eligible for the N1X allowance condition, and there’s a lot of money to be made at that level in Kentucky, Arkansas, and New York. If Atras thought he could hit those numbers again, there’s no reason not to be running in an allowance race. Asmodeus (#5) is an interesting player in this race, coming back on the dirt after a trio of synthetic starts over the winter at Turfway. He ran a monster race in a one turn mile at Aqueduct last winter when he was making his second career start. He was hammered at the windows in his next start and he bounced off that big number, but was still good enough to win. He lost to the eventual Belmont and Travers winner, Arcangelo in the Peter Pan and something went amiss in his last start in New York, where he jogged home. He came back with a pair of solid tries at Turfway on synthetic, but he faltered in his most recent start. William Morey is a high percentage trainer who cuts him back to seven furlongs and brings him back to the dirt. I think he’s capable of running another big race and the fact that he gets a big rider upgrade to Jose Ortiz is enough to put him over the top for me. While he doesn’t love to win races, Wicked Again (#11) is appealing to me on the drop in class. He has tried several times, but hasn’t been able to clear the N1X condition. This will be the first time he runs with a tag, and he’s facing off against several horses that have question marks in their form. I do think this is a good distance for him despite his 0-2 record at seven furlongs on this oval. He faced a pair of very strong fields in those races. There’s a chance that he could get an off-track this afternoon, which would be to his liking. Abadin (#8) is also worth considering, making his first start since the beginning of November. He misfired that day, but there’s no shame in losing to a horse like Money Supply. He’s a winner at this distance and he makes his first start since being moved to Mike Maker’s barn. He’s not the most consistent runner, but on his best day, he’s good enough to hang with all of these. Aged Truth (#7) is another one that is a little puzzling as to why he’s entered in this race. He was purchased for $155K after a blowout win at two turns in Indiana when running for Brad Cox. The fact that he’s entered with an $80K tag is concerning. However, I do like his last two workouts over this course, and Caio Caramori does have a good track record with new acquisitions and horses coming off longer layoffs. I’m going to need better than 6-1, but he’s worth backing up with in this race. 

Race 5:

While I think the stakes races will be safe from being taken off the turf, I’m not sure what they’re going to do with this N1X allowance race. If this race stays on the turf, it’s a wide open contest, but I think you’re going to see Kalispera (#12) finishing the best on a softer course. She just missed in a Group 3 race on good to soft ground at Longchamp in September. She doesn’t have a ton of early foot, but the pace could be solid in this race. She broke her maiden while going from last to first on the Tapeta at Gulfstream back in January. That kind of trip didn’t win many races on that course, especially during the Championship Meet. Perhaps the 7 ½ furlong distance of her last race on the grass was a little short for her. The firm ground may not have been her best preferred course as well. Despite her wide draw, I see her as the one to beat. There’s a pair of runners with an impressive gate to wire maiden win on their respective resumes. Only Emotions (#4) won at Horseshoe Indianapolis in November, drawing clear to win by over six lengths. Even at lighter circuits, you don’t see a lot of turf races that wind up being romps, so there is definitely some quality to this filly. She wasn’t as effective when facing winners on the synthetic in her most recent start at the beginning of the year. She was a given a little rest and she has inside position on Killshave Beauty (#11), who was a gate to wire maiden winner here in the fall. The softer course and the amount of pace pressure are going to be definite question marks. However, Paulo Lobo always seems to show up here with a live longshot every season. Killshave Beauty took care of her business on debut when catching a good course here in October. She’s been working well in the AM for Andrew McKeever. She might need this race, but the fact that she won at first asking and the fact that Johnny V. takes the assignment, tells me this filly has some quality. The morning line favorite is Royal Wintour (#5), who has the European pedigree that might prefer a course with some give to it. She was solid when breaking her maiden in her second career start at Gulfstream last out and she’ll face winners for the first time today. Her number is a little short on the morning line, but I do think she’ll be worth covering. If this race goes to the dirt, I think Just Better (#10) will be the one to beat. She was a solid second in an off the turf race at the Fair Grounds when making her first career start in January. She came back to break her maiden by a narrow margin on the grass in her second career start. She paired her first two Beyers and could have a forward move. Purloin (#7) will likely be a much shorter price than her 20-1 morning line if she runs on the dirt in this spot. She was a winner at Aqueduct in an off the turf race in October and her effort in the Golden Rod wasn’t terrible. Thorpedo Anna coming back to win the Fantasy certainly validates the form from that race. Her last on the dirt at Gulfstream was a disaster, so she’ll have to show she can rebound. I don’t want to take too short of a price on her because of that, but I do see her as a threat on the main track. 

Race 6:

A dozen three year old fillies will sprint 6 ½ furlongs in the first leg of the Late Pick-5. I think the Omaha Beach fillies stand out in this race, giving the edge to On Command (#9). He moved early after a tardy break at Gulfstream when making her second career start. She tired late in that seven furlong race, finishing a decent third. She shipped here about three weeks ago and has a pair of sharp works, possibly tipping a big effort in this spot. Wesley Ward sends out Kehoe Beach (#2) for the second time today. She debuted at Turfway in maiden allowance company and she led most of the way before falling apart late. Ward has five winners in 15 starters at this meet so far. This is a horse that her connections paid $450K for, so the expectations have been there since the beginning. On deeper tickets Bellofthebluegrass (#12) has the outside post for her second career try. Her debut at Oaklawn was respectable, although the winner, Motown Dynamic, was disappointing when facing winners for the first time last week. She had a sharp drill on this oval last week and could be worth using on some deeper tickets. 

Race 7, The $250K Fanduel Limestone Stakes:

Three year old fillies are set to dash 5 ½ furlongs on the turf, which should have some definite give to it. One would have to think that kind of course would benefit the foreign invader, Pipsy (#3) for Flavien Prat. She did little wrong in her first three career starts in Ireland. She broke her maiden on a yielding course overseas and she gets Prat to ride. She’s a bit of a wild card, but I’d think the course is going to be more favorable for her when compared to many of her rivals. Kodiac Wintergreen (#5) closed from the back of the pack to break her maiden in her second career start, coming at Saratoga this summer. She tried the mile at Kentucky Downs and ran an even 4th when making her last start as a two year old. She’s been on the sidelines since, but I think she has a live look of a horse that could be finishing with more energy in the stretch. Amidst Waves (#12) had a productive three year old campaign for George Weaver, winning a pair of stakes races. She faced the boys in her last two starts of the year, nearly winning the Indian Summer and running 10th, beaten only four lengths in the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Turf Sprint at Santa Anita. She makes her seasonal debut and is another contender in a wide open race. She handled softer ground at the Spa, so I think she’ll handle this course as well. 

Race 8:

The last Pick-3 opportunity of the afternoon starts with a N2L allowance race for four year olds and up, going seven furlongs. Tunisian Spring (#11) is the morning line favorite in his first start as a four year old. He made a favorable impression in his first three starts, winning once and finishing second in the other two. He broke his maiden on this course at this distance in October and he figures to be very tough in this spot for Wesley Ward. He’ll be on my tickets, but I do wonder how much pace pressure he’s going to encounter in this spot. He has an outside post and the best early speed, but there’s at least three others that are likely going to be vying for the lead. If they make him work too hard, he may be struggling to find enough energy to finish on top. I think the one that could be sitting in the garden spot is Classic Legacy (#3) for Bill Mott. He finished third behind Tapit Trice in the Tampa Bay Derby last year. He ran well to finish third in an allowance race on Derby Day, but struggled against Extra Anejo in the allowance race that ended his season last year. He came back full of energy when finishing a strong second, beaten only a ½ length in an allowance race at Gulfstream. He was bred to be a good horse and I expect him to be rolling late in this race.

Race 9, The Grade 1 Maker’s Mark Mile:

Last year, Charles Appleby sent out the Breeders’ Cup Mile winner, Modern Games, in this race where he was hammered down to the 2-5 favorite. He looked unstoppable on paper, but there wasn’t not much pace signed on. The opening half mile was run in 47.66, which is very slow for a race that finished up in a stakes-record time of 1:33.46. Chez Pierre made an early move and Modern Games was never going to catch him that day. This year, Appleby sends out Master of the Seas (#4), but he brings assistance in the form of Naval Power (#3). This four year old gelding did just win a Group 2 stakes in Dubai back in February, but I think his role today is going to be to ensure that the stable star gets a fair pace to close into. The field is going to be small as Du Jour (#7) did not ship from California this week. There’s no true front-runner, so he might wind up having the best chance to beat his shorter priced stablemate. While Master of the Seas is a beast, he does his best work on firmer ground and the softer course might hinder his closing kick. I’m giving the edge to Integration (#8) who had run, but had nowhere to go in the Pegasus World Cup Turf. He was very sharp when breaking from the gate that day, but Gaffalione let an aggressive pace develop in front of him. He desperately needed a way out, but was never given one. He had to tap on the brakes and re-rally once he did make it through. The softer course is going to be the X factor for him. However, I do think he has more tactical speed than most in this race, and his outside draw should eliminate any potential traffic trouble. Frankie Dettori picking the mount is also a plus in what figures to be a rider’s race. Flavien Prat rode brilliantly to win this race on an unheralded runner last year with Chez Pierre. He rides Kubrick (#5) for Chad Brown, making his second start in North America. He won like a good thing last time out at Tampa, drawing off to win by over three lengths. This is a much saltier group, but the softer ground might suit him a little better than some of the others with some European form. He was a winner on a boggy course at Longchamp in Group 3 company back in 2022. His French form from 2023 was lacking, but he’s racing for Chad Brown now and it;s not often that a Brown horse is flying under the radar. 

Race 10: 

The Friday nightcap is a $30K starter allowance race for three year olds and up that have started for a $30K claiming tag or less and have never won three times. What makes Keeneland so great is that you have horses that were victorious in starter allowance races at the Fair Grounds, Oaklawn, Turfway, and Tampa, all coming together in another starter allowance race here. I do think the Oaklawn races that Lips Say Bliss (#7) has been competing in are top down tougher than the other circuits. Black Apple is one of the best Arkansas breds in training and he got the better of Lips two back. He rebounded and won in front-running style last out. He’s an adaptable horse that continues to run strong races, posting a mid to low 80’s Beyer Figure in each start. He’s the one to beat. Tagliatelle (#9)is an interesting longshot with some upside for Jose Ortiz. His line start on traditional dirt was a win/. He figured out the Tapeta and won a starter allowance race there last month. I think there’s an upgrade possible on the main track. At or 15-1, I’ll take that chance. Midnight Raid (#4) was the winner of the Fair Grounds starter allowance in her last start. There’s enough speed signed on that he should be able to tuck while sitting off the early leaders. He did toss a clunker after running a career best in 2022, so I’d tread lightly while still assuming that he’s a player. On deeper tickets, I’ll try Ejitmaa (#10) and Irad Ortiz. I don’t like the outside draw, but his last two tries  at Tampa have been dominant on dirt. He’s going to have to pass the two turn test today, which is a question mark.

Meet Statistics, Top Pick Winners: 15/45 (33.3%), $108.16, $2.40 ROI

How to Read the Picks-Grid:

This grid has become my favorite tool for helping to handicap a race card in advance. Keep in mind that these designations for me are flexible and may change depending on how the value in the betting market shifts leading up to post time. 

The “Top Pick” Column is fairly self-explanatory, meaning that it’s the horse that I think will win the race. 

The “A” Column is reserved for the horses that I feel have the best chances of winning. The more horses that are in this column per race, the more wide open I think the race might be. For multi-race wagers, these horses will be on the bulk of my tickets. If I’m betting on the vertical wagers (exactas, trifectas, superfectas), these horses would likely be candidates to be keyed on top.

The “B” Column are horses that I think have a chance of winning, but I don’t like them as much as the runners on the A line. If I put a morning line favorite in this column, I’m trying to find ways to beat them. For me, favorites on the B line typically will either be used underneath in the vertical exotics, or perhaps not at all. They’ll typically be used on some back up tickets in the multi-race wagers, especially in races where the other options aren’t as strong. I might also relegate a horse to the B line if I don’t think there’s good value on that horse with their morning line odds or how I think the race will be bet. For example, If I think a horse should be closer to 5-1, and their morning line odds are 3-1, he might start on the B line for me. If the betting public moves the line closer to the odds that I feel are fair, and I like the horse’s chances, I could move them up when I’m playing the race. 

The “C” Column is reserved as a deep backup for me. Again, if a favorite is on the C line, that’s me telling you that I don’t like them that much in this race. I definitely won’t be using them on top in any vertical wager, as I’ll be trying to beat them with most of my tickets. Sometimes this spot will be reserved for a crazy longshot that checks one of the boxes I might be looking for when playing horses at long odds.