Keeneland Full Card Analysis – 4/24/24 – By Eric Solomon

There’s only three days remaining in the 2024 Spring Meet at Keeneland. There will be racing today, tomorrow, and Friday, here before the racing in Kentucky shifts to Louisville in advance of the 150th Kentucky Derby, coming up in less than two weeks. There’s an eight race card with three races carded on the grass. That means that there will be the All-Turf Pick-3 wager available for the final Wednesday of the meet. The first leg in that sequence will be the 4th race today. First post today is 1:00 (ET).

I’ll be covering this exciting meet on the ITM Blog, along with posting some updates and thoughts from time to time on Twitter @EricSolomon718. Feel free to reach out!

Race 1:

The day starts off with a $20K N2X claiming race for three year olds and up, going six furlongs. This race is for non-winners of two races, but horses with more than two wins that have won a race where they were offered for a claiming tag of $16,000 would be eligible. However, everyone in this field qualifies under the N2L condition. The morning line favorite in this spot is Shogun Be Fast (#2), who comes back to Kentucky after a pair of dull efforts in New Orleans. He was favored in his debut where he was locked in a stretch battle with Orange Diablo, who passed him, but was allowing him to stay in the race by not switching leads. Orange Diablo kept coming in on Shogun Be Fast and the last bump almost caused him to go down. Gaffalione was able to regain himself and stay on board to keep him in second, but the damage was done. Orange Diablo crossed the wire first, but his number was taken down due to the sloppy stretch run. Shogun Be Fast was declared the winner, but he’s never finished better than 4 ½ lengths behind an opponent. The maiden field that he was in was not a particularly good field, and his last two races have not been very strong. He takes a deep drop in class and gets Keith Asmussen to ride here for the first time during this meet. He’s ridden very well at Oaklawn, but it took him a little while to figure a few things out there. I’m not seeing enough to make me comfortable with this one as the favorite, so I’m going to be looking in another direction. Ellie’s Boyfriend (#3) has been bad in his last two starts, however, one of them was a two turn race in the slop in New Orleans and the other was a five furlong sprint on synthetic in South Florida. His dirt form was much better than that he fired a strong four furlong bullet work on the dirt at Gulfstream last week. He was claimed for $20K and has been offered for $50K in his last two starts. He gets class relief while getting back to a surface and distance which should favor him. Hijack the Party (#1) ran well with $20K maiden claimers on this oval last year, coming from off the pace to grab the lead, only to fade late to be third. He was probably the best horse in that race, because he had two separate spots of trouble, but still ran well to try to overcome them. He went off form for a bit, while running for a few different outfits. He broke through with a gate to wire win with $15K maiden claimers last month. He is trending in the right direction and is proven to be able to handle the local surface, 

Race 2:

A field of 16 two year old fillies are entered in a 4 ½ furlong dash on the Headley Course. On Sunday a Wesley Ward baby and Steve Asmussen baby dueled in the two year old maiden race here with the Ward filly getting the narrow advantage in one of the slower races at this distance during this meet. The morning line odds suggest that Ward and Asmussen have the primary players once again however, I’m going to try to beat them both with Little Alexa (#10). She’s sired by Unified, who has 18% winners with two year old first time starters on dirt so far. The dam foaled a talented two year old named Shippy, who dominated in her debut and then finished third in the Schuylerville, beaten less than a length back in 2019. John Ennis has won a few of these races, winning twice during the 2021 Spring Meet. Tyler Gaffalione taking the mount is also a positive sign. The Ward horse in this race is Caribbean Wind (#1) draws the rail and gets Irad Ortiz, who had a four-win Sunday, to ride. She’s the first foal to run from the unraced Bernardini dam Antilla. Speightstown gets 12% winner from his two year old dirt sprinters. As per usual, this barn is dominating these baby races at the meet, winning five of seven of them so far. Only one of his six two year olds that have run did not win. She’s clearly the one to beat. On deeper tickets, I’ll consider using both Fleet Street (#5) and Mo Pics Please (#11). Fleet Street is sired by Street Boss, who was a winner on debut as a two year old. He gets 11% winners from two year olds sprinting on the dirt. She’s first foal to race from the mare Summers Hope, who was a debut winner herself. Mo Pics Please was also foaled by a debut winner, however, the first three runners from the dam were not as precocious as their mama. Mo Town gets 11% winners with two year olds sprinting on dirt for their first starts. The works are solid for a barn that has won a few of these races in the past. 

Race 3:

A field of nine has been assembled for this $50K maiden claiming race which will kick off the Pick-6. There’s not much early speed signed on for this 1 1/16 mile contest, so I’m thinking that the addition of blinkers will be a plus for Drury Lane (#2). He’s making his third career start and his first on dirt after a pair of synthetic efforts at Turfway. He was 5th in both of those races and now ships to Lexington where he’ll get some class relief by dropping in for a tag for the first time. He’s sired by Ghostzapper out of the mare, Carella. Two of her other three foals to make it to the track followed the same racing pattern to victory that this colt is following today. Both Eldest Son and Hidden Wonder debuted in a sprint and then made their second start in a route. They lost those two races, but both found the Winner’s Circle in their third career start when routing for the second time. Horses that last raced at Turfway continue to excel at this meet. Brendan Walsh has six winner from 22 starters here this month. Rousette (#8) is a longer priced runner that has a live look in this race. He ran well two starts back in an off the turf race with $30K maiden claimers at the Fair Grounds. He was forwardly placed and came within a length of the winner. While I’m not sure how deep that field was, that effort was considerably better than his two turf tries. I’m not overly impressed by many others here and I think he has the right running style to put himself in contention with this group.

Race 4:

Brown and Pletcher train the principal threats in this maiden special weight race for three year olds and up going one mile on the turf. This race oversubscribed, so the racing office split it into two divisions, with the second heat going off as Race 8. Looking at the pace scenario, I think the conditions are considerably more favorable for Coinvest (#8), racing for Todd Pletcher. He went to the lead on debut and was nailed on the wire when going 1 1/16 miles. He cut back to 7 ½ furlongs for his second start where he stalked the pace from his rail draw. He was able to tip out late, but Luis Saez stole that race on the lead and he was able to hold off Irad Ortiz, who was riding this colt. Ortiz is back in the saddle, fresh off a four win afternoon. I think he’ll sit a similar trip, however, since he’s drawn more to the middle of the pack, I think he can avoid getting buried along the rail again. West Point Thoroughbreds and St. Elias Stables paid $1,100,000 for this City of Light colt, so the expectations are there. I think he graduates today. The main danger is Unit Economics (#7) for Klaravich Stables and Chad Brown. He definitely has a more turf forward pedigree than the top pick, however, he hasn’t shown any early speed in his first two starts at Gulfstream. Malibu Springs was able to fend off his late surge in his last start and that one came back to easily clear the N1X allowance condition in an off the turf race in the slop here two weeks ago. He showed a powerful closing kick in his two South Florida starts, and this course in general should suit him better. However, unless a horse like Surf City (#10) is extra keyed up coming off the bench, I don’t see a strong pace battle on the front end. He’ll have to prove that he’s not going to be pace dependent to beat a field like this, and as the morning line favorite, I’m not wanting to take too short of a horse that has something to prove. He’s a backup for me in this spot. 

Race 5:

$30K maiden claimers will sprint six furlongs here. I’m interested in Air Force Coming (#8), who showed a lot of speed in his debut in a maiden special weight race at the Fair Grounds on the turf. He faded late and finished about five lengths behind Hero Worship (#5), who is the morning line favorite in this one. While his pedigree appears to favor the turf, his sire Air Force Blue gets 15% winners in dirt sprints. His dam, who was sired by War Chant, foaled a horse that won at seven furlongs on dirt on debut and won her third career start in a six furlong stakes race. Another longshot that looks interesting is Star of Caesarea (#3), who admittedly, has shown no early speed in his first two starts at Turfway. That hasn’t been a style that has played well on this course throughout the meet. However, he’s paired his first two Beyers on synthetic and he’s bred to improve on the dirt. The dam has foaled several winners and most of them have done their best work in dirt sprints. I’m very torn about what to do with Grand Rapids (#6) in this spot. This is a horse that I’d consider in a maiden special weight race after showing some solid works of late on this oval. Her dam won the Grade 1 La Brea Stakes and was a multiple graded stakes winner and he’s sired by Into Mischief, who is one of the top North American stallions in the game. I understand he is owned by WinStar, whose breeding operation is top notch. The fact that he has been gelded certainly doesn’t do much for them in that aspect. I’ll cover with him, but I don’t have a ton of confidence with this one debuting with a $30K tag. Hero Worship is another runner that is a bit perplexing at this level. He has two sharp races and two duds in his four career starts. He comes back to the dirt after running poorly on the grass last time out. This isn’t the deepest group and I’d like to do better than 8-5. However, his connections and pedigree are still hard to ignore. 

Race 6: 

Fillies and mares will go 1 ½ miles on the turf in the N1X allowance race. The heavy favorite on the morning line is Viva La Red (#2), who has been on a steady diet of stakes races in South Florida for Patrick Biancone. I think she’s vulnerable for a few reasons in this spot. She did not run well on this course in the fall, coming up empty in a 1 3/16 mile turf race at this level at the end of October. She’s been more competitive in her last two starts and is now dropping in class. My concern is that she’s being ridden by Keith Asmussen today. He rode sparingly here in the fall, winning once with 19 starters. He’s only ridden 28 turf routers in the last year, and none of those races have been contested at this distance. I think these 12 furlong races are definite jockey’s races, and his lack of experience in this situation is concerning, especially on a horse that should be a short price. I think there’s a ton of upside with I’m a Sure Thing (#5) and Tyler Gaffalione. Gaffalione doesn’t have great numbers in longer distance turf races (4-44, 9%) however, he’s ridden this horse very well, just missing with her two starts back at Gulfstream. She’s shown improvement over her last few races on turf. She broke her maiden in a 12 furlong race on the Tapeta at Gulfstream in her last start. Her turf races are faster than her two synthetic races, and I think she has found a niche in these marathon races. She wants to be forwardly placed, which wasn’t a bad place to be on this course over the weekend. Her sire has produced a stakes winner (Orglandes) at this distance in North America and Christophe Clement excels with long distance turf runners. I’m going to back up with Condone (#3), trying this distance for the first time on the turf. She finished 2nd in a 10 furlong race on the Tapeta two starts back. She finished midpack in a race at this level going one mile at the beginning of the meet. She’s sired by the Belmont winner, Justify, who has sired two horses in North America that have gone this far. One was a winner and the other finished third, so perhaps he’ll prove to have an influence in these marathon turf races as a sire. 

Race 7: 

The featured race of the day is an optional $80K claiming/N2X allowance race for fillies and mares sprinting six furlongs. There are three four year old fillies that are making their first starts of 2024 and a promising five year old mare, all of which could easily be stakes bound sooner than later. Unsung Melody (#1) and Amaretti (#8) start on opposite ends of the starting gate in this race, but they both want to be on the lead. Both Accede (#2) and Howl (#3) are likely to be right behind those two, waiting in the wings, and both fillies have scored sweet stalking trips on this course. While there’s not much separating these two, I’m going to give the slight edge to Howl, thinking that she’s better suited for the six furlong trip. If this race was at 6 ½ or 7 furlongs, I think I’d lean the other way. Howl was excellent, winning at this distance in her debut here. She tried seven furlongs in the Safely Kept at Laurel, where she was a little green, but she was good enough to win. She was favored in a weak edition of the Grade 1 La Brea at Santa Anita in her last start, and she finished up the track. Cox gave her some time off and she appears ready to roll after some solid works at Churchill. Accede cleared the N1X condition on this course at 6 ½ furlongs in her last start. She opted to skip this meet last year after breaking her maiden on debut in the middle of March. She made her second career start in the Grade 2 Eight Belles Stakes on Oaks Day last year where she was moving late to get third. She went off form while racing in stakes company in New York and on turf at Kentucky Downs. She got right when she came here, but has been away since. Her dam won the Raven Run here when it was contested on a synthetic course. Ervadean (#7) is a longer priced option in this race that may be trending in the right direction. She cleared the N1X condition at the Fair Grounds on New Year’s Eve and then was given a few months off. She came back with a strong effort at this level in the slop there in March. I think she’s another horse that will be sitting the right kind of trip, but she is going to have to move forward to beat a field of this caliber.  

Race 8:

I think the second division of this maiden special weight might not be as strong at the top as the first heat, but this definitely feels like the better betting race. I’m not sold on the morning line favorite, John the Beer Man (#10). He made up a decent amount of ground late after getting shuffled back on debut, but he showed absolutely no early speed, and this is another race where the early pace doesn’t feel like it’s going to be lively. Rebel Red (#5) gets the nod for me in this spot. He’s making his North American debut and his first start in just over 18 months. He’s now with Cherie DeVaux, who is an excellent horsewoman, who has strong numbers with new acquisitions and horses coming off longer layoffs. He was forward from the gate in both of his two starts overseas as a two year old. He faltered in his last where something seemingly wasn’t right. The debut was sharp though, just giving up the lead late at Salisbury. He’s a son of Frankel, so there’s always been expectations for this one to be a runner. John Gunther is the owner and breeder, so bringing him to North America might be the best option for him to try to maximize his potential value. Irad Ortiz rides the top pick and it could be an Ortiz brothers exacta if Vesture (#11) takes to the turf in his second start of the layoff. He didn’t show much on the grass when sprinting to the front and fading on debut at Saratoga in September. His dam broke her maiden in a turf sprint at the Spa and she was an allowance at this distance on the grass. Her other runners haven’t done much, but this one has shown enough to think there might be something better there. Special Dispatch (#12) is another one that is going to need to overcome a tough draw if he wants to score with these. He ran very well two back in an off the turf maiden race at the Fair Grounds. He came back to be a solid second in his turf debut there. There’s reason to believe that he can improve. Blinkers on has not been a good angle for McPeek horses, but I don’t hate the move going into this race, especially when breaking from the outside stall. As a deeper saver, I’ll use Decanted (#6) for Mike Maker. He has been very strong at times, but those races have not been the norm up to this point. He did run his best race on this course last year, following a similar pattern. He was second off the layoff, making his return at Turfway last year. He was coming back off a longer layoff and folded up pretty badly last out. He fits the pace profile though and if that last race can scare off a few extra dollars, he might be worth upgrading.

Meet Statistics, Top Pick Winners: 30/117 (25.0%), $218.64, $1.87 ROI

How to Read the Picks-Grid:

This grid has become my favorite tool for helping to handicap a race card in advance. Keep in mind that these designations for me are flexible and may change depending on how the value in the betting market shifts leading up to post time. 

The “Top Pick” Column is fairly self-explanatory, meaning that it’s the horse that I think will win the race. 

The “A” Column is reserved for the horses that I feel have the best chances of winning. The more horses that are in this column per race, the more wide open I think the race might be. For multi-race wagers, these horses will be on the bulk of my tickets. If I’m betting on the vertical wagers (exactas, trifectas, superfectas), these horses would likely be candidates to be keyed on top.

The “B” Column are horses that I think have a chance of winning, but I don’t like them as much as the runners on the A line. If I put a morning line favorite in this column, I’m trying to find ways to beat them. For me, favorites on the B line typically will either be used underneath in the vertical exotics, or perhaps not at all. They’ll typically be used on some back up tickets in the multi-race wagers, especially in races where the other options aren’t as strong. I might also relegate a horse to the B line if I don’t think there’s good value on that horse with their morning line odds or how I think the race will be bet. For example, If I think a horse should be closer to 5-1, and their morning line odds are 3-1, he might start on the B line for me. If the betting public moves the line closer to the odds that I feel are fair, and I like the horse’s chances, I could move them up when I’m playing the race. 

The “C” Column is reserved as a deep backup for me. Again, if a favorite is on the C line, that’s me telling you that I don’t like them that much in this race. I definitely won’t be using them on top in any vertical wager, as I’ll be trying to beat them with most of my tickets. Sometimes this spot will be reserved for a crazy longshot that checks one of the boxes I might be looking for when playing horses at long odds.