Monmouth Park Full Card Analysis – Sunday 5/31/26 – By Eric Solomon

The month of May wraps up with an eight race card at Monmouth on what should be a beautiful Sunday afternoon. The four turf races on the card will be run on a course where the rails are set at 24 feet this afternoon. First post today is scheduled for 12:50 PM (EDT).

I’ll be covering the Monmouth Park meet for the 6th consecutive year on the ITM Blog, along with posting some updates and thoughts from time to time on Twitter @EricSolomon718. Feel free to reach out!

Race 1:

The day starts off with a beaten $16K-$14K claiming race going 5 ½ furlongs over the turf course. It’s interesting to see Wesley Ward’s name pop up for this race as he has entered Johnny Come Lately (#4) here. This horse has not started since the 2025 Spring Meet at Keeneland and he’ll be taking a major drop in class if he does run in this race. Even though Paco Lopez accepted the mount, I’m a little skeptical that this horse is going to show up. He worked out at Keeneland on Wednesday and going from Lexington, Kentucky to Oceanport, New Jersey is no small trip. There were a handful of Keeneland based horses that came to town yesterday to run in some of the stakes races, so it’s plausible that he joined them on that trip. However, human connections and the class drop are the only reasons to back this runner if he is racing. I think it’s worth trying to beat them here. Identity Crisis (#2) is the logical alternative as he is getting back on the turf for the first time since the summer. He has four starts in turf sprint races and the only dull effort came in a race where he had a stumble at the break, which threw off his whole game when facing some salty New York Breds in allowance company. He was claimed for $35K at the end of the Saratoga meet and he resurfaced five months later at Gulfstream in a sprint on the Tapeta where he was running with only an $8K tag. Delgado reached in to claim him from that race, which was a total fail. Here was improvement in his next start on, which was his first try on the dirt. Delgado shelved him for a few months and now he brings him up North where he can run in some lower level claiming races on the grass. If he can get close to his summer form while returning to the turf, he should beat this bunch. Both Editor’s Choice (#6) and It’s Pizza Time (#7) are scheduled to sprint on the turf for the first time in this race. Both horses have a solid foundation of two turn races, so it’s a little odd at this point in their careers to try a sprint. However, both have respectable turf figures at two turns that are competitive numbers at this level and both figure to be overlooked in the wagering. I think they’;re both more likely as underneath horses, but I could be talked into including them on some deeper, mutli-race plays in hopes of hooking a price. 

Race 2:

Despite his 41% winning percentage at this meet so far, this is another race early in the card where I’m going to take a stand against a Paco Lopez horse. Royal Merit (#2) was dusted by a runaway winner in a $25K-$20K maiden claiming race here three weeks ago. He was clearly second best that day, but there isn’t a lot in his running lines that sparks confidence that he’s going to take a big step forward. I think others have more potential. Kathleen O’Connell sent out a logical second time starter from Tampa yesterday that was moving up in class. She sends out another logical second time starter from Tampa that is getting a bit of class relief here. Cuddy’s Lucky (#7) was 5th as the lukewarm favorite on debut in a maiden special weight contest at the beginning of the month. He’s a modest homebred for Stonehenge LLC, so I don’t mind the drop in class here where he’ll be offered for a $40K tag. His full brother was a winner in his second career start and he was a state bred stakes winner in Florida. I’m not sure this one is as talented, but I think he’s good enough at this level. Mighty Milo (#3) is a four year old son of Mitole that is finally making his way to the track. Juan Avila has decent numbers with firsters and decent numbers with firsters in maiden claiming races. The works aren’t bad in the morning on this course. The dam for this one has two runners that made it to the track. The better of the two runners was competitive in his first start and a winner in his second try. Of the trio of her runners, this one by far has the most talented sire. On deeper tickets, I’ll include Jersey’s the Boss (#6). He’s a three year old making his third career start. He debuted last summer in a state bred maiden allowance race where he finished 4th. He went to the sidelines and resurfaced at that level two weeks ago where he finished 5th. He drops in class, but is still eligible to run without the claiming tag since he was bred in the Garden State. While there is definitely a speed and fade aspect to his game this far, I think this is a spot where he could improve. 

Race 3:

The new, $3 All-Turf Pick-3 (15% takeout) begins with this maiden special weight sprint going 5 ½ furlongs. I’m trying to Paco again as he’s scheduled to ride Draft Riots (#3), who was transferred from Chad Brown to Miguel Clement. He’s sired by War Front, so there’s reason to believe that he’ll like the turf, however, the fact that Brown ran him three times on the dirt and never got him on grass tells me that he might not be as good on the grass. Juan Avila does very well with new acquisitions, and he sends out Souper Document (#4) for the first time. This one was sold earlier in the year for a mere $5K. However, his lone turf try came at Gulfstream in a mile race last October. He showed some early interest and was fighting Jaramillo a bit as he was trying to ration his speed. He makes his first start since November today and he’s facing a field that is not extremely strong for this condition. Story of Rory (#5) is the other one that I’ll try in this race. He was a speed and fade type in his debut at Saratoga when facing state bred maiden allowance types. He went to the sidelines and came back on the dirt at Laurel last month. He was flat in that spot, but I do think he makes some sense while getting back on the grass here.

Race 4:

Six fillies and mares will sprint six furlongs in this beaten $12,500-$10,500 claiming race. No Denying (#1) was really good when beating three rivals in a $10K maiden claiming race on debut here two weeks ago. She is moving up in class to face winners for the first time, but she’s not facing the sharpest group for this condition. She was geared down last time out, so she’s capable of running a better race this afternoon. Madam Prospector (#2) is the other runner I’d use on my tickets in this race. Her lone win came on this course at this distance last year. She’s had some solid efforts since that race, but she hasn’t found the Winner’s Circle since her maiden score. She has gone two turns in all of her races this year, but I think her best efforts have been in sprints. Watch for her to get rolling late in this race. 

Race 5:

The Late Pick-4 begins with a $20K-$18K N3L claiming race going 5 ½ furlongs on the grass. While winning has been a tough feat, Linarite (#7) almost always seems to put in a strong effort, especially when sprinting on the turf. She’s making her first start in over four months this afternoon and she’s getting back on the turf for the first time since October. Even though she’s winless at this distance, she has never finished off the board when going 5 ½ furlongs on the turf and she’s facing the softest group yet at this trip. She’s likes to run on late so if someone gets the jump on her, I assume it’ll be Speightfulelection (#5), who gets back on the turf after a disastrous try on the dirt in her last start. Both of her starts on this course came in 2024 and both of those efforts were sharp. While she didn’t run a step in her last start against lesser on the Tapeta at Gulfstream, the fact that Paco Lopez agreed to retain this mount feels consequential. 

Race 6:

The featured race this afternoon is an optional $15K claiming/N1X allowance race for state bred fillies and mares going 1 mile and 70 yards on the main track. Easy Whirled (#6) seems to have figured out the two turn game in her last few tries. Some of those efforts have been on the turf and, but her try two back at Tampa on the dirt was solid. She’s been close lately and I think she’s sitting on another solid effort at this level today. Diamondinthesand (#3) crossed the finish in front for the first time in her last start two weeks ago, however, after having her number put up via disqualification two back, she’s in search of her third consecutive victory in this race. She clearly likes the local oval, so I can see her running back to her last effort in this race today, despite the hike in class. One Fine Wine (#4) is trying two turns again on the dirt  after a pair of dull efforts in sprint races to start her 2026 campaign. She was a winner in the slop when going one mile here last September in a state bred $100K N2L claiming race. She’ll take money with Paco Lopez riding, but I do think she fits with this group if she can find her 2025 form.

Race 7:

The last turf race of the day is a $22K-$18K claiming race going 5 ½ furlongs. One of my favorite horses in training is Smithwick’s Spice (#6), who is a hard trying, ten year old, New Jersey bred, who specializes in turf sprints. He may have lost a step last year, but at this stage of his career, this is probably the right level of competition. He has five wins in 10 starts on this course and he’s 2-5 at this distance. He likely needed his last start at Tampa against a good group where he didn’t have the best of trips. If he gets a cleaner journey here, I think he’s going to be tough to deal with. I’ll back up with the morning line favorite, Boat’s a Rockin (#2). This horse knows how to win races, scoring in 17 of 51 career starts. His line effort on this oval wasn’t his best, which does make me a little nervous. Michael Simone takes over as the trainer of record and his runners so far have generally been sharp at this meet. 

Race 8:

We’ll end the week with a six furlong sprint for beaten $5K claimers. Cassation (#6) has races good enough to score at this level. His last start where he finished 3rd at long odds, was solid over this oval. He might regress after that effort, but I’m inclined to believe that his poor form came at Parx where some horses just don’t put their best feet forward. Despite his 1-15 record on this track, I’ll back him to win in this race. Levee Was Dry (#7) has been weak in his last two tries at Parx. His effort three back was an example of what he can do with the right trip. He was sharper in 2026, but the chance that he could pick things back up remains. President Z (#8) is a deeper tickets play in this race. He was a little flat in his first start back after a year long layoff. He’ll need to move forward off that race, but I don’t think that’s an impossible task, especially considering this group that he’s up against. 

Meet Statistics: Top Pick Winners 17/63 (27.0%), $105.90 ($1.68 ROI)

Data for Winners Last Start

A data point that I’ve been collecting over the last several years is trying to track which tracks/circuits are producing winners early on at the Monmouth Meet. Tampa runners have fared very well here over the last two seasons. There has also been a downward trend with New York shippers early in the meet here over the last few seasons, so that is something worth paying attention to as well in 2026.

Turf Data for Each Rail Setting

I kept data from every turf race at the 2024 and the 2025 meeting to see if there were any trends on the turf at any of the various rail positions. I tried to quantify the data below and in 2024, it appears that the farther the rails go out, the more fair the track plays. Lead indicates that a horse won the race in wire to wire fashion. Stalk indicates that they were within five lengths of the leader at the first call in the race. For the purposes of this data set, a closer is a horse that rallied from five lengths or more behind the leader at any point of call in the race. The closer stats are listed next to the rail settings. I’ll continue to track this data for 2026 to see if this trend continues. 

2024-2025 Post Position Data From This Rail Setting

Posts 1-3: 21 winners in 58 races in 2024 / 19 winners in 48 races in 2025

Posts 4-6: 24 winners in 58 races in 2024 / 17 winners in 48 races in 2025

Posts 7-9: 13 winners in 54 races in 2024 / 12 winners in 41 races in 2025

Posts 10+: 0 winner from 13 races in 2024 / 0 winners in 4 races in 2025

24 Feet (In 2024, 14/54, 25.9% of the winners were CLOSERS)

2025 Data

24 Feet (2026)

36 Feet