Keeneland Full Card Analysis – 4/7/24 – By Eric Solomon

The first week of racing concludes with a nine race, Sunday afternoon matinee at Keeneland. There’s a pair of stakes races that highlight the card, led by the Grade 2 Middleground Capital Beaumont Stakes for three year old fillies going about seven furlongs on the Beard Course. The race before that is the Palisades Stakes, which drew an overflow field of 14 three year olds, dashing 5 ½ furlongs on the turf course. First post for the Sunday card is 1:00 (ET).

I’ll be covering this exciting meet on the ITM Blog, along with posting some updates and thoughts from time to time on Twitter @EricSolomon718. Feel free to reach out!

Race 1:

We’ll kick things off with two year old fillies sprinting 4 ½ furlongs on the Headley Course. This race drew an overflow field of 14. On Friday, I outlined some stats about how successful Ward has been at this baby races at the Keeneland Spring Meet, and while I tried to make a case for another horse, he had Shoot It True primed and ready to fire, as there was never a doubt that she was easily going to be beat the boys in that race. The fact that he entered that one against the boys and scratched his male horse, Bostonian, was a signal to me that Shoot It True was going to win easily. It also tells me that Ward likely didn’t want to run Sweet Kaufy (#6) or Image of Me (#8) against that one. Irad Ortiz taking the mount on Sweet Kaufy tells me that she is likely the preferred runner in this race, and should Image of Me defect, I think it tells you that Ward thinks highly of this Caravaggio filly. She might be one that he has penciled in for the Royal Ascot meet in June. Caravaggio was an excellent turf sprinter, but his runners haven’t had great success on dirt. This filly is a half to Kaufymaker, who was a 6+ length debut winner on dirt here two years ago. I do suspect that she’ll transition to turf sooner than later, and her dirt works are quick enough to tell me that the surface might not matter much today. There’s enough of a turf preference there to lead me to making Image of Me, the other Ward horse, my top pick. He’s a horse that Ward also owns and bred. He’s sired by Hootenanny, who was a two year old winner here at this distance when they ran over the polytrack. He’s had two horses that he’s sired run in dirt races at this distance and both were winners and both were horses that Ward trained, owned, and bred. Gerardo Corrales rode one of those two winners, which was a race where Mangione defeated his stablemate that was thought by bettors to be the better horse. He gets the call today. While there are others that are reasonable prices in this race, I’m not seeing enough to try to beat Ward’s runners with them today.

Race 2:

There’s a field of eight in this $30K starter allowance contest which is restricted to horses that have started for a $30K claiming tag at least once and have never won three times. The morning line favorite in this race is Pico d’Oro (#8) who used to run for Brittany Russell. She won 26% of her races last year and she has been dominant on the Maryland circuit for last few years. While this gelding improved under her card, the fact that he was unable to win any of those races for her tells me that this horse doesn’t love to win. I think J.P. Race (#7) has a strong chance to win at this level today. has three career starts on dirt. He was dominant in his two races at Mahoning Valley to start his career. His other effort came in an off the turf stakes race at Churchill. Since then, he’s run four strong races on the Tapeta at Turfway. He gets some class relief and while I’m not sure this six furlong distance is going to be his best, he can come from off the pace in race where there are many horses that don’t finish their races particularly strong. He’s sent out by low profile connections, which can definitely enhance value at Keeneland.  I see True Jedi (#4) as the main danger in this race. He was claimed by Kent Sweezey at Turfway last out and has since been gelded. He cleared the N2L claiming condition that day and moves to a protected spot. He has yet to win on the dirt, with his other win coming on grass. However, his dirt form is competitive and his lone race on this oval was a sharp effort against a better field. Irad Ortiz picking the mount is a major plus as well. Another runner that comes from some low profile connections is the 30-1 longshot, Hocus (#1). While I do think he’s a cut below the top two picks, he has two strong races on this oval. He broke his maiden here in the spring as a six year old gelding making his debut in a $20K maiden claimer. He was sharp at Ellis in his third career start, clearing the N2L condition in a $50K restricted claimer. He was third at this level in the slop in the fall, and while he might need this race since he’s making his first start since November, I do think he fits here on his best day. 

Race 3:

This is another starter allowance race with multiple conditions. This one is for horses that have started for a $50K claiming tag and are eligible for the N1X allowance condition. They’ll go about seven furlongs over the Beard Course in this race. I’m not crazy about the shorter prices in this race, so I’ll try Newhart (#4) for Godolphin and Michael Stidham on top. He was a solid winner of a $50K-$40K maiden claiming race on debut at Turfway when going one mile. He cuts back to seven furlongs and moves to the dirt for the first time. He’s the first foal to run from the mare She’s Funny, but his grand dam was the very talented mare, Hystericalady, who was a multiple graded stakes winner, but won her only Grade 1 race in the Humana Distaff at this distance. Clearly this runner isn’t one of the top horses from this barn, but the fact that they’re running him in a protected spot tells me that they do think there is some talent there. Northern Chill (#11) cut back to a sprint and got class relief when facing a respectable $50K-$45K maiden claiming field at Oaklawn last out. He broke out, but had the speed to secure the early lead and take that field gate to wire, while posting a solid Beyer Speed Figure for that level. The runner up from that race came back to break his maiden in his next start. I endorsed him in that race last out at 19-1 because I thought that his previous race was a total toss. He’s sired by Accelerate, who won the Breeders’ Cup Classic on this oval. I think he can handle the stretch out. Tizzy Indy (#10) was in way over his head in the Lecomte and the Risen Star at the Fair Grounds. He tried to go on the grass there last month, but rain took that one off the turf. He finished a dull 4th in the slop that day. He cuts back in distance and faces a field that is probably at the right level of competition for him. It’s worth noting that his best career race came at the one turn mile at Churchill, so he may be the most effective in these longer one turn races. 

Race 4:

The morning line favorite, Twirling Good Time (#2) is a horse I’m going to be playing against in this optional $100K claiming/N1X allowance race for three year old fillies. She was spectacular in her debut, easily winning a 5 ½ furlong maiden special weight race at Churchill in September. She’s been on the sidelines since and she’s now being asked to make her first start against winners when going 1 1/16 miles. Her works are good and there’s a chance that this filly is simply that good. Bauer has tried this routing for the first time off a layoff six times in the last five years. His lone winner of that group came on the turf, but three other runners did finish in the money. At the end of the day, taking short odds on a horse that is being asked to do a lot is not something that I generally like to do.  I’m going to be trying to beat her, making Yes Indeed (#3) the top pick. Lael Stables sends out a pair of high priced fillies in this race for different trainers. Cherie DeVaux had this Bolt d’Oro filly based at the Fair Grounds where she broke through with her maiden win last out in her second career start and her first try at two turns. She was confidently handled by Brian Hernandez that day and she looked like a horse that was capable of doing more. Her dam never won a race, but the fact that this filly sold for $850K, which at the time was 34 times more than the stud fee for Bolt d’Oro, tells me that her connections saw something they really liked with this filly. I’ll back up with their other runner, Landed (#9), who is a New York bred, shipping in from Aqueduct for Wesley Ward. She was beaten by My Mane Squeeze in the Maddie May Stakes last time out. That one took a lot of money at the windows in the Fantasy Stakes at Oaklawn last out, but she faltered, finishing off the board. You don’t see a ton of New York breds selling for a half-million dollars, but that’s the case for this daughter of Omaha Beach. I don’t love her wide draw for her first try at two turns, but I think she still has a reasonable chance in this race. 

Race 5:

An overflow field of 16 has filled the entry box for this N2X allowance for fillies and mares sprinting on the turf. For handicappers that like the horizontal wagers, this race has added importance as it’s the end of the Early Pick-4 and Early Pick-5, as well at the first leg of the Late Pick-5 and the All-Turf Pick-3. This is going to be a spread race for me, because I think there are several that have a decent shot to win this. I’m going to make Hideki (#5) the top pick, making her second start off the layoff. She cleared the N1X condition at this distance at Churchill in October and almost did so on this course last April. She was given the winter off and she returned in a N2X allowance race at Turfway that appeared to be designed to get her more fit for this spot. Her trainer, Ryan Walsh, has good numbers second off the layoff and her turf form in general has been significantly better than her synthetic form. Peacock Lass (#6) is another runner that could be flying under the radar. She ran a credible race in her only career start on the turf, which came in the Mamzelle Stakes at Churchill last year. Most of her races had been on the dirt until coming to Turfway over the winter. She ran three strong races there, clearing the N1X level three back and running two strong races at a comparable level. This is a tougher field, but I do think she could be a player on grass here. Run for the Hills (#4) has a lot of in the money finishes, but not a lot of wins. She finished in the money in all four starts with similar at Gulfstream with all of those races coming at five furlongs. I think the added distance of this race will prove to be very helpful for her. She’s shipping here in good form for Mark Casse. On deeper tickets, I’ll include the two runners that I think are going to take the most wagering attention. Hurricane Debbie (#8) makes her second start off the layoff for Wesley Ward. She ran a big race under similar circumstances in the fall when she came within a length of clearing the N1X condition. She finally broke through when coming from off the pace to win at five furlongs last month at Gulfstream. John Velasquez picks up the mount today, and he has done well, winning 23% of the time for Ward at Keeneland. Howboutdemapples (#11) is the morning line favorite for Saffie Joseph and Irad Ortiz. She ran well in the Lightning City Stakes at Tampa last out, but unlike some of the other runners that seem to be finding a better fit at this distance, I wonder if she’d prefer going a little longer. She cleared the N1X condition at Kentucky Downs going seven furlongs, so I am a little concerned that this spot is too short for her. 

Race 6:

There’s another full field in this maiden special weight for three year old fillies going 1 1/16 miles on the dirt. 16 more are entered, but only 12 will compete. I do see Sidamara (#5) as a very dangerous horse in this race. She was strong when debuting at a one turn mile at Gulfstream where she finished a game second, while posting a strong speed figure. Horses sired by Arrogate have won an incredible 33% (23-69) of their races when routing on dirt for the second time. There’s too many positives to leave her off the tickets, but there are other talented runners in this race, and I’m going to try a price, Ava Moon Pie (#10), on top. She debuted at Oaklawn in a race that was run on a muddy and sealed course. She broke well, but Manny Esquivel pulled her back in an effort to try to save some ground. She advanced along the rail nicely down the backstretch as Esquivel was seemingly doing the right thing by following the path of the heavy favorite. However, that one stalled a bit and she lost a little momentum as the eventual race winner, Little Jamie, opened up powerfully. She tired late and those far inside lanes that afternoon might not have been the best part of the course. The third place finisher in that race was her stablemate, Under the Palms, who was making her first start off the layoff. She came back to win against a nice maiden field at Oaklawn at long odds on Arkansas Derby Day. Brian Hernandez rode that filly to victory and he’ll get the assignment for McPeek on this filly, whose dam has produced a pair of stakes winners. They teamed up to beat the favorite in the opener yesterday. Sicilian Princess (#3) looked sharp on debut when finishing second at Turfway two starts ago. She tried stakes company in the Busher Invitational at Aqueduct on a miserable afternoon in Queens. She was wide and flat, never looking comfortable on the sloppy sealed course there. She makes her third start off the layoff and drops back to the maiden ranks. She finds a tough field, but she’s bred to be a good runner. Her half sister, Dream Lith, won the Grade 2 Golden Rod at this distance at Churchill a few years ago. 

Race 7, The $250K Palisades Stakes:

There’s a lot of early speed signed for this stakes race for three years sprinting 5 ½ furlongs on the turf course. The Shakertown Stakes was won by Arzak, who sat midpack and got the jump on the closers. As a result of his tactical speed, he got the jump on the closers and had a much better trip than the favorite, who came running late for second. I think that’s the right kind of trip for this race and looking at the form lines, I think Aspenite (#11) is the one that is best suited to run that race. He was a stakes winner at Kentucky Downs, winning the Juvenile Stakes ten days after just missing in a $253K allowance race. He ran twice at the Fair Grounds for Asmussen, coming home a strong winner in his last effort. He’s about 2 ½ months away and should be fresh and ready to fire in this race. Tyler Gaffalione leads the meet early with five wins and he’s coming off a monster day where he won both of the Grade 1 races yesterday. There’s not much that separates Committee of One (#9), who is the other Asmussen runner, and Shards (#10) who runs for Kelsey Danner. Committee of One was a beck better than Shards in the Indian Summer Stakes here in October, while Shards finished ¼ length in front of Committee of One in the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Turf Sprint. I slightly prefer Shards, making his second start off the layoff today. He was moving well in the late stages of the Animal Kingdom Stakes at Turfway two weeks ago. He ran credible races in all of his turf sprint races last year and I see him as a horse that could move forward in this spot, while likely getting a hot pace to close into. Committee of One might be a bit of a fitness edge, as he’s making his 4th start of the year. He was third behind Neat, who won the Transylvania here on Friday, in the Texas Turf Mile. His last two races were rained off the turf in Orleans, but he continues to run solid races. With so little between this horses, the trip they get is going to decide who finishes in front of who. I think both fit well in this and both should get the setup. Of the runners that want to be closer to the front end, Silent Heart (#5) interests me the most. He was third, beaten only a neck in the Colonel Liam last time. There was a very slow pace and Johnny V. was able to keep him in the thick of things all the way throughout that race. Coming into that race, he had a pair of wins at five furlongs, one on turf and one on synthetic. I think he fits better in this race than he would have in the Transylvania on Friday. 

Race 8, The Grade 2 Middleground Capital Beaumont Stakes:

The featured race drew a field of six, three year old fillies. I think it was a clever move by both Gregory Foley and Todd Beattie to scratch their fillies Harbor Springs (#2) and Vicountess (#5) from an allowance race here on Friday in favor of this spot. Even though the top of this field is stronger than the allowance race, these fillies will each face no more than five runners in this field, giving them a decent shot to earn a graded stakes placing to better enhance their values as broodmares down the road. The purse is just about four times greater for this race which becomes an added bonus. Both fillies are interesting, but I do prefer the longer price of the two Brad Cox horses, making Denim and Pearls (#1) my top pick in this race. Cox doesn’t typically have his horses fully cranked for their debuts and that was likely the case with this Into Mischief filly, who was still good enough to win when going 6 ½ furlongs on this course in the fall. She cleared the N1X allowance condition when going a one turn mile at Churchill when running a significantly faster race. She went to finish second in both two turn tries over the winter at Oaklawn when facing stakes company. She drops off the Oaks chase and comes back to a longer one turn race. I think her foundation and her tactical speed make her a real threat in this race. I thought Harbor Springs was a live longshot in that N1X race on Friday, and I see her as a horse that could be moving well in the late stages of this race. She broke her maiden emphatically at the Fair Grounds, gliding over the sloppy course on the Risen Star undercard in February. She’s sired by Lookin’ at Lucky out of a Broken Vow mare, so there’s reason to believe that she’ll continue to improve while getting added distance. I think Tipsy Tammy (#3) and Youalmosthadme (#6) are going to be setting a decent pace here and I wonder if either will be able to keep finding when they hit the top of the stretch. I prefer Tipsy Tammy to Youalmosthadme because there could be a scenario where the latter concedes the early lead, allowing Tipsy Tammy to be loose on the front end. She’s sired by Arrogate, so the added distance shouldn’t be an issue for her either. She could do no better than third last out when facing allowance foes at the Fair Grounds. She didn’t have the cleanest break, but I wouldn’t classify that as an excuse for a dull effort. Sweet Shild O Mine was the better horse that day. She’s better when she’s on the front end, but if Youalmosthadme is a little extra keen while coming from off the bench, she may be asked to do too much in the early stages of this one. Youalmosthadme is the even money favorite and a four time winner, three of those races coming in stakes company. She typically likes to be on the front end but she changed tactics when coming from off the pace to win the Fern Creek Stakes at Churchill in his last start. She has two huge wins on this oval, but those were both at shorter distances. Her two races beyond 6 ½ furlongs were not very good. At short odds, I don’t trust her going this far, 

Race 9:

Week one at Keeneland concludes with another 16 horse overflow field in a N1X allowance race for fillies at mares going one mile on the turf. This is an entirely different race if Hola Gata (#14) draws in. After breaking her maiden at Kentucky Downs, she has lost a photo in her last three starts at this level. She doesn’t have much early speed, so an outside post isn’t as big of a concern for horses like her.  She almost scored when starting from post 11 in her last race. With a clean trip and a well-timed ride, she should get the job done. She’ll need a pair of defections, so if that’s not going to happen, Bag Lady (#3) is the one that we’ll use to try to end the week on a high note. She broke her maiden on the turf two starts back at the Fair Grounds. Brian Hernandez rode her for the first time that day and he gave her a beautiful, ground saving ride. He was not aboard for her first foray with winners where she finished a close up 5th. He reunites with her for this race, where it feels like the better horses are stuck on the AE list. King’s Secret (#1) draws the rail for this race after struggling in his first two starts against winners. However, those two races came at 12 and 10 furlongs, the latter coming on synthetic. He cuts back to a mile and returns to a course where he’s run well on in the past. He had a nice string of races prior to going off form in longer distance tries. I think he’ll be able to sit near the front and make a run for the lead late. 

Meet Statistics, Top Pick Winners: 7/21 (33.3%), $70.52, $3.36 ROI

How to Read the Picks-Grid:

This grid has become my favorite tool for helping to handicap a race card in advance. Keep in mind that these designations for me are flexible and may change depending on how the value in the betting market shifts leading up to post time. 

The “Top Pick” Column is fairly self-explanatory, meaning that it’s the horse that I think will win the race. 

The “A” Column is reserved for the horses that I feel have the best chances of winning. The more horses that are in this column per race, the more wide open I think the race might be. For multi-race wagers, these horses will be on the bulk of my tickets. If I’m betting on the vertical wagers (exactas, trifectas, superfectas), these horses would likely be candidates to be keyed on top.

The “B” Column are horses that I think have a chance of winning, but I don’t like them as much as the runners on the A line. If I put a morning line favorite in this column, I’m trying to find ways to beat them. For me, favorites on the B line typically will either be used underneath in the vertical exotics, or perhaps not at all. They’ll typically be used on some back up tickets in the multi-race wagers, especially in races where the other options aren’t as strong. I might also relegate a horse to the B line if I don’t think there’s good value on that horse with their morning line odds or how I think the race will be bet. For example, If I think a horse should be closer to 5-1, and their morning line odds are 3-1, he might start on the B line for me. If the betting public moves the line closer to the odds that I feel are fair, and I like the horse’s chances, I could move them up when I’m playing the race. 

The “C” Column is reserved as a deep backup for me. Again, if a favorite is on the C line, that’s me telling you that I don’t like them that much in this race. I definitely won’t be using them on top in any vertical wager, as I’ll be trying to beat them with most of my tickets. Sometimes this spot will be reserved for a crazy longshot that checks one of the boxes I might be looking for when playing horses at long odds.