Keeneland Full Card Analysis – Friday, 4/11/25 – By Eric Solomon

The Grade 1 Maker’s Mark Mile is always a fascinating race which is often an early season target for some of the best turf milers in the country. In recent years, some international outfits have targeted this race, however that is not the case today as all nine runners entered are based in North America. Carl Spackler won the Grade 1 Shadwell Turf MIle here in the fall and Chad Brown has him ready to make his first start of 2025 in this Grade 1 today. The Fanduel Limestone Stakes is also on this card, which is a part of a very interesting All-Turf Pick-3 wager today. First post this afternoon is set for 1:00 (ET).

I’ll be covering this exciting meet on the ITM Blog, along with posting some updates and thoughts from time to time on Twitter @EricSolomon718. Feel free to reach out!

Race 1:

A compact field of six is entered in this $10K starter allowance sprint that starts the afternoon. For a smaller field, there is a lot of early speed signed on, so I’m looking for a horse that has proven they can be comfortable in more of a stalking role. Lucky Shot (#5) fits that description in this race, making his third start off a layoff today for Chris Block. He just missed in a 6 ½ furlong race here in the fall at this condition when he was sent off as a 27-1 longshot. I’d argue the horse who beat him, Like a Saltshaker and the third place finisher in that race, Spycraft, would like be sub-even money favorites if they were in this race. He finished off the board in his first race off the layoff, but he looked much sharper in his last start at Tampa. He’s in good form and should sit the perfect trip off some cheap speed types in this race. Should that one defect for any reason, I’d give the advantage to Twirling Roses (#1). I don’t love the rail draw this one, but in a smaller field, he probably can get away with it. He was very sharp two back when leading all the way in a starter allowance race at the Fair Grounds. He was claimed out of that race and was a little flat in his first start for Eduardo Rodriguez. In spite of that, this barn has won 23% of their races in 2025, so they’re definitely doing some things right. 

Race 2:

A dozen two year old fillies are set to go 4 ½ furlongs. Wesley Ward is often the story of these races and he has a pair of runners with top jockeys entered in this race. Satisfied Mind (#1) gets Joel Rosario in the irons and Gorrono Ranch (#7) has John Velazquez riding. Neither runner has the typical pedigree of one of Ward’s precocious babies though. Both dams were horses that were trained by Arnuad Delacour that never finished in the money in two career starts at Tampa. War of Will sired the favorite, Gorrono Ranch, and he has only hit with 5% of his debut runners in dirt sprints. Satisfied Mind was sired by First Samurai, who has better numbers with first time starters in dirt sprints (16%), but her dam has produced three runners that have done very little on the track. Both horses have been working well enough to consider, but I think this could be a spot where bettors are better off trying to beat this duo, as I’m not sure they’re the best that Ward has in the barn. I’ll try Cheekwood (#4) on top, as there is some precocity in her pedigree. Mendelssohn is hitting with 14% of his debut runners and her dam has foaled three debut winners early on in the two year old season. The works aren’t great, but Ben Colebrook has been live with the limited sample of runners that he’s brought to Keeneland thus far at this meet. Gerrardo Corrales has ridden in many of these 4 ½ furlong dashes for Wesley Ward, so I trust him riding in this spot. He has three wins in 10 starts at this distance here at Keeneland since 2022. Folk Song (#5) appears to be fast enough to keep pace with the Ward fillies in this spot. She has been working well in the AM for Justin Wojczynski, who is looking for his first training win of 2025. He’s sired by Mor Spirit, who only gets 8% debut winners from dirt sprinters. The dam was sired by Cuvee, who was a precocious two year old himself. Two of her three runners to make it to the track were second in their respective debuts. Sophie Doyle has ridden in a pair of these baby races at this meet and she finished in the money with big longshots in both of them. John Hancock had a pair of second place finishes in these two year old races last year and he’s had three winners in the prior three seasons before that. He sends out Cinnamon Sugar (#11) who is an Instagrand first time starter. Instagrand won his first two races as a two year old by a combined 20 lengths. He hasn’t passed on that precocity to his debut runners, as they’ve only won at a 7% clip in their dirt debuts. The post isn’t ideal, but I do like that she’s the only filly that has consistently been working four furlongs, while everyone else has a series of three furlong workouts. 

Race 3:

Open $16K claimers will travel 1 ⅛ miles on the dirt in this race. Business Model (#3) was cross-entered in a race on Wednesday, but he defected from that spot, presumably in favor of this one. Papa Yo (#8) is the play for me in this race. I like that he was a winner at this distance on this course in the fall, scoring by five widening lengths. He wants to be forward and for the most part, that has been a decent place to be on the main track here at Keeneland. He’s coming off a disastrous effort at Tampa in optional claiming/allowance company in February. Saez sees fit to get back in the saddle, as he was aboard for his two career scores last fall. I wrote about how successful he and Christoper Davis have been together yesterday, so this feels like another live pairing for them. With the exception of his last start, his efforts on traditional dirt are all solid. Business Model is the other runner that makes sense to me in this race. He was able to run with the waiver in a $20K time restricted claiming race at Oaklawn in his last start. That felt like a race that was designed to build his stamina as he was coming back after a four month break. He’s eligible to run with the waiver once more, so entering in this spot allowed him to duck a heavy favorite in the race Wednesday (although that runner came up absolutely empty). His effort at Churchill two back at this distance when he was a voided claim, was decent. 

Race 4:

Fillies and mares will sprint 6 ½ furlongs in this $20K N2L claiming race. When I see a horse like Tammy’s Cruiser (#10) in the Form, I immediately am drawn to the fact that horses trained by Michael McCarthy have above average numbers with horses coming back from 61-180 day layoffs and with runners going from routes to sprints. When I see that, I like to try to determine if that has a positive or negative correlation. If there’s a negative correlation (saying that McCarthy’s runners that are coming back from that kind of layoff don’t run as well when they’re cutting back in distance), that can give me a clue to look elsewhere for better value. When there’s a positive correlation for a horse that I’m interested in, then it helps to validate some of my thinking. The latter is the case with this Catalina Cruiser filly. McCarthy has won 26% (9-34) of the time over the last five years with horses cutting back from routes to sprints, while making their first starts off the layoff. This filly has a pair of disastrous two turn efforts in her running lines in synthetic routes, so perhaps that was part of the reason for an abysmal effort in her most recent start. Her lone win came at a one turn mile at Churchill and her sprint efforts are generally more competitive than her routes. Tennessee Honeybee (#1) is a longer priced option for an unheralded trainer. She was claimed for $7,500 at Turfway last out and was bad in three starts there over the winter. Her dirt form in three career one turn races is pretty good though. She could be overlooked in this spot because of her modest connections, but I think she’s a live longshot. I’ll also use the three year old filly, Rare Ruby (#8) in here. She was a debut winner at the Fair Grounds in an optional maiden claiming spot. She came back and was dull in starter allowance company there. She ran well enough to think she can handle this kind of competition, but I’m not sure I want to take any lower than her 4-1 morning line here. 

Race 5:

We’ll go to the turf for the first time today with a N1X allowance race for three year old fillies going 1 1/16 miles. The $3 All-Turf Pick-3 begins with this race and includes both stakes races on the card. I’ll start with a few housekeeping notes in regard to the also-eligible fillies. All four runners are cross-entered in a race at this exact condition on tomorrow’s card. Miss Lonelle (#14), Birkin Girl (#15), and Al Jafara (#16) all drew into the body of that field. Annelle (#13) is on the also-eligible lost again tomorrow, so if there is a defection here, I’d expect her to run, whereas I’m thinking that the other three fillies will wait until tomorrow. The trip that Presha (#3) got last month at Turfway when making her first start of the year stood out as being quite problematic for her. She broke alertly and settled in behind the two favorites in that race and the leader was able to pump on the brakes and set a very easy pace while this filly had nowhere to go in behind runners. She was clearly not pleased while also taking a good amount of kickback to the face that day. She ran well in her lone start on this course last season, nearly pulling off the 32-1 upset in a N2L allowance race. She ran well after that race in the Tepin Stakes on the turf at the Big A, finishing less than a length behind the winner while getting more of a stalking trip. Five G, who was the winner of the Gulfstream Park Oaks last month, finished ahead of her in that race. I think that’s the kind of trip that John Velasquez will need to try to work out with her. I expect a better effort from this Omaha Beach filly today. Play With Fire (#5) hit the front in the La Combe Memorial Stakes last time out at the Fair Grounds, but she may have moved a bit too soon as Fionn went by her in the stretch. That one went on to finish third in the Grade 2 Appalachian Stakes here earlier this week. She’s another filly that figures to sit a favorable trip in this race. I like the rider upgrade to Luis Saez today as well. There is definitely speed signed on for this race and we saw the winner of the nightcap on Wednesday while rallying from last to first on this course. Aterradora (#12) has been beaten twice by Play With Fire at the Fair Grounds this season. She’s been close to the pace in three of her first four starts, but I think it’s interesting to see that her maiden breaking score came while closing into a fast pace while racing from the back half of the field in the early stages. Her outside draw likely commits her to that kind of trip. I don’t think she’s going to be able to win a footrace into the first turn and if Juan Hernandez tries that, I think she’s going to be too wide to have an impact on the outcome of this one. However, if he lets her settle behind the leaders, I think she could be a threat while coming over the top. It is also worth mentioning that the winning filly in the aforementioned turf race on Wednesday, was a longshot that broke from post 12. That horse was trained by Mike Maker and ridden by Juan Hernandez, the same duo that teams up with this Starspangledbanner filly today. There are some questions that would likely keep her on the B line for me, however, I’m interested in including her on some tickets here. 

Race 6: 

Fillies and mares, three and up, will sprint seven furlongs in this $50K maiden claiming race that will start the Late Pick-5. This is a tricky race because toward the inside of this field, you have a few professional maiden types, including the favorite, Churning Berni (#4), who is 0-14, but is dropping into maiden claiming for the first time while now running for David Jacobson. Then you have several runners in the middle and outer part of the starting that have limited racing experience, and none of which has come on a traditional dirt track. I landed on Fitting (#6) as the top pick in this race for Tom Drury. She dropped to this level in her last start at Turfway when coming up short while spending most of that race in chase mode. She cuts back in distance to a longer one turn race, so I do see her having a fitness edge over some of her rivals in this one. Brian Hernandez has started to heat up this week. He won the Blue Grass on Tuesday and then had two winners here on Wednesday. He gets the call on this Flatter filly for the first time today. I think it’s a tough assignment to try to go seven furlongs while coming off a 15 ½ month layoff, but that’s the case today with Stirred Up (#7). She is trained by Michael McCarthy and she’s been working well in the AM in preparation for her return to the races. She ran two credible races in December 2023 at Turfway. She’ll get Lasix for the first time today while dropping in for a tag for the first time. I’ll also include Mink Stole (#3) as a backup in this race. She’s one of the professional maiden types here, but I do like the fact that she’s getting back on a traditional dirt course. She was claimed for $50K and ran four times afterwards at Turfway, all of which came in maiden special weight company. She doesn’t have the highest ceiling in this race, but I do think this is a spot where she could forward a little bit, while also facing some fillies are somewhat unknown in terms of how they’ll compete on this surface. 

Race 7: The $300K Fanduel Limestone Stakes:

The first of two stakes races on the turf today is this 5 ½ furlong dash for three year old fillies. This race drew an overflow field of 16 runners, but there’s a maximum of 12 that will get into the starting gate. I was really impressed with Mighty Eriu (#7) when looking back at her overseas races as a young two year old. She was second at 50-1 in the Group 2 Queen Mary at Royal Ascot when facing 23 rivals. She didn’t have a great trip that day, but she outran her odds in a wild race. She didn’t have the cleanest start at Newmarket in her last start as a two year old, but she ran a credible race to be 7th, beaten 3 ½ lengths. I love that she put into an easy spot at the Fair Grounds where she got the maiden victory when making her first start in the states. Brendan Walsh is his training and Ben Curtis, who has had some sparkling rides, including the one he gave on Think Big to win the Shakertown at this distance here on Tuesday, gets the return call. She could be flying under the radar in this race and I think that gives her a bug chance at a fair price. Abientot (#4) makes her first start of the year for Mark Casse after finishing last of 14 in the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Fillies Turf race last fall. She was strictly a turf sprinter going into that race and is likely to stay that way after that failed experiment. With Shisospicy (#6) and Dreamaway (#9) signed on for this race, along with some other longshots that could be hunting the lead, I expect there to be a fast pace and that would certainly be to the benefit of this filly. She’s going to need a trip, but she was the best of 12 runners in the Grade 3 matron at Aqueduct this past fall. Mark Casse had a pair of three year old fillies finish 1-2 in the Appalachian and he had another three year old filly, La Cara, pull off the upset in the Grade 1 Ashland on Monday. This barn is heating up and his three year olds looks very sharp. If I’m taking Abientot, I should probably also include Kilwin (#12), who ran much better in the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Turf.  She rallied from 10th to win the Untapable Stakes at Kentucky Downs two starts back. She’s been working well for her 2025 debut and while I worry that she might be a little keen, I do think she’s another one that is a good fit in this race. 

Race 8:

The final Pick-3 wager of the day begins with a seven furling maiden special weight race for three year old fillies. I like Meursault (#2) a lot in this race for Chad Brown. She broke a beat slow in her debut at this distance at Tampa. She advanced willingly, but had to tap on the brakes at two different points in that race. She tipped out into the 4 path and was able to surge late to get into third. The race winner, Fondly, came back to win the Virginia Oaks in her last start, and the 5th place finisher came back to break her maiden in a maiden special weight at Tampa. She’s drawn inside again, which might not be ideal. However, I think she’s going to be able to work out a better trip with Flavien Prat in the irons. I see her as the one to beat in this race and my best bet on this card. Girls Rock (#6) is a longshot to think about using underneath and the one I’ll choose as a backup in this spot. She faced a tough duo that ran away from her late at the Fair Grounds on Risen Star Day. The runner-up from that race was a winner here the other day. She’s been working well enough and should benefit from her debut. I’m not certain this is going to be her best distance, but I am thinking we;re going to see a better effort from her. 

Race 9, The Grade 1 Maker’s Mark Mile:

This is one of the premier Grade 1 races for turf milers in the United States and it drew a solid field of North American based runners, headed by Carl Spackler (#6). This five year old colt is making his 2025 debut after a wide journey in the Breeders’ Cup Mile where he could do no better than 6th. That race snapped a three race win streak that included wins in the Grade 1 Fourstardave at Saratoga and the Grade 1 Shadwell Turf Mile on this course. That win here in the fall proved that he can win outside of Saratoga.  Brown is really good off the layoff and he loves winning important Grade 1 races, especially on the turf. Even if he’s starting off at a little less than 100% of the best version of himself, I still think he can win this race. While Integration (#1) is a formidable foe, I’m not convinced he’s going to be able to run his A race when going this short. Instead, I’ll use Trikari (#3) as a backup for Graham Motion. This colt was a sensational story in 2024, winning over a million dollars despite being purchased for only $27,500. He’s also making his 2025 debut today while looking to shake off a dull effort in the Bryan Station here last fall. While that race was listed as a Grade 3, that field was loaded with talented runners. He was strong when winning the Secretariat at Colonial last summer and he held his own when facing older horses in the City of Hope Mile in California. Motion has already pulled off an upset at this meet and many of his horses have felt live. 

Race 10:

We’ll end this card with a nine furlong, $30K maiden claiming race for three year olds and up. From the AE list, both Pastero (#14) and Citizen (#15) are entered in a seven furlong maiden claiming race here tomorrow. They were included in the body of that field, so I’d expect both to run that day instead. Diver (#4) is in this race, but his connections also entered him tomorrow, which may be a tell that is going to opt for that spot as well. I landed on Tavern Time (#12) for Cherie DeVaux and Jose Ortiz. They’re horses haven’t performed all that well early on in this meet and that feels like it has to be a disappointment because many of those runners felt like horses that were serious contenders in their given races. I think returning to the dirt for his second start off the layoff is a strong move for this gelding. I’m willing to draw a complete line through the last start at Turfway where he got tired late. On the opposite end of the gate, Todd Pletcher sends out Abundance (#1) with Irad Ortiz. This duo teamed up to win a nice allowance race with a 6-1 horse on Wednesday. They’re back at it in this race today. He ran into Tappan Street, who was the Florida Derby winner two weeks ago, when making his debut and things didn’t go well. His last two efforts on the turf have been more like it. Whether or not this form can continue on dirt remains to be seen. I don’t want too short of a price, but I do think he’s live. On deeper tickets, Johnson (#9) is a bit of a wild longshot try.  He does seem like a horse that can handle longer distances, so it wouldn’t be shocking to see him rolling over the top late in this one. He was claimed by Barry King who has hit with 2 of 5 runners first off the claim. He’s never been on the dirt before in the afternoon, but he is sired by Empire Maker, which could give him enough of a boost. 

Meet Statistics, Top Pick Winners Through 4-9-25: 

11/39 (28.2%), $81.82 – $2.10 ROI

How to Read the Picks-Grid:

This grid has become my favorite tool for helping to handicap a race card in advance. Keep in mind that these designations for me are flexible and may change depending on how the value in the betting market shifts leading up to post time. 

The “Top Pick” Column is fairly self-explanatory, meaning that it’s the horse that I think will win the race. 

The “A” Column is reserved for the horses that I feel have the best chances of winning. The more horses that are in this column per race, the more wide open I think the race might be. For multi-race wagers, these horses will be on the bulk of my tickets. If I’m betting on the vertical wagers (exactas, trifectas, superfectas), these horses would likely be candidates to be keyed on top.

The “B” Column are horses that I think have a chance of winning, but I don’t like them as much as the runners on the A line. If I put a morning line favorite in this column, I’m trying to find ways to beat them. For me, favorites on the B line typically will either be used underneath in the vertical exotics, or perhaps not at all. They’ll typically be used on some back up tickets in the multi-race wagers, especially in races where the other options aren’t as strong. I might also relegate a horse to the B line if I don’t think there’s good value on that horse with their morning line odds or how I think the race will be bet. For example, If I think a horse should be closer to 5-1, and their morning line odds are 3-1, he might start on the B line for me. If the betting public moves the line closer to the odds that I feel are fair, and I like the horse’s chances, I could move them up when I’m playing the race. 

The “C” Column is reserved as a deep backup for me. Again, if a favorite is on the C line, that’s me telling you that I don’t like them that much in this race. I definitely won’t be using them on top in any vertical wager, as I’ll be trying to beat them with most of my tickets. Sometimes this spot will be reserved for a crazy longshot that checks one of the boxes I might be looking for when playing horses at long odds.