Keeneland Full Card Analysis – 4/14/24 – By Eric Solomon

The week ends with a nine race Sunday afternoon card. There’s a pair of 12 furlong N2X allowance races that will anchor the card and make up the first and last leg of the All-Turf Pick-3. After some lousy weather at the start of the week, the weekend continues to be beautiful for the weekend. The track was fast yesterday and the turf was labeled good, but for all the rain that came through the area this week, the course  First post this afternoon is 1:00 (ET).

I’ll be covering this exciting meet on the ITM Blog, along with posting some updates and thoughts from time to time on Twitter @EricSolomon718. Feel free to reach out!

Race 1:

The day starts off with a $20K maiden claiming race for fillies and mares going seven furlongs. Miss Golden Penny (#9) gets the call for me, cutting back in distance after trying two turns on the synthetic when facing $30K-$20K maiden claimers at Turfway at the end of February. Aaron West added the blinkers and she was a little bit keen as she made her way to the front. She hit the quarter pole and came up empty in the stretch. She paired her first two Beyer figures and will be competing on a fast track for the first time. I don’t think this is an especially strong field for this condition, so I see this as more class relief.  Delighted (#10) is also shipping in from Turfway for this race today. She ran a decent race against $30K-$20K maiden claimers two starts ago. Colebrook moved her up in class last time and she struggled behind a runaway winner. She’s been working well over the local oval, so the transition from synthetic to dirt shouldn’t be a big issue. Fasta Lavista Baby (#1) was claimed at this level at Churchill in the fall and she ran a decent second on this course with $30K maiden claimers in October. She competed in maiden special weight company in two turn races at the Fair Grounds over the winter, nearly pulling off an upset in one of them. Her recent form has been lacking as she’s coming off a last place finish in the slop there. She cuts back in distance and gets some needed class relief for her return to Lexington. She makes sense in this race as well. 

Race 2:

This race is labeled as a $30K N2X claiming race, meaning this race is open to horses that have never won two races. However, races that a horse has won while running with a claiming tag of $20K or less do not count toward those allowances. For what it’s worth, everyone entered in this race qualifies under the N2L condition so this particular race is no different than a $30K N2L claiming contest. I think this race is going to come down to the two shorter prices on the morning line. Quincy Rider (#1) makes the most sense to me in this race. He debuted at the end of January in a restricted maiden special weight contest at Turfway and he took the early lead and never looked back, winning by over six lengths at the end. He came back in an optional claiming/N1X allowance race on that synthetic course where they carved out insanely fast fractions. He broke from the outside and couldn’t keep pace when they went 21.3 for the first quarter and 43.4 for the half mile split. Jonathan Thomas drops him in class and moves him to the dirt, while stretching out to the 7 furlong and 184 foot distance of this race. There is no one that is quick enough to go with him early so I think he can set an easy lead from his rail post, while saving something for the stretch drive. Beaumont Red (#3) should be the main danger, cutting back from two turn races in New Orleans. His form was a little muddied going into the maiden special weight race in his last start where he was the winner at odds of nearly 20-1. His best races are on fast dirt tracks, and there are a few dull efforts on turf and mud sprinkled in his running lines. He only cost $12K, so I don’t mind that he’s running for a tag in his first start off the maiden allowance victory. If the top pick falters, he’d be the one picking up the pieces, but I think he might be up against it from a pace standpoint in this race. 

Race 3:

They’ll move the rails on the turf course out to 20 feet for the first time during this meet. They were out at 10 feet last Sunday and they were at 0 on Friday and Saturday. The course is still wide enough to accommodate a field of 12 when the rails are at this position. The first of four turf races today will be a maiden special weight contest for three year olds going 1 1/16 miles. There’s an overflow field of 16 entered. What makes this race especially complicated is that the only runner with two turn turf experience is John the Beer Man (#14) and he needs a pair of defections to participate. I’m going to side with Garden Leave (#5) on top in this race for Shug McGaughey. This colt is a first time started sired by Curlin out of the multiple graded stakes winning mare, On Leave. Her first foal to race wanted no part of the dirt in her debut, but she turned around and won her second start, which was a two turn race on the turf. While he was known for his dominance on dirt, people forget that Curlin ran a heck of a race in the Man O’ War in 2008, finishing second to Red Rocks. He has produced 13% winners in turf routes over the last five years as he continues to be one of the most productive sires in North America. In the stall next door is Spin It (#6) who is a Hard Spun first time starter. Hard Spun and Curlin came from the same class, both born in 2004. Hard Spun was the runner up to Curlin in the 2007 Breeders’ Cup Classic and both are still producing quality racehorses twenty years later. The dam of Spin It is Try Your Luck, who was also a graded stakes winner on the turf, She broke her maiden on this course by over nine lengths in 2016. She would go on to win the Dueling Grounds Oaks at Kentucky Downs by  over seven lengths that same year. Her lone foal to race so far had only one start and she was a fast closing third on turf in her debut. Jose Ortiz has been riding very well at this meet and he’ll get the assignment for Cherie DeVaux. Enhanced Scat (#4) makes his third career start and turf debut for Pavel Matejka today. He showed a lot of improvement from start one to start two when sprinting 6 ½ furlongs in both starts on synthetic at Turfway. He’s sired by Justify who gets 14% winners in turf routes. The dam was unraced and the three horses that she has foaled have never started a race on the turf. Of the runners in the field, he has the best last race Beyer, so at 20-1 or higher, I’d be willing to take a shot with him in a field where so many are unproven. I’ll also cover with the two shorter prices, Cameo Performance (#1) and John the Beer Man, assuming the latter can find a way into this field. Cameo Performance is bred for turf on the top and bottom. His sire is Oscar Performance, who was a multiple Grade 1 winner on the turf. His dam, La Moneda, was a stakes winner with New York breds on the turf and she was graded stakes placed before retiring. This colt debuted overseas in a seven furlong race on the synthetic course at Dundalk in Ireland. He lost a heated battle that day and figures to be a threat on the turf in this race. John the Beer Man was flying late on the grass in his debut at Gulfstream for Chad Brown. He showed absolutely no early speed, but was motoring home late. Drawing the far outside post, which would likely be the case if he ran, won’t help his early positioning. 

Race 4:

The second division of the $20K maiden claiming race for fillies and mares at seven furlongs will start the Pick-6 today. Like the opener, this is not a very deep field as it feels like there is a lot of filler. While favorites are going to be tough, in terms of longer prices to think about underneath, or possibly trying to upset the apple cart, maybe Pretty Lily (#10) is worth a look from her outside stall. Her debut with $15K-$10K maiden claimers at Turfway was solid, just missing that evening. She came back in a two turn race at that level and was claimed by Yoni Orantes, who has four wins with 32 starters thus far in 2024. This barn is hitting with 20% (2-10) of its runners first off the claim and in a race where there isn’t much upside, this Mendelssohn filly could be a surprise winner at long odds. Grace Given (#3) feels like the one to beat in this spot. She ran well at this distance over the summer at Ellis, finishing second that day with maiden special weight company. She tried stakes company as a maiden and faltered. She was given some time off and returned for a pair of races at Gulfstream, where she was beaten by double digit lengths. Toss her last effort on the Tapeta, and she comes into this race taking a deep drop in class. Blinkers go on for her third start off the layoff, so I expect her to be forward in this race. Lite It Up Louie (#1) feels like the obvious main danger. She’s also dropping out of maiden allowance company. She’s trying to figure out what she’s going to be best at. She has a nice effort on this course at this distance. 

Race 5:

The first division of an N2X allowance race for older horses going 12 furlongs ends the Early Pick-5 and starts the Late Pick-5. Headline News (#5) is going to be very tough to deal with in this spot. He checks a lot of the boxes that you’d want in a horse in a race like this. He’s developing into a nice turf horse for James Toner, who is patiently bringing this along. He was a game 6th, beaten less than three lengths in his graded stakes debut in the Mac Diarmida at Gulfstream in his last start. Toner avoided the Pan American or the Elkhorn next week in favor of this race. Sometimes that would be a bit of a concern for me, but with a developing horse and an old school trainer, I think it’s the right move. Jose Ortiz had options in this race and sticks with him. Utah Beach (#7) is one of only two horses in this field with experience at this distance on the turf. He cleared the N1X allowance condition at Gulfstream going this far in his last start. Ignacio Correas has been building up his stamina over the winter, with races gradually getting longer. He’ll need to take another step forward to beat the top pick, but I think he is trending up while coming to this race. 

Race 6:

The Late Pick-4 begins with an open $50K claiming contest for three year olds going 1 1/16 miles on the main track. While there’s a bunch of horses that want to be forward in this race, Mr. Faversham (#1) is going to be waiting near the back of the pack. Horses coming from too far back have not fared tremendously well at this meet so far, and I don’t love them at this distance when the race starts and ends at the 1/16 pole. However, under the right circumstances, they can connect, and that’s my hope for this Tonalist colt. He was claimed for $50K when he broke his maiden at Turfway three starts ago. He tried the Battaglia Memorial at Turfway where he was never a factor. With Encino and Epic Ride running big races here at Keeneland, the form for that race has certainly been validated. He came back to be third in a $50K starter allowance in his most recent try at Turfway. He was a well beaten second here on debut and he had to deal with Track Phantom in his only two turn dirt start. Luan Machado had a pair of winners yesterday and he’s going to need to keep this horse in contact with this field in the early stages to give him the best shot of winning. Blown Cover (#3) has inside position on the other speed horses and he’s faced some of the tougher fields when compared to the competition some of the others have seen. Maycocks Boy and Snead ran away from him late, on the way to posting monster Beyer figures, two and three starts ago. He misfired against a solid group at Oaklawn in his most recent start. He drops for a tag, which is probably the right at this point. He figures to be the one they’re going to have to catch. Yo Daddy (#9) is a deeper saver for me in this spot. He likely wants to be in the middle of the pack when going into the first turn. He’s been close in his last two at the Fair Grounds

Race 7:

Fillies and mares will go 1 ⅛ miles on the turf in this N1X allowance race.  Ithink Zipadoo (#7) is the value play in this race for Graham Motion and John Velasquez. She broke her maiden on this course at this distance in the fall. She came back to run a close up third at this level at Aqueduct, finishing just behind the morning line favorite, Notinamillionyears (#12). He didn’t have the same level of success over the Gulfstream Park turf course, which may have been a little too firm for her liking. Motion gave her a few months off and waited to bring her back here to run at this first level allowance level. She’s listed at 8-1 and has a better post than the Chad Brown runner who is listed at 3-1 and will likely go off at odds lower than that. Last Call (#10) makes her first start of the year and her first since joining Jonathan Thomas’ barn. He has strong numbers with new acquisitions. Technically this horse has cleared the first level allowance condition when she broke her maiden in the Grade 1 Natalma as a two year old. However, this race is also eligible for horses that have never won twice, which allows her to run here. That was the same story when she finished third here in the fall when she was last seen on the track. She was stakes placed as a three year old and ran some strong races at a variety of distances. I’ll back up with the Chad Brown filly, Notinamillionyears, in her first start of the year. He does a great job getting his horse ready to fire off the bench. On a day where some of his better horses weren’t firing their best yesterday, he still won the Jenny Wiley with a big longshot, Beaute Cahcee. That filly was making her first start off a similar layoff. Beating Brown’s favorites can be lucrative, as proven with Ready for Shirl getting the best of Spaliday in maiden company yesterday. However, going all-in against him can often lead to feeling foolish. 

Race 8:

The last dirt race of the day is a $20K starter allowance contest going seven furlongs. There are no additional qualifiers for this race as the only condition is that a runner must have started at least one time for a claiming price of $20K or less since January 1st, 2023. Much like in the last race, when I’m looking at common races, I’m seeing some value on the morning line with Solidify (#4) at 6-1. He has been traveling in the same circles as Pure Panic (#5), who is 3-1 on the morning line. They have four common races together, and Solidify has beaten Pure Panic in three of them. They met twice at Turfway on synthetic over the winter, with Solidify winning once and finishing in front of his rival both times. More importantly, when they met on this oval in the fall, Solidify was better, finishing in front of Pure Panic by 3 ½ widening lengths. Solidify does have some up and down form, and to be on board with him in this spot, you’ll have to be willing to toss his last against a sharper group. I see Mac Daddy Too (#3) being a problem for Pure Panic. They both want to run the same race, so the inside position for this one should be beneficial. He has a win in his lone try at this distance, while Pure Panic didn’t finish nearly as strong. I think these are two that I want out of this race. 

Race 9:

We’ll end the week with another N2X allowance race at 12 furlongs on the turf. I think Beuys (#8) is an interesting runner on the stretch out for Mike Maker. He cleared the N1X condition by winning a N2X race at Kentucky Downs this summer when going seven furlongs. He came back here and just missed when going a mile at this level. He was moved to Maker, who has a knack at finding these horses that relish these longer distances. This is a horse that was one length behind the winner when going 10 furlongs on soft ground in France. I’ll trust the Maker can get this six year old gelding to have success at this longer trip. Foreign Relations (#7) was an easy winner on this course with N1X company at this distance. However, he caused a spill and was disqualified. Undeterred, he came back to win the Grade 3 Louisville at this distance at Churchill when he officially cleared the N1X condition. He just missed at this level in his last start in October. I think Conor Murphy would have preferred to get one start into him prior to this race, however, I would think that repeating in the Louisville would be on his agenda for the spring. Murphy’s horses tend to struggle a bit in their first starts off the bench. Otherwise, I think he’d be my top choice here. Regal Kingdom (#6) is a four year old that may be getting better at the right time for Graham Motion. He had a win at this distance at Delaware Park in the summer when clearing the N1X condition by beating older runners. His speed figures have improved over his last two starts, to a level where he could be competitive with this group. Calycanthus (#2) is also a four year old on the upswing for a strong barn. He’s sired by English Channel, so I do think he’s going to like going this far. He was 9th in the Mac Diarmida last out, and if Headline News runs the way I think he’s going to run in the 5th, I would upgrade this one’s chances off that race. 

Meet Statistics, Top Pick Winners: 20/65 (30.8%), $140.20, $2.16 ROI

How to Read the Picks-Grid:

This grid has become my favorite tool for helping to handicap a race card in advance. Keep in mind that these designations for me are flexible and may change depending on how the value in the betting market shifts leading up to post time. 

The “Top Pick” Column is fairly self-explanatory, meaning that it’s the horse that I think will win the race. 

The “A” Column is reserved for the horses that I feel have the best chances of winning. The more horses that are in this column per race, the more wide open I think the race might be. For multi-race wagers, these horses will be on the bulk of my tickets. If I’m betting on the vertical wagers (exactas, trifectas, superfectas), these horses would likely be candidates to be keyed on top.

The “B” Column are horses that I think have a chance of winning, but I don’t like them as much as the runners on the A line. If I put a morning line favorite in this column, I’m trying to find ways to beat them. For me, favorites on the B line typically will either be used underneath in the vertical exotics, or perhaps not at all. They’ll typically be used on some back up tickets in the multi-race wagers, especially in races where the other options aren’t as strong. I might also relegate a horse to the B line if I don’t think there’s good value on that horse with their morning line odds or how I think the race will be bet. For example, If I think a horse should be closer to 5-1, and their morning line odds are 3-1, he might start on the B line for me. If the betting public moves the line closer to the odds that I feel are fair, and I like the horse’s chances, I could move them up when I’m playing the race. 

The “C” Column is reserved as a deep backup for me. Again, if a favorite is on the C line, that’s me telling you that I don’t like them that much in this race. I definitely won’t be using them on top in any vertical wager, as I’ll be trying to beat them with most of my tickets. Sometimes this spot will be reserved for a crazy longshot that checks one of the boxes I might be looking for when playing horses at long odds.